126
FXUS63 KMPX 071753
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1153 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY AND COOLER TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES.
- OUR FIRST TASTE OF WINTER-LIKE WEATHER ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF
A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY SATURDAY. UP TO A HALF INCH OF SLUSHY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA.
- MUCH COLDER AIR SETTLES IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE WARMING BACK TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS HAS CLEARED OUR WESTERN WISCONSIN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. AS YOU HEAD EAST,
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 40S INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN, BUT SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO FALL INTO THE 30S
BEFORE DAYBREAK. THESE CLEAR SKIES WON'T LAST FOR LONG TODAY AS
A SECOND, STRONGER COLD FRONT SENDS A STRATUS DECK DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND CAA BEHIND THESE TWO FRONTS.
THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT, BUT THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY WIN
OUT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO OUR SATURDAY CLIPPER SYSTEM. YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE DAKOTAS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING,
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS NOW AND PLACES THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA. AREAS ALONG I-
90 AND THE WESTERN MINNESOTA RIVER VALLEY MAY SEE UP TO A HALF INCH
OF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SOME NON-ACCUMULATING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE TWIN
CITIES. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES COULD
FALL OUT IN OUR FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES, BUT GENERALLY SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE DRY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REINFORCE THE COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH LEADING TO
WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
WE'LL START THE WEEK WITH HIGHS JUST ABOVE FREEZING, BUT WILL
QUICKLY WARM BACK TO MID NOVEMBER NORMALS (AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL) BY TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY, WITH
ONLY A WEAK SHORTWAVE OR TWO PASSING TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
MAKE A RUN AT THE MID 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LIKELY THIS EVENING. A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON &
OVERNIGHT, BUT PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN & SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR MVFR SNOWFALL & A
DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION AT RWF & MKT. ELSEWHERE, CLOUDS WILL
FILL BACK IN BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW & HOVER AROUND THE MVFR/VFR
THRESHOLD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST UP TO 20-25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 5 KTS TONIGHT AND DIRECTION BECOMING
NORTHERLY THIS EVENING & EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
KMSP...CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 2500 FT OR LESS
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH A FEW SPORADIC BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
9-10 PM, WITH CEILINGS MOST LIKELY REMAINING VFR THROUGH
SATURDAY. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND W 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND WSW 10-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...ETA
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