054
FXUS63 KMPX 260900
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING SNOW WILL END BY LATE MORNING IN MN, EARLY AFTERNOON IN
WI. GUSTY WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN, HOWEVER BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
- COLDER BUT QUIET FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.
- ANOTHER LARGER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA
SEEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH
HELPED REINFORCE THE SURFACE LOW CHURNS OVER WISCONSIN TOWARDS LAKE
MICHIGAN AS OF AROUND 230AM, WITH THE STRONGEST ECHOES IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AS LAKE EFFECT FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. A FEW STRONGER BURSTS
OF SNOW ARE FALLING OVER OUR COVERAGE AREA DESPITE RATHER MEAGER
RADAR COVERAGE, AS THE BEAM HEIGHT AWAY FROM OUR RADAR IS
OVERSHOOTING THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK PRODUCING MOST OF THE SNOW NOW
THAT OUR TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED AND THE DGZ IS CLOSER TO THE
GROUND. PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THE MORNING AND DIMINISH SLOWLY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM
WEST TO EAST. OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SPARSE AS
WE AWAIT OUR MORNING COOP/COCORAHS OBSERVATIONS TO GIVE US SOME
DETAILS ON AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT THE AREA, BUT GENERALLY WE HAVE SEEN
THE LOWER END OF THE EXPECTED FORECAST RANGE DUE TO A FEW FACTORS.
THESE FACTORS INCLUDE THE STRONG WINDS WHICH HAVE SHEARED APART
LARGER SNOWFLAKES RESULTING IN A STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE IN ADDITION
TO MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO MEASURE , WARMER GROUND TEMPERATURES AS
SNOW STARTED KEEPING IT FROM STICKING RIGHT AWAY, AND LASTLY THE
BANDED NATURE OF SNOWFALL MAKING FOR POCKETS OF LOWER/HIGHER
AMOUNTS. OVERALL THE SYSTEM HAS PERFORMED AS EXPECTED WITH ONGOING
TRAVEL IMPACTS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE UNTIL CREWS CAN WORK ON THE ROADWAYS. THE 511 MAP ACROSS MN
SHOWS PARTIAL TO FULL SNOW COVERAGE OF MOST OF THE ROAD NETWORK, AND
ALSO INCLUDES SOME ICE COVERED ROADWAYS DUE TO THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES. GIVE YOURSELF SOME EXTRA TIME WHILE COMMUTING THIS
MORNING JUST TO BE SAFE, AND IF YOU PLAN ON TRAVELING AHEAD OF THE
HOLIDAY TOMORROW IT MIGHT BE PRUDENT TO WAIT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW CREWS TIME TO CLEAR THINGS UP.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BLUSTERY TODAY WITH GUSTS CONTINUING AT 30-40MPH
UNTIL THE EVENING UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AND OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS, WITH TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE MID 20S. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS
ALONGSIDE THE SURFACE LOW, CONDITIONS FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT
AROUND 10-15MPH WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN ADDITION TO
PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS DURING THE MORNING, ONLY REBOUNDING TO THE LOW TO MID
20S BY THE AFTERNOON. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL HAVE IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO TODAY, SO ANYONE DOING SAME DAY TRAVEL
SHOULD BE FREE FROM ANY MAJOR ISSUES. TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN FALL
INTO THE LOW TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT LOWS IN WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA FRIDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT POTENTIAL
SYSTEM, WHICH HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND
NOW LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC COLORADO LOW TYPE OF SETUP INTO SATURDAY
WHICH GIVES US THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOW. RIGHT
NOW, THE SETUP LOOKS TO BE THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE LOW AS A
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS, STRENGTHENING AS IT
PUSHES NORTHEAST TOWARDS IOWA AND INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE IMPORTANT, AS A
CLOSER PROXIMITY WILL MEAN INCREASED CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FAVORING SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BUT POTENTIALLY MAKING IT
TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR CWA. FOR NOW, THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
DOESN'T SHOW A DISTINCT CONSENSUS ON THE LOW TRACK, AND KEEPS IT
CLOSE ENOUGH SUCH THAT THE FORECAST HAS ESCALATED COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WITH ALMOST DOUBLE THE QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY
RIVALING OUR CURRENT SYSTEM. THIS IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FOR ANYONE DOING POST-HOLIDAY TRAVEL, AND WE HOPE TO
HAVE SOME BETTER DETAILS AFTER OUR CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION AND SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE COMES IN RANGE.
BEHIND THE EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP ARCTIC AIR LOCKED IN PLACE TO BEGIN THE
MONTH OF DECEMBER, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE 20S AND
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE LONGER RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH AND POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT BEYOND. ONCE YOU GET
BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THERE IS ENOUGH FLUCTUATION WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE TO KEEP A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH AN AIRMASS SHAKE
UP NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
MOST OF THE TERMINALS BY THIS POINT HAVE TRANSITIONED OVER TO
SNOW. EAU IS THE ONLY EXCEPTION AND THIS TRANSITION WILL BE
EARLY THIS PERIOD. WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 40 KNOTS COMBINED
WITH FALLING SNOW HAS LEAD TO AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO IFR
AND SOME LIFR CONDITIONS. THIS IS A WETTER SNOW THAT IS HARDER
TO BLOW AROUND, SO AS SNOWFALL COMES TO AN END THERE SHOULD NOT
BE A TON OF BLOWING SNOW AS THE SNOW SHOULD SETTLE QUICKLY.
HOWEVER WHILE WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING UP NEAR 40 KNOTS EVEN SNOW
THAT IS HARD TO BLOW AROUND WILL STILL BLOW AROUND SOME. SO
THERE WILL BE SOME CONTINUED, LIKELY MORE MVFR VISIBILITY AFTER
SNOWFALL COMES TO AN END. WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW,
BUT THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE MORNING AS THE WINTER
STORMS IS PRESENT. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT THE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME CALMER.
KMSP...THE SNOW TRANSITION AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST HAS
OCCURRED. SNOW SHOULD INCREASE AS WE GET DEEPER INTO TONIGHT
AND START STICKING TO MORE SURFACES AS EVERYTHING COOLS. WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL MAKE EVEN THIS WETTER SNOW BLOW
AROUND AS IT FALLS. CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY THE
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-15G20-25 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC MVFR/-SN LATE. WIND NW TO NE 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MVFR/-SN. WIND NE TO NW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
DOUGLAS-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ANOKA-
BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-
HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LE SUEUR-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-
SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-
WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-MARTIN.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR FARIBAULT-
FREEBORN-MARTIN.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-
POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...NDC
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