750
FXUS63 KMPX 232015
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
215 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO
SNOW TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
- COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE SLOW TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL MN TUESDAY PM INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
- MUCH COLDER WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES LATER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
GORGEOUS NOVEMBER AFTERNOON...IT'S HARD TO TOP THIS AFTERNOON'S MILD
AND SUNNY WEATHER THIS LATE IN THE CALENDAR YEAR! THE WARMTH CAN BE
ATTRIBUTED TO THE EXPANSION OF A MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE ADVECTING
925MB T'S OF 8-10C IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
ON TRACK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF MN, WITH LOCATIONS
ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE SET TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S, PERHAPS
NEAR 60! RECORD HIGHS ARE WITHIN REACH AT MSP (55-1905) AND STC (53-
2021). THE BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER TAKES A TURN STARTING TONIGHT
AND THE SCRIPT WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE IN A MORE WINTRY DIRECTION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT ALL STARTS WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE, AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS AND THEN SHEARING OUT WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY EAST OF
THE UPPER-LOW, WHICH IS DEPICTED BY LOW STRATUS/FOG ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE ACROSS CO/KS/MO. THE MOISTURE PLUME, CHARACTERIZED BY
PWATS ~200% OF NORMAL, WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS TO UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT. ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE A
WIDESPREAD BANK OF LOW STRATUS/DENSE FOG THAT WILL LIKELY ADVECT AT
LEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN, IF NOT FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WE'LL MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS AND ROLL WITH A FOG HEADLINE AS
NEEDED. FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
MONDAY AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND
EASTWARD, SO OUR HIGHEST POPS ARE CONFINED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM FREEBORN (MN) TO BARRON (WI).
WINTER WEATHER MAKER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ATTENTION TURNS TO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO COME ASHORE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TOMORROW AND THEN DEEPEN AS IS SLIDES EAST OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS HEADING INTO TUESDAY. A 500MB LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MONDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN INTO A
CLOSED LOW (WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT) OVER MN/WI BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A ~1004MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MN IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS AND DEEPEN TO A STRONGER ~990S MB LOW OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN RESPONSE, STRONG CAA WILL USHER IN
MUCH COLDER AIR ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WITHIN
THE SYSTEM'S DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION. THE PLACEMENT OF THE
CLOSED UPPER-LOW IS KEY IN DEFINING WHERE THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
PRECIPITATION, SUPPORTED BY A TROWAL, WILL SETUP. MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE CORE OF THE CLOSED LOW WILL PASS OVER EAST
CENTRAL MN/WEST CENTRAL WI, WHICH PLACES THE GREATEST AXIS OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MN (MAINLY ACROSS WFO'S
FGF/DLH'S FORECAST AREA). A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BY
THOSE NEIGHBORING WFO'S, WHICH ENDS ALONG OUR NORTHERN BORDER. OF
NOTE, THE AIFS GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENCY RUNNING SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS BLEND AND THERE ARE SEVERAL 12Z DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE TRENDED THIS DIRECTION. SHOULD THIS TREND
CONTINUE, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT LATER FORECAST SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A WATCH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, SAY FROM
DOUGLAS TO KANABEC.
WITH THE BIG PIECES OUT OF THE WAY, LET'S DISCUSS THE ANTICIPATED
TIMELINE AND SNOWFALL EXPECTATIONS. FOLLOWING A SLIGHT BREAK IN RAIN
CHANCES, WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MN AS TUESDAY MORNING PROGRESSES. A TRANSITION FROM RAIN
TO SNOW WILL OCCUR FIRST ACROSS WESTERN MN HEADING INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT AXN INDICATE ~6-HOUR PERIOD WHERE
STRONG OMEGA FORCING IS ALIGNED WITH A SATURATED DGZ. THIS SUPPORTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SNOWFALL RATES, PERHAPS UPWARDS OF 0.5-
1"/HR. THE KEY QUESTION IS HOW EFFICIENT ARE THE SNOWFALL RATES
FOLLOWING THE P-TYPE TRANSITION AND THE DURATION OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL
(THIS IS A FASTER MOVING STORM SYSTEM OVERALL). THE DEFORMATION BAND
OF SNOW WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MN TUESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-94 FEATURE THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR OBSERVING 2" OR MORE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION:
~60% AT ALEXANDRIA & LITTLE FALLS, ~40% AT ST. CLOUD & MORA. THESE
PROBABILITIES DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF I-94, HOWEVER WE DO
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THE MUCH BROADER PRECIP SHIELD SLIDES THROUGH.
