207
FXUS63 KMPX 270504
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1104 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER & DRY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA
SEEING THE BEST CHANCE FOR A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL.
- NEAR ZERO TO BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
LIGHT SNOW PERSISTS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AS THE 992MB SFC LOW
PRESSURE TREKS ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. CONDITIONS
HAVE DRIED OUT, BUT REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS MINNESOTA. PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO SOME ISOLATED TRAVEL IMPACTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. IT HAS BEEN QUITE THE SHIFT FROM FALL TO WINTER OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS, BUT IT'S BEEN WELL ADVERTISED. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN
THE TWENTIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S OVERNIGHT. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY, BUT THE WINDS RELAX OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITHOUT THE WIND ELEMENT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES BUT NW WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH
A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
ORGANIZED SYSTEM.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THIS PERIOD WILL BRING A LONG
DURATION SNOW STORM OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST. AN
INITIAL BAND OF SNOWFALL DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY
DRIVEN BY WAA RUNNING INTO THE COLD AIR, PROMOTING A REGION OF FGEN
& FORCING. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SW MN FRIDAY EVENING AND
SLOWLY TURN EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE PLAINS. THE PLAINS LOW WILL MOVE INTO MISSOURI/IOWA BY SATURDAY
& PRECIP BLOSSOMS OVER THE MIDWEST. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON THE
EXACT DIRECTION FROM HERE WITH SOME MODELS LIKE THE ECMWF TAKING THE
SFC LOW FEATURE INTO NW INDIANA WHILE THE GFS OR ECMWF AIFS BRING IT
INTO S WI. SNOWFALL OVER S MN WILL BE LIKELY - BUT TO WHAT EXTENT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY BE A LIGHT SNOW EVENT WITH
MODERATE BURSTS OVER 24 TO 36 HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF S MN. EVENT
TOTALS COULD VERY WELL BE SEVERAL INCHES WHEN IT'S FINISHED. THE
H700 LOW POSITION VARIES WITH THE STRONGER/SNOWIER SOLUTIONS FOR
MN/WI (MPX CWA) FURTHER NW FROM THE SFC LOW. THE WEAKER, DRIER
SOLUTIONS ARE MORE VERTICALLY STACKED AND LIMIT THE FORCING THAT
OVERRIDES THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH FEATURE. EITHER SOLUTION WE'LL
LIKELY SEE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BUT HOW
MUCH WILL NEED TO PUMP THE BRAKES. THERE IS HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO SAY THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL ALONG & TO THE
SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR WITH THIS EVENT. THE UNCERTAINTY IS HOW
MUCH MOISTURE/FORCING EXTEND NORTH OF THERE. THIS SET UP IS ONE
WHERE I'D LIKE MORE GUIDANCE UNDER MY BELT BEFORE MAKING A DECISION
ON POTENTIAL WINTER HEADLINES AS THE HEAVIEST PRECIP OCCURS ALONG
OUR BORDER REGION & WE'RE STILL 60 HOURS OUT FROM THE START OF ANY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. SNOW CHARACTER WILL LIKELY BE 15 TO 18:1 SLRS
OR A MORE LIGHT & FLUFFY SNOW VS WET CEMENT. WINDS LOOK LIKE A NON-
ISSUE WITH SPEEDS AT OR BELOW 10 MPH FOR THE MOST PART. THIS SHOULD
MAKE BLOWING SNOW A NON-FACTOR.
BEHIND OUR SYSTEM COMES A POTENT WAVE OF COLD AIR TO START THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TEENS WITH
LOWS AT OR BELOW ZERO SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE'LL GRADUALLY WARM
UP INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM. THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A MORE TRADITIONAL ALBERTA CLIPPER THAT'LL
TRACK THROUGH AND PRODUCE A QUICK HIT OF LIGHT/FLUFFY SNOW. WE'LL
TAKE THIS ONE EVENT AT THE TIME BUT AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WINTER
WEATHER IS AHEAD OF US AS WE BEGIN THE HOLIDAY SEASON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THE TWO SEPARATE BANKS OF STRATUS RATHER
POORLY THIS EVENING, THUS THE TAF WAS HANDLED USING THE PREVIOUS
IN ADDITION TO THE OBSERVATIONS AND TIMING BASED ON THE MOVEMENT
OF THE CLOUDS. GENERALLY, WE EXPECT TO HOVER IN HIGH MVFR/LOW
VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD, BECOMING VFR TOWARDS THE VERY END
WITH CLOUD DECKS FROM 020-035 FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN AT 300-320 SUSTAINED AT AROUND 10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 20KTS, ONCE AGAIN DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WE MAY NEED TO AMD IN SOME CHANGES TO THE CIGS ONCE THE
NORTHERN STRATUS DECK THAT IS MOVING SOUTHWARDS FROM CENTRAL
MINNESOTA ARRIVES, HOWEVER FOR NOW EXPECT BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR.
KMSP...TIMED OUT THE ARRIVAL OF THE ADDITIONAL MVFR STRATUS
BASED ON THE SPEED OF DEVELOPMENT AROUND 05Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR, BCMG MVFR/IFR/-SN LATE. WIND NW TO SE 5KTS.
SAT...MVFR/IFR/-SN. WIND NE 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...TDH
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