128
FXUS63 KMPX 091720
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1120 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES IN FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- COLD AND WINDY TODAY BEFORE WARMING TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
SCATTERED FLURRIES HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTH ALONG I-35 OVERNIGHT,
WITH HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY CURRENTLY NEAR FARIBAULT. THIS LIGHT
SNOW BROUGHT A DUSTING TO PORTIONS OF THE METRO, WITH A FEW SNOW
COVERED ROADS PRESENT ON MNDOT CAMERAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT A SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON, INDICATING MORE OF THESE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
THIS IS THE CASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN TODAY. THESE CHANCES ARE REFLECTED IN THE POP GRIDS
WITH WIDESPREAD 10-20% THROUGH LATE SUNDAY, HIGHLIGHTING THE
UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE SNOW WILL COME TO FRUITION AT A GIVEN
TIME/LOCATION. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH CONFIDENCE IS THAT ANY
PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS OVERHEAD AND MAX TEMPERATURES SUB-
FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOULD REMAIN COSMETIC IN NATURE,
MEANING NO MORE THAN A DUSTING IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATION AND
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE RETURN OF GUSTY WINDS TODAY. WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO HOWL AT THE FORECAST OFFICE AS OF 2AM. THEY'LL
REMAIN BREEZY AND NORTHWESTERLY, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO COLD
WIND CHILLS (SINGLE DIGITS) FOR ANYONE OUTSIDE SUNDAY MORNING --
ONLY 'WARMING' TO THE TEENS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
BY LATE MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS AND TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL AS
RIDGING BUILDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD IN MID-NOVEMBER
TERMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 40S TO 50S TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THANKS TO A MILD AIRMASS
SPRAWLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. THE UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL
BE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH LIKELIHOOD
OF THIS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. ONLY 20-30% OF EPS AND GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME,
WITH MEASURABLE BEING LESS THAN A HUNDREDTH. THE NEXT REAL
TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AT THE VERY END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, NEXT WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES ARE PICKING UP
ON QPF, BUT IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT AS TO AMOUNTS. THE TAKEAWAY
BEING A SIGNAL AND INCREASED LIKELIHOOD FOR A SYSTEM TO MOVE
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
MORE FLURRIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, BUT NO CHANGE IN FLIGHT
CATEGORY FROM THIS. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN VFR DUE TO THE LIGHT
NATURE OF THE SNOWFALL. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW VFR TO
HIGH MVFR RANGE AS THIS MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. MUCH CALMER WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
KMSP...SOME FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON FLIGHT
CATEGORY. EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW VFR DUE TO CEILINGS. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR WITH CALMER WINDS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND S BCMG WNW5-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND S 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...NDC
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