766
FXUS63 KMPX 280006
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
606 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER & DRY THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- A LONG DURATION WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA. SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MINNESOTA ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG I-90.
- A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING ACROSS ALONG I-90 IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SATURDAY EVENING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
FROM W MN THRU E MN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES TURN COLDER BEHIND THE EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO BOTH
MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
A QUIET THANKSGIVING DAY HAS PLAYED OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 20S
WITH BROKEN STRATUS OVERHEAD. SKIES REMAIN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO A LONG
DURATION SNOW STORM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE
OVERALL TRENDS IN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH NUDGE
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THAT HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN QPF BY A TENTH
OR SO - THUS DECREASING FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS. NEITHER CHANGE IS
"SIGNIFICANT" GIVEN THIS IS A LONG DURATION LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
EVENT OUTSIDE OF I-90.
AN INITIAL BAND OF SNOWFALL DEVELOPS UPSTREAM OVER THE DAKOTAS ON
FRIDAY DRIVEN BY A BROAD AREA OF WAA OVERRUNNING THE COLD AIR,
PROMOTING A REGION OF FGEN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
BAND OF SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SW MN FRIDAY EVENING AND SLOWLY TURN
EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SFC LOW EJECTS OUT OF COLORADO SATURDAY
MORNING. OUR LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD AREA OF PRECIP TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR
PLUNGES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE SFC LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE DRIVEN BY THE AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT ALLOWS FOR ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE TO OCCUR DURING MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. SNOWFALL WILL BE
HEAVIEST OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, ALONG I-90, WHERE WE'VE UPGRADED
TO A WINTER STORM WARNING BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. 5 TO 8" SEEMS
LIKELY OVER THE COURSE OF 24 HOURS BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING TO
SATURDAY EVENING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO THE
NORTH FROM LAC QUI PARLE COUNTY THROUGH WASHINGTON COUNTY AND
LOCATIONS SOUTH TO THE WSW. AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY ARE LIKELY TO
EXCEED 2" BUT FALL SHORT OF 6". PROBABILITIES HERE DROP OFF AFTER 3"
AT 10:1. SLRS ARE LIKELY TO BE BETWEEN 15 TO 18:1 THAT SHOULD
SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF 3 TO 6" WITH 2 TO 4" ON THE NORTHERN
PERIMETER OF THE ADVISORY. THERE IS HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SAY
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL ALONG & TO THE SOUTH OF
THE I-90 CORRIDOR WITH THIS EVENT - SUPPORTING THE DECISION TO GO
WSW EARLIER THAN LATER. NORTHEAST WINDS LOOK LIKE A NON-ISSUE WITH
SPEEDS 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE MOST PART. THIS SHOULDN'T BE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR ANY BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS.
ONE CONCERN SHARED ACROSS STAFF IS THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW THROUGH
CHICAGO AND INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN IS NOT ONE HISTORICALLY FAVORED
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORMS ACROSS THE MPX CWA. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY LIMIT SNOW RATES TO THE LIGHTER END IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
MESOSCALE FEATURES. THIS COMBINED WITH A SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH MAY INTRODUCE ENOUGH DRY POLAR AIR TO CUT INTO
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION AT TIMES SATURDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT SNOW - BUT IT'S SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND AS
WE NEAR THE EVENT. BEHIND OUR SYSTEM COMES A POTENT CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT OUR FIRST REAL TASTE OF COLD AIR THIS SEASON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TEENS WITH LOWS AT
OR BELOW ZERO SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WE'LL GRADUALLY WARM UP INTO
WEDNESDAY WHEN THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM. THIS
DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE'LL SEE ANY PRECIPITATION BUT INSTEAD ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION. HAPPY THANKSGIVING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
MVFR TO VFR CIGS PLAGUE MOST TERMINALS AT THE MOMENT, WITH AXN
AND RWF REMAINING CLEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT THE
STRATUS IS ALIGNED WITH THE SNOW- GROWTH LAYER ACROSS WESTERN
WI, SO CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES AT EAU IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE QUICKLY
DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE TOMORROW
MORNING PRIOR TO A TURN OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING IN
FRIDAY MID-MORNING AND GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY, BUT
REMAIN VFR CIGS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
KMSP...UPSTREAM OBS INDICATE THAT VFR CIGS WILL BE PRESENT
BETWEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. A BRIEF CLEARING
LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS RETURN
MID-MORNING AND LOWER SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW ARRIVING
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN NW, AND QUICKLY TRANSITION
TO EASTERLY FRIDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SN. WIND NE 5-15KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR BROWN-CHIPPEWA-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-
NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SIBLEY-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO MIDNIGHT
CST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR CARVER-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-
KANDIYOHI-MCLEOD-MEEKER-RAMSEY-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR BLUE EARTH-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-STEELE-
WASECA-WATONWAN.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...PV
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