700
FXUS63 KMPX 080542
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1142 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY. ACCUMULATION
OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.
- MUCH COLDER AIR SETTLES IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE WARMING BACK TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE
DAY HAS MOVED ON TO THE SOUTHEAST LEAVING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER COMPACT SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ALONG THE MONTANA/ALBERTA BORDER WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
MT TO CENTRAL SD TONIGHT, THEN WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND LOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER NEB
AND HEAD EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, THEN AS THE
NORTHERN LOW DISSIPATES, THE SNOW WILL REFOCUS TO THE NORTH OF
THE SECOND LOW CENTER. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
SOUTHWEST OF THE MN RIVER IN SOUTHWESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT, THEN
SOMEWHAT STEADIER SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS
OF MN SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WETBULB TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE EVENT WILL BE COLDER THAN 34F SO PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
WILL BE SNOW. HOWEVER, THESE MARGINAL WETBULB TEMPS SHOULD MAKE
IT HARD TO ACCUMULATE IN ANY MEANINGFUL WAY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE LIGHT RATES. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR AN INCH OR
LESS ACCUMULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. POPS FARTHER NORTH ALSO
REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED WITH SLIGHTS EXTENDING UP TO ABOUT THE
I-94 CORRIDOR. SOME MODELS DO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS ENOUGH
THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW MAY OCCUR, SO WASN'T CONFIDENT
TO TAKE IT OUT. NEVERTHELESS, MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND
EVEN LIGHTER RATES WILL RESULT IN NO IMPACTS SHOULD AN HOUR OR
TWO OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MATERIALIZE.
A 1040 MB HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE PLAINS AND EASTERN ROCKIES
FOR SUNDAY, BRINGING US OUR FIRST SHOT AT WINTER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE SEASON. LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN AND SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FOR MIDWEEK,
ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO BRING QUICKLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES
MIDWEEK. A MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK NORTH INTO CANADA, ENSURING THE QUIET
AND WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO MID NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
VFR CIGS WILL HOLD FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE A CLIPPER
SYSTEM OVER THE DAKOTAS BRINGS MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. MAINTAINED THE PROB30 FOR KRWF AND KMKT, AS THOSE
TERMINALS WILL BE RIGHT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE -SN AS THE
LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO IOWA.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH END MVFR/LOW VFR CIGS WILL SETTLE IN EARLY THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE BEFORE IMPROVING. NORTH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND SHIFT FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY TO THE SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND
INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS OF 15-20KTS POSSIBLE.
KMSP...ASIDE FROM A FEW FLURRIES, NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND W 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND WSW 10-20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DYE
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