655
FXUS63 KMPX 060415
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1015 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND CLOUD THURSDAY, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
MAINLY WESTERN WI FRIDAY.
- QUICK MOVING SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW ON SATURDAY,
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA
RIVER IN SOUTHWESTERN MN.
- QUIET BUT COOLER WEATHER RETURNS AFTER SATURDAY SYSTEM, WITH
LOWS SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNING DROPPING INTO THE TEENS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRETY OF THE MPX CWA THANKS TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONGSIDE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION, AS TEMPERATURES ARE REACHING INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
MIXING DOWN AS A RESULT OF THE SUNSHINE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-
25MPH, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE AREA AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM INCOMING
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL OVERNIGHT WITH
SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, REMAINING BREEZY DUE THE
FORMATION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE DAKOTAS BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30MPH FOR MOST OF THE AREA INCREASING TO 35-
40MPH IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MN ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THIS WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY FRIDAY, WITH LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR DUE TO PRECEDING COLD AIR ADVECTION AND LOWER DEW POINTS
EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER THE RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING. THIS CHANGES
SOMEWHAT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS AS IT REACHES LAKE MICHIGAN, RESULTING IN AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR WESTERN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
AROUND THE SAME TIME, SO THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A
SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE RELATIVELY DRY NBM AS ALL OF THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES SHOW A GOOD SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
RAIN IN EAU CLAIRE BY 00Z SATURDAY.
THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER OF THE PERIOD ARRIVES SATURDAY MORNING IN
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE COMBINES WITH
INCREASING SATURATION DUE TO COOLING TEMPERATURES AMIDST CAA TO
SUFFICIENTLY MOISTEN THE DGZ TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SHORTWAVE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM SOUTHWESTERN TO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SHOW A THERMAL PROFILE COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING
WITH OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ, ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT DENDRITE
PRODUCTION AND LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MINNESOTA
RIVER. THE EARLIEST SHOWERS BEGIN AROUND SUNRISE IN SOUTHWESTERN MN
BEFORE SPREADING THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA AS THE
SHORTWAVE DIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH A RELATIVELY TIGHT GRADIENT
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE FORCING SUCH THAT THE CUTOFF WILL BE
FAIRLY SHARP BETWEEN AREAS THAT SEE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW
AND THOSE THAT SEE NOTHING. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS COULD END UP TO
AROUND AN INCH TOTAL FOR THE SYSTEM, BUT LIKELY NOT ACCUMULATING AN
ACTUAL INCH ON THE GROUND AS THE FIRST FEW HOURS MAY NEED TO
OVERCOME SOME ABOVE FREEZING GROUND TEMPERATURES TO ACTUALLY BEGIN
TO STICK. STILL, THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE OUR FIRST ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON FOR OUR COVERAGE AREA, WITH NOTICEABLE FLAKES
FLYING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE CURRENT GRADIENT
WOULD KEEP ALL SNOW OUT OF THE TWIN CITIES METRO, HOWEVER AREAS OF
SOUTHERN CARVER/DAKOTA/SCOTT COUNTIES MAY END UP ACCUMULATING A FEW
TENTHS AS THE GRADIENT QUICKLY DECREASES NORTH OF THIS LINE. THE
MOST LIKELY SPOTS TO SEE AROUND AN INCH OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION LOOK
TO BE SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA, GENERALLY INCLUDING AND SOUTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM LAC QUI PARLE TO STEELE COUNTIES INCLUDING REDWOOD FALLS
AND MANKATO. THE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
EVENING, RESULTING IN THE END OF SNOW SHOWERS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LINGER FOR A
FEW DAYS AFTERWARDS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE COLD WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH ABOVE FREEZING AND LOWS IN THE TEENS ON THE HEELS OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH DEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THIS
COLD STRETCH WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK
INTO THE UPPER 40S BY TUESDAY THANKS TO LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND SUNSHINE RETURNING. ANY SNOW THAT STUCK AROUND THROUGH MONDAY IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT BY TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A MID-HIGH CLOUD DECK
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, INCREASING IN COVERAGE
BY DAYBREAK. MID TO HIGH CEILINGS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THIS
AFTERNOON & EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TO START THE PERIOD
BEFORE STRONG SE WINDS RAMP UP AFTER DAYBREAK. GUSTY WINDS ARE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THURSDAY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH
PEAK GUSTS AROUND 30KTS. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY THEN TO THE
SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY EVENING AND WESTERLY BY THE END OF THE
TAF AFTER A DRY FROPA.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...CHC P.M. MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
SAT...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY. CHANCE -SHRA/-SHSN. WIND NE
5-10KTS BECOMING N.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...BPH
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