497
FXUS63 KMPX 072015
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
215 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY. ACCUMULATION
OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.
- MUCH COLDER AIR SETTLES IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE WARMING BACK TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE
DAY HAS MOVED ON TO THE SOUTHEAST LEAVING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER COMPACT SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ALONG THE MONTANA/ALBERTA BORDER WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
MT TO CENTRAL SD TONIGHT, THEN WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND LOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER NEB
AND HEAD EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, THEN AS THE
NORTHERN LOW DISSIPATES, THE SNOW WILL REFOCUS TO THE NORTH OF
THE SECOND LOW CENTER. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTHWEST OF THE MN RIVER IN SOUTHWESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT, THEN
SOMEWHAT STEADIER SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS
OF MN SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WETBULB TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE EVENT WILL BE COLDER THAN 34F SO PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
WILL BE SNOW. HOWEVER, THESE MARGINAL WETBULB TEMPS SHOULD MAKE
IT HARD TO ACCUMULATE IN ANY MEANINGFUL WAY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE LIGHT RATES. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR AN INCH OR
LESS ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. POPS FARTHER NORTH ALSO
REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH SLIGHTS EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT THE
I-94 CORRIDOR. SOME MODELS DO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS ENOUGH
THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR, SO WASN'T CONFIDENT
TO TAKE IT OUT. NEVERTHELESS, MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND
EVEN LIGHTER RATES WILL RESULT IN NO IMPACTS SHOULD AN HOUR OR
TWO OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MATERIALIZE.
A 1040 MB HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN ROCKIES
FOR SUNDAY, BRINGING US OUR FIRST SHOT AT WINTER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE SEASON. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN AND SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR MIDWEEK,
ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO BRING QUICKLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES
MIDWEEK. A MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK NORTH INTO CANADA, ENSURING THE QUIET
AND WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO MID NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LIKELY THIS EVENING. A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON &
OVERNIGHT, BUT PERSISTENT VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
UNTIL TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN &
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR MVFR SNOWFALL & A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION AT RWF & MKT.
ELSEWHERE, CLOUDS WILL FILL BACK IN BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW & HOVER
AROUND THE MVFR/VFR THRESHOLD. NORTHWEST WINDS GUST UP TO 20-25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 5 KTS TONIGHT
AND DIRECTION BECOMING NORTHERLY THIS EVENING & EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTERLY TOMORROW MORNING.
KMSP...CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 2500 FT OR LESS
THROUGH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH A FEW SPORADIC BREAKS IN THE LOW
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY
9-10 PM, WITH CEILINGS MOST LIKELY REMAINING VFR THROUGH
SATURDAY. A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND W 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND WSW 10-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...ETA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page