434
FXUS63 KMPX 291748
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1148 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED, WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS OF 6-10" ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
- WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE AFTER THE SNOW ON SUNDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
ONLY CHANGE WE'VE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO BE A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH PUSHING THE CATEGORICAL POPS EAST AND OUT OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING. OTHER THAN THAT, THE ATMOSPHERE IS
LISTENING TO THE FORECAST TODAY!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY TO THE EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH LATEST REFLECTIVITY SHOWING THE SNOW LINE
PARALLELING THE I-94 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES NORTH AND EAST OF
THE SNOW BAND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER TEENS WHEREAS SOUTH AND
WEST ARE IN THE LOWER 20S AS SNOW FALLS IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. HOWEVER, ONE FEATURE OF
NOTE IS A 1032MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED ALONG THE MN/MANITOBA
BORDER THAT IS ADVECTING DRIER AIR SOUTHWARD. THIS HIGH WILL
SLOWLY MEANDER ALONG THE INT'L BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BEFORE MIDDAY. THIS IMPORTANCE OF THIS
FEATURE IS THAT IT HAS HELP DELAY THE SNOWFALL ARRIVAL AND
FORWARD PROGRESSION FOR SOME AREAS ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL MN,
WHICH IN TURN COULD LOWER FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS. THIS INCLUDES
THE TWIN CITIES METRO AND WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THE PARENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS DRIVING THIS EVENT WILL
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS MISSOURI AND EVENTUALLY ENCROACH ON LAKE
MICHIGAN BY TONIGHT. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US LOCALLY IS DESPITE
THE DISTANT PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW'S TRACK, PLENTIFUL ISENTROPIC
ASCENT EXTENDS WELL OUT AHEAD AND NORTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE.
THEREFORE, MOST AREAS BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK SHOULD EXPECT TO
SEE AN INCREASE OF LIGHT SNOW. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS, THE PROLONGED DURATION OF LIGHT SNOW TODAY WILL
RESULT IN ACCUMULATING LIGHT POWDERY SNOW, NOT HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES. SNOWFALL RATES FOR THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO APPEAR ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE OVERALL WITH RATES NEARING A HALF-INCH PER HOUR.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECASTS REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH THE
HIGHEST TOTALS FOCUSED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN WHERE 6-10" ARE
POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH, INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES
METRO, MAY SEE CLOSER TO THE RANGE OF 2-5" HOWEVER IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE GRADIENT OF ACCUMULATIONS ONCE AGAIN
APPEARS TO CUT THE METRO IN HALF ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR.
THEREFORE, THOSE IN THE NORTH METRO HAVE A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF
SEEING LOWER- END SNOWFALL TOTALS AS COMPARED WHO LIVE SOUTH OF
I-494.
ANOTHER ELEMENT TO NOTE IS THAT WINDS BECOME BREEZY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON FOR MOST SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN WI, HOWEVER A FEW GUSTS
NEARING 35MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR WHICH
COULD MAKE FOR STRETCHES OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
ONCE TODAY'S SYSTEM DEPARTS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY FILLS
IN FROM OUR NORTHWEST AND DIVES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI VALLEY. A COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVES WITH THIS
FEATURE AS SUNDAY'S FORECAST HIGHS WILL MAINLY RANGE IN THE
TEENS WEST OF I-35, AND THE TEENS AGAIN FOR THE ENTIRE COVERAGE
AREA ON MONDAY. WIND CHILLS THESE MORNINGS WILL RANGE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW ZERO. TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS A COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS PROCEED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, PARTICULARLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NEITHER SYSTEM LOOKS OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
GOING TAFS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. MAIN THING IS THAT FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON, WE'RE IN A PRETTY STEADY STATE, WITH
3/4SM TO 2SM SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD.
IMPROVEMENTS IN VIS REALLY DON'T START TO EXPAND QUICKLY UNTIL
AFTER 3Z. CIGS WILL LARGELY REMAIN MVFR DURING THE SNOW. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON HOW CIGS EVOLVE GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MOST OF
THE CAMS ARE PRETTY OPTIMISTIC ON CIGS IMPROVING LATE TONIGHT
BEHIND THE SNOW, THOUGH RAP SOUNDINGS WOULD SAY WE REMAIN SOCKED
IN THE STRATO-CU THROUGH SUNDAY, SO LEANED INTO THE CLOUDY
SCENARIO FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
KMSP...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A VIS OCCASIONALLY BUMP DOWN TO
3/4SM, CONFIDENCE ON ANY WINDOWS IN THE FIRST 8 HOURS OF THE TAF
WHERE VIS THAT LOW ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ANY TEMPOS, WITH A GENERAL 1-2SM SNOW EXPECTED TO FALL
THROUGH ABOUT 5Z. WE WILL HAVE A CROSS WIND THROUGH MOST OF THE
FIRST 6 HOURS THOUGH THEY WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE WEST OF DUE
NORTH AFTER 00Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR CHC IFR CIGS LATE. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
TUE...MVFR CHC IFR CIGS. CHC -SN OVERNIGHT. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
WED...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. CHC -SN EARLY. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CARVER-
CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MCLEOD-
MEEKER-RAMSEY-RENVILLE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-SWIFT-WASHINGTON-
WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BLUE EARTH-
BROWN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-STEELE-
WASECA-WATONWAN.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GOODHUE-LE
SUEUR-RICE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR CHIPPEWA-
DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX.
UPDATE...MPG
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...MPG
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