999
FXUS63 KMPX 062329
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
529 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL TURN WESTERLY TONIGHT
AND NORTHWEST TOMORROW BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE STRONGEST
GUSTS OF 30- 40MPH WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND FAR
SOUTHERN MN.
- SATURDAY WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING THE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER
WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. SLUSHY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.
- COLD TEMPERATURES SATURDAY-MONDAY WITH AND BEHIND THIS SYSTEM,
THEN TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER EASTERN SD, WITH A LEADING WARM
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN IA, AND ITS TRAILING COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
LINGERS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A DEVELOPING LOW CENTER OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. EACH OF THESE LOWS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH, THE SOUTHERN LOW WITH A NORTH-
SOUTH TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN
LOW WITH A TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP H5 LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM, A SHARP RIDGE
AXIS IS SET UP OVER THE ROCKIES BUT IMMEDIATELY ON ITS HEELS IS
A DEEP LARGE LOW MOVING ONSHORE SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. THESE
WESTERN CONUS FEATURES WILL BE AT PLAY FOR THE WELL-ADVERTISED
SLUSHY SNOW FOR SOUTHERN MN ON SATURDAY.
BEFORE WE GET THERE, DEEP MIXING AND COMPACTED PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SOUTHERN LOW FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF THE
NORTHERN COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE
DIRECTIONS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM S TODAY TO W TONIGHT AND NW
TOMORROW, DEEP MIXING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ALONG WITH THE
TIGHTENED GRADIENTS WILL HELP MAINTAIN SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE
15-25MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-40MPH RANGE. HIGHEST SPEEDS
WILL BE RECORDED IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX
COVERAGE AREA. IN ADDITION, WEAK FRONTAL LIFTING MAY BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN DIURNAL RAIN SHOWERS TODAY
OVER WESTERN-CENTRAL MN AND TOMORROW OVER FAR EASTERN MN INTO
WESTERN WI. HOWEVER, WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING A DEEP AND
PERSISTENT DRY LAYER UP TO ABOUT H7 (~10KFT), GETTING THOSE
RADAR ECHOES TO BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE AS PRECIPITATION WILL
BE HARD TO COME BY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COLLAPSES AS IT MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS. STILL, SOLID N TO NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A PATHWAY TO
ALLOW EFFECTIVE CAA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STARTING FRIDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OUR REGION AS BEEN EXPERIENCING SINCE THE START OF
NOVEMBER.
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING, A COMPACT LOBE SHORTWAVE,
EMANATING FROM THE LARGE LOW MOVING ONSHORE WESTERN NOAM, WILL
SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE ITS SURFACE REFLECTION LOW
PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES SOUTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE
ALOFT. COPIOUS PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BE DRAGGED INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH THESE FEATURES, WORKING WITHIN A TEMPERATURE REGIME
ALREADY WELL BELOW NORMAL TO SET THE STAGE FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THIS SATURDAY. MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BANDS OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN AND FAR
SOUTHERN MN, AND THIS IDEA HAS BEEN FAIRLY STEADY THE PAST 2- 3
DAYS, THUS THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY AT THIS POINT TO THINK
THAT THE MOST IMPACTFUL SNOW WILL BE MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN
I-90 WITHIN OUR COVERAGE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH THE LOW COMING OFF
MT/WY, BUT A QUICKLY-DEVELOPING LOW OVER KS/NE WILL TAKE OVER
FOR THIS SYSTEM, BEING SLINGSHOT ENE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY MIDDAY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TIMING WILL LIMIT THE
DURATION OF ANY SNOWFALL TO MAINLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY,
WHICH MAY ALSO MAKE THE PRECIPITATION SUSCEPTIBLE TO MIXING WITH
RAIN (NO SLEET/FZRA IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE DEEP MOISTURE
PROFILE ALL REMAINING BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
35-38 DEGREE RANGE WHERE MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL BE DEVELOPING).
THE RELATIVE MAX OF SNOWFALL LOOKS TO OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM MADISON MN TO MANKATO MN TO ALBERT LEA MN, WITH UP
TO AROUND A SLUSHY 1" OF ACCUMULATION, MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS
AND POSSIBLY SIDEWALKS. THE PRECIPITATION OVERALL WILL WIND DOWN
FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE NEXT
POTENTIAL CONCERN WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S, WHICH MAY ALLOW THE RAIN AND WET SNOW TO
FREEZE OVER ON SURFACES. AND AS WAS ALLUDED TO IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, THOSE IN THE 7-COUNTY TC METRO LOOKING FOR SNOW WILL
NOT BE IMPRESSED, WITH ONLY MAYBE SOUTHERN CARVER, SCOTT AND
DAKOTA COUNTIES HAVING ANY POTENTIAL FOR FALLING SNOW, LITTLE AS
IT MAY BE.
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE RESIDUAL COLD
AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DUE TO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE
PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. A LARGE RIDGE WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS TO THE ROCKIES, WHILE THE HUDSON BAY LOW MOVES OFF
THE WATER AND DRIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES INTO AN
OPEN TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL KEEP NNW FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY WHILE A MODIFIED CENTRAL-CANADIAN
COLD AIR HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS SLIDES SOUTHWARD. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BARELY REACH THE FREEZING MARK WHILE LOWS SUNDAY MORNING
AND MONDAY MORNING PLUNGE TO THE TEENS. TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
STARTS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH SHIFTS
TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE WESTERN RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS, CUTTING OFF THE COLDER CANADIAN AIR AND ALLOWING
WARMER SOUTHWEST CONUS AIR WELL NORTHWARD. THUS, HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL SURGE TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH THOSE HIGHS
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN ADDITION, NO
PRECIPITATION SIGNALS ARE EVIDENT BEYOND THE SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 507 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE NEAR TAF ISSUANCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY THEN WESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE
FINAL WIND SHIFT WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER DAYBREAK.
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN MVFR CIGS LIKELY
ARRIVING FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MVFR CIGS LIKELY
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF. SOME WEATHER MODELS SUPPORT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO DEVELOPING WITHIN THE CAA REGIME
TOMORROW, BUT THE PROBABILITY THE SHOWERS MATERIALIZE AND
IMPACT A TERMINAL IS VERY LOW.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR, CHC MVFR. CHC -SN. WIND NE TO NW 5-15KTS
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND W 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...BPH
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