690
FXUS63 KMPX 042333
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
533 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING BREEZY TOMORROW MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S SATURDAY & SUNDAY.
- BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (AND POSSIBLY SNOW) ARRIVES
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
IT'S A BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES ECLIPSING THE 60
DEGREE MARK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON.
A DEVELOPING LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT, MAINLY JUST DEVELOPING INCREASED
CLOUD COVER. THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR RAIN WILL STAY NORTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW, KEEPING MOST OF DRY FOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GUSTS WITHIN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30
MPH. SOME OF THE STRONGEST GUSTS MAY ACTUALLY COME IN THE
MORNING AS THE FRONT INITIALLY MOVES THROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE LOW, ALLOWING SKIES
TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO DECREASE BY TOMORROW EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONABLE INTO THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN THURSDAY OUT OF THE SOUTH, UP TO AROUND 30 MPH. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES CRASHING DOWN AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND THOUGH. WITH THE FIRST WAVE, GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO FAVOR ANY PRECIP DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT TO BE
FURTHER INTO WISCONSIN THURSDAY EVENING.
THE SECOND, AND MORE LIKELY MORE ROBUST WAVE WILL TRACK DOWN
FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
CLIPPER WILL BRING OUR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUING TO HINT
AT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEING LIKELY MUCH OF SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE, WITH THE SOUTHERN
TRACK BEING FAVORED, KEEPING THE FOOTPRINT OF THE HIGHEST QPF
NEAR THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER. TIMING OF PRECIPITATION KEEPS A
SIMILAR SCENARIO WITH THE PEAK OF DAYTIME HEATING POTENTIALLY
LIMITING THE SNOW POTENTIAL. A LOT OF THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW
STRONG OF A PUSH OF COOL AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THAT FIRST WAVE ON
THURSDAY.
THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
QUITE COOL TO START THE WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING, WITH MONDAY MORNING LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE TEENS. WITH WINDS BEING BREEZY EACH DAY, IT
WILL DEFINITELY FEEL COLD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A MID LEVEL DECK
HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL STICK AROUND
OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A SCATTERED DECK AROUND 3-4KFT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ALONG THE COLD FRONT. ANY LOWER STRATUS WILL
MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO START AOB 10KTS BEFORE A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT WILL LEAD TO A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTS 25-30KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND SE 10-15G25KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHSN/-SHRA POSSIBLE. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BPH
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