399
FXUS63 KMPX 161816
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1216 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GRADUAL WARMING, WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING TODAY NEAR 40F.
- MIXED PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW ON THURSDAY. FLASH FREEZE POSSIBLE.
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS UP TO HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
GET READY FOR THE NICEST DAY IN A WHILE! WINDS INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HIGHLIGHT A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION THAT
SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION, SO IT'LL BE A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH
VERTICAL MIXING CAN DEVELOP. THERE WILL BE 30+ MPH WINDS JUST
1000 FEET UP AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH, SO MORE EFFICIENT
MIXING WOULD LEAD TO A BREEZIER DAY. THE LATEST NBM SUGGESTS
THAT THE INVERSION IS A BIT TOO STRONG TO EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN
THESE STRONGER WINDS, WHICH SEEMS MOST REASONABLE. THOUGH EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR BREEZIER WINDS. NEIGHBORING OFFICES TO OUR
SOUTH, WHO GOT IN ON THE SURGE OF WARM AIR YESTERDAY, POINTED
OUT THAT TEMPERATURES LANDED ON THE HIGH END OF GUIDANCE.
BECAUSE OF THIS, WE HAVE LEANED WARMER FOR TODAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 40F. AGAIN, PART OF THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW EFFICIENTLY WE CAN MIX DOWN THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING UNTIL A STRONG
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH. A TRANSITION
FROM LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY PM TO A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS
REMAIN LIGHT, WITH ONLY AROUND A TENTH OR SO EXPECTED. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE
TRANSITION PERIOD OVERNIGHT IF CLOUD ICE BECOMES LIMITED ALOFT,
SO WE HAVE INTRODUCED MENTION OF THAT IN THE LATEST FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FLASH FREEZE SCENARIO ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, LEADING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW MELT. THE
FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY CRASHING BEHIND IT. IF IT HELPS PICTURE
THINGS, THE HIGH FOR THURSDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT AND
THE LOW AT 11:59PM -- TEMPERATURES WILL BASICALLY BE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND THE ENTIRE DAY. LOWS COULD VERY LIKELY BE
WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH PARTS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AS LOW AS -10 TO - 15F.
THE ARCTIC BLAST DOES NOT STICK AROUND AS LONG AS OUR PREVIOUS
COLD STRETCH WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK OUT OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY.
AN SECOND WAVE COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOWS NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE
PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL AND LIMITED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF ANY ADDITIONAL KINKS IN THE FLOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
ALL FZDZ FROM THIS MORNING HAS PASSED. CURRENTLY REMNANT HIGH
CLOUDS REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THIS
EVENING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS MOST SITES TONIGHT, WITH MKT BEING
THE LEAST IMPACTED. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO WESTERLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY
BETWEEN 20-30KTS. LLWS GROUPS REACHING UP TO 45-50KTS WERE ALSO
INCLUDED AT ALL SITES THIS PERIOD. BY THIS EVENING, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPS ACROSS STC,
RNH, AND EAU AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PASSES
THROUGH. ONCE THE CORE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE PASSES, LLWS AND
WIND GUSTS DECREASE AS WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS TO SOUTHERLY BY
TOMORROW MORNING.
KMSP...VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10KTS BECOMING A WESTERLY
CROSSWIND WITH 20-25KTS GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ~23-00Z TIMEFRAME.
NOTABLE 40-50KT WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE DID MENTION THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR
CIGS ESPECIALLY AFTER 02Z TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TAF BASED ON CURRENT CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS OCCURRING NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AIRPORT. AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES OVERHEAD TONIGHT,
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH BY 12-15Z WITH SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR TO MVFR. WIND SE 10-15G25KTS.
THU...MVFR. WIND S EARLY, BCMG NW 15-20G30KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page