499
FXUS63 KMPX 050853
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
253 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 30S.
- HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD FALLING OVER SOUTHWEST MN INTO NORTHERN IA. A MIX OR
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE MPX AREA BY SUNRISE. THIS FRONT
WILL TAKE THE HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH IT, BUT THE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE
WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SEE HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S TODAY. BEHIND
THIS FRONT, WE'VE SEEN 2 OR 3 HOURS OF WIND GUSTS OF 30-35MPH,
THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE DOWN A BIT BY SUNRISE. ALL-IN-
ALL, FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS, IT WILL BE ANOTHER STELLAR WEATHER DAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, DECREASING WINDS, AND THOSE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.
OUR ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO FEATURE
ANOTHER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MN. FROM THE
PRECIPITATION DEPARTMENT, MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND EAST ON WHEN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT RAIN WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE FRONT,
WITH IT LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS WILL BE A DRY FROPA FOR THE
ENTIRETY OF THE MPX AREA. THE NBM ONLY HAS POPS LEFT IN WI THURSDAY
EVENING AND EVEN THERE, THEY ARE DOWN TO 20%. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
BREEZY ONE THOUGH, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LLJ
WILL SEND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH ON
THURSDAY, THEN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THAT, WE'LL SEE SIMILAR WIND
SPEEDS ON FRIDAY, THOUGH THIS TIME OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS WE SEE A
STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR OUT OF CANADA INTO THE REGION, SETTING THE
STAGE FOR OUR FIRST POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS FOR THE WEEKEND, WE STILL LOOK TO SEE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM DIVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SETUP ALONG THIS SHORTWAVES PATH, SETTING UP A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A BANDED PRECIPITATION EVENT. IT APPEARS
MODELS ARE STARTING TO LOCK IN ON THE PATH FOR THIS SYSTEM AND IT IS
A MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE, WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FALLING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN INTO NORTHERN IOWA. IT SHOULD BE PLENTY COLD
ENOUGH TO START TURNING RAIN OVER TO SNOW IN THE MPX AREA. HOWEVER,
WE'RE LOOKING TO HAVE LESS AND LESS QPF TO TURN OVER TO SNOW AT THE
MOMENT. STILL, FOLKS DOWN ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR HAVE THEIR CHANCES
LOOKING UP FOR SEEING THEIR FIRST SLUSHY ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE
SEASON. FOR US, THE BIGGER STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE COLD AIR
COMING IN ITS WAKE. BY SUNDAY, H85 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING 10-15C
BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS SUNDAY CONTINUING TO TAKE A HIT IN THE NBM,
WITH JUST GETTING ABOVE FREEZING LOOKING TOUGH TO ACHIEVE NOW. ALSO
COLD ARE THE LOWS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE OUR FIRST PREVIEW OF
WINTER TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON, BUT IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN MONDAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE BACK
INTO THE 40S AND 50S FROM TUESDAY ON NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HINTS OF A LOW
VFR/HIGH MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
BETWEEN 2KFT AND 4KFT. THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF STINT OF MVFR
FOR OUR NORTHERN SITES, BUT I'VE KEPT IT SCT FOR MOST SITES.
ANY LOWER STRATUS WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY WITH CLEARING BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO START AOB 10KTS
BEFORE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND MIDNIGHT WILL LEAD TO A
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTS
25-30KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND SE 10-15G25KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
SAT...VFR WITH MVFR/-SHSN/-SHRA POSSIBLE. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...BPH
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