986
FXUS63 KMPX 162020
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
220 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 40S,
& 50S ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA.
- A WINTRY MIX OF MOSTLY RAIN, BUT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW &
FREEZING DRIZZLE, SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR ICE ARE HIGHEST
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- LIGHT SNOW, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 50 MPH, & PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING. LOW VISIBILITY FROM
BLOWING SNOW & FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS LEADING TO ICY ROADS &
SURFACES IS LIKELY, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
TEMPERATURES ARE OVERACHIEVING THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
ALREADY IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA & 40S ELSEWHERE.
WE'VE PROBABLY SEEN THE MOST OF OUR WARMING FOR THE AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE WANING SUN ANGLE, BUT HIGHS COULD STILL WARM BY
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH ARE
MAKING IT FEEL NOT AS PLEASANT AS POSSIBLE OUT THERE, BUT WE'LL
TAKE IT FOR OUR WARMEST AFTERNOON SINCE BEFORE THANKSGIVING.
WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT, BUT BECOME GUSTY AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW SKIRTING ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. THIS LOW IS FORECAST
TO DEEPEN INTO THE 980 MB RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH IS
ACTUALLY NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL EXTREMES FOR MID-DECEMBER, SO
IT'S NO SURPRISE THAT WE HAVE AN ACTIVE & DEFINITELY WINDY
STRETCH OF WEATHER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD START AS EARLY AS MID-AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN & CENTRAL MINNESOTA, MAINLY DRIVEN BY
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITH THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR
THIS PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS RAIN GIVEN THE CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WESTERN
WISCONSIN WHERE TEMEPRATURES COULD STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIP LIKELY BEGINS DURING THE EVENING.
WHEREVER WE MIGHT SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING DRIZZLE,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT, QUICKLY
CHANGING OVER ANY WINTRY MIX INTO RAIN. THE LIGHT RAIN WILL
WRAP UP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS THE LOW
REACHES IT'S MAX INTENSITY & A WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT MOVES OVER
THE REGION. WE'LL LIKELY BE DRY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT ROUND TWO OF THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING THE MORNING & EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND
THIS FRONT, BUT THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE MEANS
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE REAL ISSUES WITH THIS SNOW WILL BE THE VERY
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT, ALONG WITH FLASH FREEZE
CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY BLOWING SNOW THURSDAY WILL HAVE TO COME
ENTIRELY FROM THE LIGHT FALLING SNOW, AS THE WARM TEMPERATURES
TODAY & RAIN TOMORROW WILL EFFECTIVELY MITIGATE ANY POTENTIAL
FOR THE ANTECEDENT SNOWPACK TO BLOW AROUND. STILL, LOW
VISIBILITY & NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AT LEAST 40-50 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE. ROADS COULD
ALSO ICE OVER QUICKLY WITH THE FALLING SNOW & MELTING SNOW FROM
THE ANTECEDENT SNOWPACK QUICKLY FREEZING UP ON ROADS & SURFACES
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
& EVENTUALLY BELOW ZERO BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE FRIGID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ONTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, AND WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS -30 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WE'LL LIKELY STAY ON THE COOLER END
OF NORMAL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG ZONAL FLOW SITS OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT ANY MAJOR WINTER SYSTEMS OVER THE REGION FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. HOWEVER, ANY SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE JET
COULD CREATE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP, SO WE MAY SEE MULTIPLE
NUISANCE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND & INTO NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY REASONABLE GIVE THE
ZONAL FLOW, BUT WE WILL LIKELY STAY OF TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL WARM AIRMASSES GIVEN THE JET OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
ALL FZDZ FROM THIS MORNING HAS PASSED. CURRENTLY REMNANT HIGH
CLOUDS REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THIS
EVENING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS MOST SITES TONIGHT, WITH MKT BEING
THE LEAST IMPACTED. SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO WESTERLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY
BETWEEN 20-30KTS. LLWS GROUPS REACHING UP TO 45-50KTS WERE ALSO
INCLUDED AT ALL SITES THIS PERIOD. BY THIS EVENING, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPS ACROSS STC,
RNH, AND EAU AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PASSES
THROUGH. ONCE THE CORE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE PASSES, LLWS AND
WIND GUSTS DECREASE AS WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS TO SOUTHERLY BY
TOMORROW MORNING.
KMSP...VFR. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10KTS BECOMING A WESTERLY
CROSSWIND WITH 20-25KTS GUSTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ~23-00Z TIMEFRAME.
NOTABLE 40-50KT WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE DID MENTION THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR
CIGS ESPECIALLY AFTER 02Z TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TAF BASED ON CURRENT CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS OCCURRING NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AIRPORT. AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES OVERHEAD TONIGHT,
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH BY 12-15Z WITH SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR TO MVFR. WIND SE 10-15G25KTS.
THU...MVFR. WIND S EARLY, BCMG NW 15-20G30KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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