420
FXUS63 KMPX 280954
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A LONG DURATION WINTER STORM BEGINS THIS EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN-EASTERN
MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. MULTIPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
- A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTHWARD IN MINNESOTA TO
INCLUDE REDWOOD COUNTY OVER TO GOODHUE COUNTY. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TURN COLDER BEHIND THIS EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM, WITH
HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO BOTH MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM, ALL IS QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA
OF LOW STRATUS COVERING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 20S VERSUS THE CLEAR SLOT OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, WHERE TEMPS CURRENTLY ARE IN THE TEENS TO
SINGLE DIGITS. A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING
THIS MORNING MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THESE POCKETS OF
SNOWFALL ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE.
OUR EYES REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE EVOLUTION OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVING TODAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ESE'WARD
OVER THE COURSE OF TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL AID IN PROVIDING WARM
ADVECTION UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS
FIRST OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL
WHICH THEN MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA LATER THIS EVENING.
BY EARLY SATURDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OVER IOWA AND
THEN EJECTS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL PLAINS.
SNOWFALL COVERAGE WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE DRIVEN BY AN INVERTED TROUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TO OCCUR DURING MUCH OF SATURDAY. WHAT THIS
MEANS IS THAT SNOWFALL DURATION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY. COLD DRY AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY AFTER THE LOW
PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. SNOW COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SATURDAY
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA FOLLOWED BY EASTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT. AFTER BLENDING IN LATEST
GUIDANCE, SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE INCREASED FARTHER NORTH INTO
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS REMAIN FIXED
ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE 7-10" COULD ACCUMULATE SATURDAY.
FARTHER NORTH IS WHERE UPGRADES IN HEADLINES WERE NEEDED. GIVEN
THE UPTICK IN FORECASTED SNOW TOTALS, REDWOOD COUNTY OVER TO
GOODHUE COUNTY WERE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO NOW INCLUDE
SWIFT COUNTY IN MINNESOTA AND ST. CROIX COUNTY OVER TO CHIPPEWA
COUNTY IN WISCONSIN THEN SOUTH. AREAS WITHIN THE ADVISED AREAS
CAN EXPECTED 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF 2 TO
4 INCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
EVEN THE TWIN CITIES METRO WILL GET IN ON THE APPRECIABLE NORTH-
TO-SOUTH GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL, WITH THE NORTHERN METRO CLOSER TO
THE 3-4" AMOUNTS WHILE THE SOUTHERN METRO WILL LIKELY RECEIVE
CLOSER TO THE 5-6" AMOUNTS.
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEING WELL SOUTH OF
OUR IMMEDIATE AREA, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MAY AT TIMES
UNDERCUT SOME OF THE SNOW DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES
FOR THIS EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THANKS TO
THE LACK OF ANY NEARBY MESOSCALE FEATURE TO FORCE HEAVIER RATES.
WINDS CONTINUE TO APPEAR BELOW 20 MPH MITIGATING CONCERNS FOR
BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COLD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
ZERO. WIND CHILLS THESE MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO. A SHORT-LIVED WARMUP OCCURS WEDNESDAY BACK INTO THE 20S
HOWEVER A DRY COLD FRONT KICKS US BACK INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY.
A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH
PROVIDES OUR NEXT POTENTIAL OF PRECIP.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
MVFR TO VFR CIGS PLAGUE MOST TERMINALS AT THE MOMENT, WITH AXN,
RWF, AND MKT REMAINING CLEAR. KEEPING AN EYE ON POTENTIAL
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT AXN FRIDAY MORNING, WITH SOUNDINGS
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A VERY THIN LAYER OF NEAR SURFACE
STRATUS. HAVE KEPT THE TEMPO GOING TO REFLECT THIS. NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING, WITH WINDS TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FRIDAY MORNING PRIOR TO A TURN OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THIS
WIND SHIFT COMES AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING SNOW CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING IN FRIDAY MID- MORNING AND GRADUALLY LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY, BUT REMAIN VFR CIGS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WEST AND SOUTH TERMINALS HAVE -SN AT THE BACK END OF
THE PERIOD, WITH THE SYSTEM BEGINNING TO PRECIPITATE AROUND 0Z
AT RWF/MKT AND 06Z AT MSP. OTHER SITES TO REMAIN DRY FOR THIS
SET, BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE -SN ADDED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KMSP...CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY IMPROVING AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
VFR CATEGORY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD. A BRIEF CLEARING
REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
RETURN BY NOON AND LOWER SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW ARRIVING
LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN NW THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY, AND QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY EVENING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SN. WIND NE 5-15KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR CHIPPEWA-LAC QUI PARLE-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-
SWIFT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR CARVER-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-KANDIYOHI-
MCLEOD-MEEKER-RAMSEY-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-LE
SUEUR-MARTIN-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RICE-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR GOODHUE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...PV
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