491
FXUS63 KMPX 061100
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
500 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH TODAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN.
- WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING THE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER WEATHER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.
- COLD END TO THE WEEKEND, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WARMING UP NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
TODAY - FRIDAY NIGHT...GOES MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR LOOP DISPLAYS A
REGION OF BROAD ASCENT BLOSSOMING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE REGION OF ASCENT WILL SHIFT EAST BY WAY OF A
SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS
TODAY. RESULTANT SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST FROM CENTRAL
ND THROUGH NORTHERN MN THROUGH THE DAY AND DEEPEN TO ROUGHLY MID-
990S MB OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND
SHOULD SUPPORT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT MECHANICAL MIXING
UP TO ROUGHLY 3-4K FEET PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE STRONGEST GUSTS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. BEYOND THE WINDS IT WILL BE ANOTHER
MILD DAY BY EARLY NOVEMBER STANDARDS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID-50S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS
THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH THANKS TO A WEDGE OF DRY LOW-
LEVEL AIR ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW
RAINDROPS ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI. THE MATURING SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW,
ALLOWING NW FLOW TO ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
FRIDAY'S HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH OF I-94 TO THE LOW 50S
ALONG I-90. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FOR SPRINKLES
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN AS A TRAILING VORT LOBE DIGS SOUTHEAST
TROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY WINTER WEATHER MAKER...BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, A REMNANT
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY I-80 IN IA BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARDS THE SD/NE BORDER. OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT,
AN UPPER-TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY CONTINUE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. AT THE MID-LEVELS, TWO EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BE THE KEY
FEATURE THAT WILL SPAWN WINTRY PRECIPITATION. AS OF 12Z SATURDAY,
THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE PLACES THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE OVER ND AND THE
SOUTHERN WAVE OVER NE. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY
SATURDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE,
THOUGH IT IS THE SOUTHERN WAVE WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER BEHIND
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED POSITION OF THE REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE IS KEY, AS IT
WILL ESSENTIALLY PROVIDE THE TRACKS FOR THE SOUTHERN WAVE TO ADVANCE
ALONG. FGEN/WAA PRECIP NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA SATURDAY, THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW
MODEL SUITES TO CONSIDER. THE FIRST HAS BEEN A GENERAL SOUTHWARD
(CENTRAL/NORTHERN IA) TREND IN THE MAIN QPF AXIS THAT IS REFLECTED
BY MUCH OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE GFS/ECMWF/AIFS. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE EARLY LOOK AT A CAM SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE RRFS
TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. THE RRFS IS ONE OF PARTICULAR INTEREST
IN THAT IT NOT ONLY IS FARTHER NORTH, BUT IT IS ALSO DISPLAYS
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR A BANDED SNOWFALL EVENT LARGELY DRIVEN BY
STRONGER FRONTOGENESIS. SUCH A SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT A NARROW BAND
OF HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL. ON THE FLIP SIDE, YOU CAN FIND
SOLUTIONS LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY LAYER ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND SUGGESTS MORE RAIN THAN SNOW (LIKELY
A FACTOR OF THE DIURNAL TIME SCALE).
OUR LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO TAKE A BLENDED APPROACH, WHICH
INCLUDES A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH (OR
SO) OF SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN. WE'LL NEED
TO RELY ON FORTHCOMING RUNS OF THE HI-RES MODELS TO EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BANDED SNOW SCENARIO LIKE THE RRFS IS HINTING AT. IN
ADDITION, WE'LL CONTINUE TO WORKSHOP THE ANTICIPATED TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW AS THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY LARGE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS (WHICH GREATLY IMPACTS RESIDENCE
TIME IN EACH P-TYPE BIN AND POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED PRECIPITATION
RATES). FINALLY, STRONG COLD ADVECTION TRAILING WHATEVER P-TYPE THAT
FALLS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AT LEAST A SOME SLICK TRAVEL LATER
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN, SO THAT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. FOR THOSE IN THE TC METRO HOPING FOR SNOW ON
SATURDAY, WE'LL PROBABLY HAVE SOME FLAKES FLYING THOUGH NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST FROM
CARVER/SCOTT COUNTIES AND SOUTH.
SUNDAY ONWARD...VERY COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS, CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB
TEMP ANOMALIES OF -12 TO -15C, WILL EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOLLOWING SATURDAY'S ROUND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. NBM HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD AND NOW FEATURES MORNING LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS SUNDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
BEYOND THE FREEZING MARK! WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL FOLLOW
HEADING INTO MONDAY. FOLLOWING AN AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
OPEN THE WORK WEEK, LARGE SCALE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE SPARSE AS THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL BE NORTH OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG AT EAU, SO INTRODUCED A TEMPO TO ADDRESS THIS
OCCURRENCE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN
AVIATION FOCUS DURING THE 12Z PERIOD WILL BE STRONG SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30KTS FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING. IN
ADDITION, HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF LLWS AT RWF THIS MORNING
AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JUST MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING AND WILL RESULT IN A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR, CHC MVFR. CHANCE -SHRA/-SHSN. WIND NE TO NW 5-15KTS
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND W 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...STRUS
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