**QUICK NOTE, GIVEN THE WARM ANTECEDENT GROUND CONDITIONS AND THE
WETTER NATURE TO THE SNOWFALL RATIOS EARLY IN THE EVENT, WE'D ADVISE
THOSE LOOKING AT MODEL OUTPUT ONLINE TO UTILIZE PARAMETERS SUCH AS
"DEPTH CHANGE" VERSUS RUNNING WITH ONE OF THE OTHER MODEL SLR
OPTIONS. DEPTH CHANGE FACTORS IN THE EFFECTS OF MELTING &
COMPACTION.**
ALL IN ALL, THIS HAS THE FEEL OF AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT NORTH OF I-
94 -- IT WILL NOT BE A BIG SNOWMAKER LOCALLY, THOUGH IT WILL BE THE
FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE FALL FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND IT ALSO ALIGNS WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL. FOLKS LOOKING TO HEAD A
FEW HOURS TO NW/N/NE OF THE TWIN CITIES TUESDAY EVENING WILL LIKE
HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SLOW AND SLICK TRAVEL, ALONG WITH VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS DUE TO THE FALLING SNOW AND WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35-45
MPH. THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG BEYOND THE CONCLUSION OF FALLING SNOW.
MUCH COLDER LATER THIS WEEK (WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE)...STRONG CAA
WILL USHER IN AN MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM THE
NBM, AS HIGHS IN THE 20S/LOWS IN THE TEENS CONTINUE TO BE THE THEME
FOR THANKSGIVING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WE ARE ALSO
MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNEAKY SNOW SYSTEM IN THE FRIDAY/
SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AS A WAVE OR TWO SLIDE ACROSS THE REMNANT
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT AIMS TO SETUP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE
HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEK, THOUGH I LIKE SEEING THE NBM TREND UPWARD WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN FRIDAY PM/SATURDAY.
CHATTER ABOUT A STORM IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WE'VE DISCUSSED
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF FORECAST SHIFTS, THERE SEEMS TO BE GROWING
INTEREST IN A POTENTIAL "MAJOR STORM SYSTEM" LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO
THE START OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. WE ONCE AGAIN WOULD ADVISE CAUTION
INTO BUYING INTO ANY SINGLE MODEL SOLUTION, AS IT'S SIMPLY TOO FAR
OUT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT LONG RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISED A LONGWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IN THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER,
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF WAYS THE UPPER PATTERN MAY EVOLVE BEYOND THIS,
SO CONFIDENCE AT THIS DISTANCE IS VERY LOW. WE DO ENCOURAGE FOLKS
WHO MAY BE TRAVELING FOLLOWING THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY TO STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS WE
GAIN A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF HOW THE ATMOSPHERE MAY EVOLVE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
VFR FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS (WITH A FEW 18-20KT GUSTS FOR AXN AND
RWF) WILL BECOME LIGHT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
A MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHICH
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS MOST SITES EXCEPT FOR
AXN. DENSE FOG WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND 10-12Z MONDAY
MORNING. IFR IMPACTS ARE GROWING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AT MKT,
MSP, RNH, AND EAU. DECIDED TO KEEP STC UNDER MVFR CATEGORY FOR
NOW, BUT MAY HAVE TO REDUCED IFR SHOULD RH TREND FARTHER NORTH
THAN ANTICIPATED. MIXING TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE LIMITED THUS
RAPID IMPROVEMENT OF VSBY/CIGS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY. THEREFORE
ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO LINGER IN IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
KMSP...ASIDE FROM THE DENSE FOG AND IFR IMPACTS, NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR/IFR. -RA CHANGING TO -SN IN EVENING. WIND BCMG WNW 10-15G25KTS.
WED...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-20G30 KTS
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-10G20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page