557
FXUS63 KMPX 051724
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1124 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 30S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL BE IN THE 30S.
- HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SATURDAY CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD FALLING OVER SOUTHWEST MN INTO NORTHERN IA. A MIX OR
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW STILL LOOKS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE MPX AREA BY SUNRISE. THIS
FRONT WILL TAKE THE HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH IT, BUT THE AIRMASS
IN ITS WAKE WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SEE HIGHS BACK IN THE
50S TODAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, WE'VE SEEN 2 OR 3 HOURS OF WIND
GUSTS OF 30-35MPH, THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE DOWN A
BIT BY SUNRISE. ALL-IN- ALL, FOR NOVEMBER STANDARDS, IT WILL BE
ANOTHER STELLAR WEATHER DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, DECREASING
WINDS, AND THOSE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
OUR ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO
FEATURE ANOTHER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
MN. FROM THE PRECIPITATION DEPARTMENT, MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
EAST ON WHEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT RAIN WILL ARRIVE
ALONG THE FRONT, WITH IT LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS WILL
BE A DRY FROPA FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE MPX AREA. THE NBM ONLY
HAS POPS LEFT IN WI THURSDAY EVENING AND EVEN THERE, THEY ARE
DOWN TO 20%. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A BREEZY ONE THOUGH, A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LLJ WILL SEND
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH ON
THURSDAY, THEN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THAT, WE'LL SEE SIMILAR WIND
SPEEDS ON FRIDAY, THOUGH THIS TIME OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS WE
SEE A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR OUT OF CANADA INTO THE REGION,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR OUR FIRST POTENTIAL SNOW MAKER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
AS FOR THE WEEKEND, WE STILL LOOK TO SEE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT. A
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SETUP ALONG THIS SHORTWAVES PATH,
SETTING UP A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A BANDED PRECIPITATION
EVENT. IT APPEARS MODELS ARE STARTING TO LOCK IN ON THE PATH FOR
THIS SYSTEM AND IT IS A MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE, WITH THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FALLING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN INTO NORTHERN
IOWA. IT SHOULD BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO START TURNING RAIN OVER
TO SNOW IN THE MPX AREA. HOWEVER, WE'RE LOOKING TO HAVE LESS
AND LESS QPF TO TURN OVER TO SNOW AT THE MOMENT. STILL, FOLKS
DOWN ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR HAVE THEIR CHANCES LOOKING UP FOR
SEEING THEIR FIRST SLUSHY ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON. FOR
US, THE BIGGER STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE COLD AIR COMING IN
ITS WAKE. BY SUNDAY, H85 TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING 10-15C BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS SUNDAY CONTINUING TO TAKE A HIT IN THE NBM,
WITH JUST GETTING ABOVE FREEZING LOOKING TOUGH TO ACHIEVE NOW.
ALSO COLD ARE THE LOWS, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE TEENS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THIS WILL DEFINITELY BE OUR
FIRST PREVIEW OF WINTER TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON, BUT IT WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN MONDAY, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S FROM TUESDAY ON NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
SOLID VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF DURATION. SKC
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN HIGH
CLOUDS START FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST WITH STEADILY INCREASING
COVERAGE. HIGH CEILINGS LIKELY FROM AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY. BREEZY/GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF THIS EVENING, THEN PICK UP AGAIN
FROM THE SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TO AGAIN BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC P.M. MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
SAT...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY. CHANCE -SHRA/-SHSN. WIND NE
5-10KTS BECOMING N.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...JPC
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