086
FXUS63 KMPX 151156
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
556 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUAL WARMING, WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON TUESDAY AROUND
40 DEGREES.
- MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH COOLER,
MORE SEASONABLE, TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS A DECK OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS COVERING
MOST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH SCATTERED LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
HIDDEN BENEATH. THESE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE MORNING, LEADING TO A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.
WINDS CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 25+ KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA, BUT SHOULD DIE OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COMPARED
TO SUNDAY, A MUCH WARMER MORNING IS IN STORE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BRISK IN THE MID- TEENS. IT WILL WARM INTO THE 20S ALONG AND NE
OF I-94 AND LOWER 30S SW OF I-94 THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT THE
REAL 'WARMTH' ARRIVES ON TUESDAY. WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS, RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 40S. OUR DEEP SNOWPACK WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO WARM, BUT GOING FROM SUBZERO TO 40
ABOVE IN 48 HOURS WILL FEEL LIKE A HEAT WAVE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BREAK THE WAA, BUT ONE LAST PUSH OF
WAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE THE NEXT BIGGER SYSTEM SHOULD AGAIN PUSH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE EARLY WEEK WARMTH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MID-WEEK CLIPPER
TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA. LATE WEDNESDAY, A SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA, RESULTING IN THOSE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND WESTERN WISCONSIN BEING IN THE
WARM SECTOR. SHOULD THE LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTH, THAT WOULD
MOVE OUR REGION CLOSER TO THE COLDER SIDE, MEANING MORE SNOW AND
LESS RAIN. TRENDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE
LOW TO THE NORTH, MEANING WE ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO SEE A RAIN
OR RAIN/SNOW MIX. A TRANSITION TO SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE IS
LIKELY AS A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVES IN THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY STAY ON THE LOWER SIDE, WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF TRACE TO LESS THAN AN INCH. THIS WILL BE A SITUATION WHERE
THURSDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE TECHNICALLY OCCURS AT MIDNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP THROUGH THE DAY. THE TIMING OF THIS
FRONT REMAINS ON OF THE LARGER UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS FORECAST,
WITH A RECENT TREND TOWARDS AN EARLIER PASSAGE. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN AN EARLIER TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW, BUT OVERALL
NOT CHANGE MUCH. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW SHOULD BE
CLEAN, WITHOUT MANY P-TYPE CONCERNS. A CLOSE EYE WILL BE KEPT ON
THIS GIVEN THE ALIGNMENT OF THE TRANSITION BEING WITHIN A FEW
HOURS OF THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE. A LIGHT PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN CANNOT FULLY BE RULED OUT DURING THE TRANSITION,
BUT IT IS NOT THE LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
THEIR ENTIRETY QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING, LEAVING LITTLE TIME
FOR ANY WARM NOSE TO CAUSE IMPACTS.
LOOKING TO FRIDAY ONWARD, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS. ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY, AS IS REFLECTED BY SCATTERED 20% POPS, BUT
AN OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST MON DEC 15 2025
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING, WITH PATCHES OF MVFR STRATUS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT MOST SITES HAVE A CHANCE OF FALLING TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS BY
THIS EVENING. ANY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS MAY STILL BE
MORE PATCHY THAN WIDESPREAD, LEADING TO OCCASIONAL RISES TO VFR.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS WELL, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT ANY SITES OTHER THAN EAU AT
THIS ISSUANCE.
KMSP...EXTENDED THE PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 19Z, THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE FOR OCCASIONAL DROPS TO MVFR DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THE STRATUS DEVELOPS AND HOW PATCHY IT IS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR. WIND SW 10-15G20KTS.
WED...MVFR. WIND SE 10-15G20KTS.
THU...MVFR. WIND S EARLY, BCMG NW 15-20KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...BED
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