590
FXUS63 KMPX 291238
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
638 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED, WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF 6-10" ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
- WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE AFTER THE SNOW ON SUNDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY TO THE EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LATEST REFLECTIVITY SHOWING THE SNOW LINE
PARALLELING THE I-94 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES NORTH AND EAST OF
THE SNOW BAND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER TEENS WHEREAS SOUTH AND
WEST ARE IN THE LOWER 20S AS SNOW FALLS IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. HOWEVER, ONE FEATURE OF
NOTE IS A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED ALONG THE MN/MANITOBA
BORDER THAT IS ADVECTING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MEANDER ALONG THE INT'L BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BEFORE MIDDAY. THIS IMPORTANCE OF THIS
FEATURE IS THAT IT HAS HELP DELAY THE SNOWFALL ARRIVAL AND
FORWARD PROGRESSION FOR SOME AREAS ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL MN,
WHICH IN TURN COULD LOWER FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS. THIS INCLUDES
THE TWIN CITIES METRO AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THE PARENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS DRIVING THIS EVENT WILL
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS MISSOURI AND EVENTUALLY ENCROACH ON LAKE
MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US LOCALLY IS DESPITE
THE DISTANT PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW'S TRACK, PLENTIFUL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT EXTENDS WELL OUT AHEAD AND NORTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE.
THEREFORE, MOST AREAS BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK SHOULD EXPECT TO
SEE AN INCREASE OF LIGHT SNOW. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS, THE PROLONGED DURATION OF LIGHT SNOW TODAY WILL
RESULT IN ACCUMULATING LIGHT POWDERY SNOW, NOT HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES. SNOWFALL RATES FOR THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO APPEAR ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE OVERALL WITH RATES NEARING A HALF-INCH PER HOUR.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECASTS REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH THE
HIGHEST TOTALS FOCUSED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE 6-10" ARE
POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH, INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES
METRO, MAY SEE CLOSER TO THE RANGE OF 2-5" HOWEVER IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE GRADIENT OF ACCUMULATIONS ONCE AGAIN
APPEARS TO CUT THE METRO IN HALF ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
THEREFORE, THOSE IN THE NORTH METRO HAVE A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF
SEEING LOWER- END SNOWFALL TOTALS AS COMPARED WHO LIVE SOUTH OF
I-494.
ANOTHER ELEMENT TO NOTE IS THAT WINDS BECOME BREEZY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON FOR MOST SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI, HOWEVER A FEW GUSTS
NEARING 35MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR WHICH
COULD MAKE FOR STRETCHES OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
ONCE TODAY'S SYSTEM DEPARTS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY FILLS
IN FROM OUR NORTHWEST AND DIVES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI VALLEY. A COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVES WITH THIS
FEATURE AS SUNDAY'S FORECAST HIGHS WILL MAINLY RANGE IN THE
TEENS WEST OF I-35, AND THE TEENS AGAIN FOR THE ENTIRE COVERAGE
AREA ON MONDAY. WIND CHILLS THESE MORNINGS WILL RANGE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW ZERO. TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS PROCEED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM LOOKS OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
LIGHT SNOW HAS COVERED MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE WFO MPX COVERAGE
AREA AT INITIALIZATION, BUT CONDITIONS HAVE NOT DROPPED MUCH, IF
AT ALL, OUT OF VFR FOR MOST SITES. THE EXPECTATION IS STILL FOR
SNOW TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES BY LATER THIS MORNING, DROPPING
INTO MVFR LEVELS, WITH IFR CONDITIONS (I.E. HEAVIEST SNOW) MOSTLY
LIKELY FROM AROUND NOON THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES ARE STILL LIKELY TO DROP TO 1SM, AND
POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS 1/2SM. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
START OUT FROM THE ENE THEN STEADILY BACK TO N AND NW LATER
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SPEEDS UNDER 10KTS THROUGH MIDDAY WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 12G20KTS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
KMSP...INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS TO START WILL BECOME MORE
SUSTAINED LATER THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN
WITH THE MORE SUSTAINED SNOW, THEN VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DROPPING TO IFR LEVELS BY ABOUT NOON. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE EARLY-MID THIS AFTERNOON, THEN CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH SNOW ENDING PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. N TO NE WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20
KNOTS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
WED...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY, -SHSN EARLY. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CARVER-
CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MCLEOD-
MEEKER-RAMSEY-RENVILLE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-SWIFT-WASHINGTON-
WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BLUE EARTH-
BROWN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-STEELE-
WASECA-WATONWAN.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GOODHUE-LE
SUEUR-RICE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR CHIPPEWA-
DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...JPC
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