919
FXUS63 KMPX 241903
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
103 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST SNOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH WITH
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA,
WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 45 MPH WILL RESULT IN
BLOWING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
- MUCH COLDER WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES LATER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AT THE MOMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL CONTINUE EAST TO
MISSOURI BY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTH AHEAD OF IT
HAS REACHED SOUTHERN IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING THIS
MOISTURE TO MN LATER THIS MORNING. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN MN
AND WI, BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT.
MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WASHINGTON STATE WILL
PROGRESS EAST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THE
DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT. IT WILL DIG APPRECIABLY ON TUESDAY AS IT
REACHES SOUTHERN MN. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TUESDAY
MORNING, THEN AS THE UPPER LOW REACHES MATURITY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION BAND WILL BE IN PLACE ON
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS OF THE LOW. COLDER AIR WILL
ADVECT IN QUICKLY AFTER THE LOW PASSES AND RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW, WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE TROWAL WILL WRAP AROUND
THE LOW TO THE SOUTH, SPREADING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS FAR
SOUTH AS SOUTHERN MN TUESDAY EVENING. SNOW TOTALS ARE INCREASING
AS THE LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT OF THE DEFORMATION BAND CONTINUES
TO SHIFT SOUTH. SEVERAL INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IT SHOULDN'T TAKE
LONG TO BEGIN STICKING WITH DECENT RATES AND TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE 20S, BUT STRONG WINDS MAY STUNT SNOW RATIOS
SOME AND LEAD TO COMPACTION. POSITIVE SNOW DEPTH CHANGE MAPS VS
KUCHERA OR 10:1 RATIO MAPS HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL WELL.
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH STRONG CAA AND A NORTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF NEARLY 50 KTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL
INCREASE SURFACE WINDS MARKEDLY. IN FACT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW 40-45 KTS TOWARD THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. PEAK
SURFACE GUSTS OF 35-40 KTS ARE PROBABLE. COMBINED WITH THE
FALLING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW RATES, TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME DIFFICULT. A WINTER STORM WATCH WAS
ISSUED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL MN, MOSTLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MORRIS TO MORA. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED AND WHERE TRAVEL WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT.
OVERALL, THE TREND OF THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST SNOW CONTINUES TO
SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE NUMERICAL MODELS DUE TO A MORE AGGRESSIVELY
DIGGING TROUGH AND DEEPER UPPER LOW. ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE ALSO
BEGINNING TO SHOW BETTER DEFINITION WITH SMALLER SCALE FEATURES,
SIGNALING THE SPREAD IS DECREASING. AI OUTPUT HAS SHOWN ONLY
SLIGHT SIGNS OF FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE TROUGH, OTHERWISE
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE AI
OUTPUT HAS BEEN FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE NUMERICAL OUTPUT
FOR A WHILE, SO IT APPEARS THE LATTER IS BEGINNING TO CATCH UP.
WITH ALL OF THAT SAID, NBM IS LAGGING BEHIND THE TREND A BIT SO
EXPECTING SNOW TOTALS TO AGAIN INCREASE TODAY, BARRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT REVERSAL OF RECENT TRENDS.
THE WINDS WILL EASE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN. QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY, BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRACK TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW MAY STRETCH FROM THE DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MN BY EARLY SATURDAY. BEYOND SATURDAY, THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH ANY SUBSEQUENT SYSTEM AND CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
LITTLE BIT OF A MESSY START TO THE 24/18Z TAF SET DUE TO SUCH
VARIETY IN CLOUD COVER, PARTICULARLY CEILINGS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER ACROSS ALL 7 TAF SITES
(LEAST AT AXN) BUT THE CEILINGS ARE LOWEST OVER EASTERN/SOUTHERN
MN INTO WESTERN WI, SUCH THAT IFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE, WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER CENTRAL-WESTERN MN. OVERALL, CEILINGS
WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM TONIGHT ONWARD FOR ALL SITES WITH
MAINLY MVFR TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY IFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW,
PARTICULARLY AS PRECIPITATION SETS IN. PRECIP WILL START OUT AS
RAIN FOR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW, THEN THE ONLY
SITE WHICH TRANSITIONS TO -SN PRIOR TO 18Z TOMORROW IS AXN.
HOWEVER, GOING BEYOND 18Z TOMORROW, PARTICULARLY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, SITES FROM WEST TO EAST WILL SEE THE STEADY TRANSITION
FROM -RA TO -SN BUT THIS TIMING WILL BE ADDRESSED IN LATER TAFS.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE AN APPRECIABLE UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW/FRONTS ACROSS
THE REGION. AFTER LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N TO NW TO SPEEDS
AROUND 13G22KT BY MID-TO-LATE DAY TOMORROW.
KMSP...MVFR CEILINGS AT THE START TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY MORNING THEN WILL DROP TO IFR LEVELS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. MAY SEE CEILINGS COME UP TO AROUND 2 KFT
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING BACK UNDER.
PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO START AROUND 18Z BUT COULD HAVE SOME
REPORTABLE -SHRA PRIOR TO 18Z. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO THEN
BECOME STEADY TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING
BELOW 6SM. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL
HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE IMPACT ON RUNWAY CONFIGURATION BUT WITH WINDS
INCREASING IN SPEED FROM THE NW, A SWAP TO THE 30S LOOKS TO BE
IN THE CARDS FROM LATE TUESDAY MORNING ONWARD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. -SHSN EARLY. WIND NW 15-25G30-35KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G20-25KTS.
FRI...VFR. MVFR CEILINGS WITH -SN POSSIBLE LATE. WIND NW TO NE
5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR DOUGLAS-POPE-STEVENS-TODD.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR BENTON-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-STEARNS.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF/TDH
AVIATION...JPC
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