109
FXUS63 KMPX 041126
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
526 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMEST AFTERNOON OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S SATURDAY & SUNDAY.
- BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (AND POSSIBLY SNOW) ARRIVES
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
IT'S A FAIRLY CALM AND QUIET START TO TUESDAY ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SATELLITE CAPTURES A STRATUS DECK MOVING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. THIS STRATUS IS LOCATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF BROAD MID-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS REGION OF
WARM ADVECTION PRECEDES A SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND SPAWN A SURFACE LOW
THAT WILL TRAVERSE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A NICE DAY AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW, AS INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
WARM TEMPERATURES TO ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S) THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUNSHINE FILTERED THROUGH AN INCREASING TREND OF
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER SUNSET. RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS
FEATURE ARE TIED TO FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL WARM
FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO SETUP ACROSS NORTHERN MN. AS SUCH,
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY LOCALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MORE NOTABLE CHANGES FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER
PERSPECTIVE WILL BE TIED TO THE REGION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT
WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF
WEDNESDAY. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 25-30 MPH ACROSS SOUTHERN MN THROUGH THE MORNING, ULTIMATELY
WORKING TO USHER IN COOLER AIR. WINDS WILL RELAX AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE REGION, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RUN COOLER THAN TODAY
(UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S).
A RATHER UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SEND A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND START OF THE WEEKEND. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS SET TO BE LOCATED ACROSS ND. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHERN MN/WI AND DEEPEN TO A MID-990S MB
SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SINCE THE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK IN A GENERAL EASTWARD
DIRECTION TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WE'LL LOOK TO MISS OUT
ON ANY APPRECIABLE WARM ADVECTION/DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION. THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE ANY RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT IN WESTERN WI, WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROFILES MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY SATURATED BY LATER IN THE EVENING. EVEN SO,
ENSEMBLES TEND TO FAVOR MORE OF CENTRAL WI (AND EAST) FOR THE MORE
LIKELY RAINFALL FOOTPRINT. THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR DOWN FROM CANADA, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD 40S
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS.
BY FRIDAY EVENING, FOCUS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE SERIES BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. THIS COMPACT WAVE PRESENTS AS THE "CLIPPER" WINTER WEATHER
MAKER ARCHETYPE. THESE SYSTEMS CAN BE A BIT TRICKY TO NAIL DOWN
TRACK WISE IN THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD (OR EVEN SOONER!) AS THE DEGREE BY
WHICH THE WAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD/IS SUPPRESSED IS VERY RELIANT ON
SURROUNDING FEATURES. IN ADDITION, WE'RE ALSO EVALUATING TIMING
DIFFERENCES THAT WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE P-TYPE OUTCOMES.
HOWEVER, AS REFERENCED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, WE'LL LIKELY BE
LOOKING AT AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS/BANDED PRECIPITATION
(POSSIBLY SNOWFALL) ACROSS A PORTION OF THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
SATURDAY. JUST 24-HOURS AGO THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAD SUPPORTED
THE PRECIPITATION BAND SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL MN/ROUGHLY THE
I-94 CORRIDOR. GUIDANCE TELLS A DIFFERENT STORY THIS MORNING,
WITH MUCH OF THE 00Z SUITE ADVERTISING THE CLIPPER DIGGING
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN SD/NORTHERN IA, WHICH WOULD
PLACE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FOOTPRINT TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. WITH THAT SAID, MORE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE TRACK
ARE LIKELY, SO WE'LL CONTINUE TO LEAN ON A BLENDED SOLUTION IN
THE GRIDS. SHOULD THE TIMING STAY NEAR THE CURRENT CONSENSUS,
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE OCCURRING DURING PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING (SATURDAY MIDDAY OR SO) WHICH WOULD LIKELY LIMIT THE
CEILING FOR SNOW POTENTIAL. IF YOU PUT ALL THE PIECES TOGETHER,
THE CURRENT FORECAST (40-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX)
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN SEEMS REASONABLE -- WITH THE FINER DETAILS
STILL A COUPLE OF DAYS AWAY. OF MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IS THE
COLD AIR THAT WILL FLOW SOUTH FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM. LATEST NBM
FEATURES HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THAT, LONG TERM ENSEMBLES
HINT AT A REBOUND TO MORE MILD NOVEMBER AIR BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
SATELLITE REVEALS AN EXPANSIVE VFR STRATUS DECK OVER
STC/MSP/RNH/EAU, ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST OVER
AXN/RWF/MKT. THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND
GRADUALLY ERODE WITH TIME THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10KTS BY MID-MORNING.
EARLY AFTERNOON GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY, BUT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE
AVIATION CONCERN. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT AND
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE WNW TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
LOW. CIGS MAY DIP TO LOW VFR FOR A SHORT WINDOW TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND SE 10-15G25KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHSN/-SHRA POSSIBLE. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...STRUS
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