369
FXUS63 KMPX 170059
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
659 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 40S,
& 50S ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA.
- A WINTRY MIX OF MOSTLY RAIN, BUT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW &
FREEZING DRIZZLE, SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR ICE ARE HIGHEST
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- LIGHT SNOW, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 50 MPH, & PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING. LOW VISIBILITY FROM
BLOWING SNOW & FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS LEADING TO ICY ROADS &
SURFACES IS LIKELY, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
TEMPERATURES ARE OVERACHIEVING THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
ALREADY IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA & 40S ELSEWHERE.
WE'VE PROBABLY SEEN THE MOST OF OUR WARMING FOR THE AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE WANING SUN ANGLE, BUT HIGHS COULD STILL WARM BY
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH ARE
MAKING IT FEEL NOT AS PLEASANT AS POSSIBLE OUT THERE, BUT WE'LL
TAKE IT FOR OUR WARMEST AFTERNOON SINCE BEFORE THANKSGIVING.
WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT, BUT BECOME GUSTY AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW SKIRTING ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN INTO THE 980 MB RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH IS
ACTUALLY NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL EXTREMES FOR MID-DECEMBER, SO
IT'S NO SURPRISE THAT WE HAVE AN ACTIVE & DEFINITELY WINDY
STRETCH OF WEATHER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD START AS EARLY AS MID-AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN & CENTRAL MINNESOTA, MAINLY DRIVEN BY
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITH THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR
THIS PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS RAIN GIVEN THE CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WESTERN
WISCONSIN WHERE TEMEPRATURES COULD STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIP LIKELY BEGINS DURING THE EVENING.
WHEREVER WE MIGHT SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING DRIZZLE,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT, QUICKLY
CHANGING OVER ANY WINTRY MIX INTO RAIN. THE LIGHT RAIN WILL WRAP
UP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS THE LOW
REACHES IT'S MAX INTENSITY & A WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT MOVES OVER
THE REGION. WE'LL LIKELY BE DRY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT ROUND TWO OF THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES DURING THE MORNING & EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
FRONT, BUT THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE MEANS
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE REAL ISSUES WITH THIS SNOW WILL BE THE VERY
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT, ALONG WITH FLASH FREEZE
CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY BLOWING SNOW THURSDAY WILL HAVE TO COME
ENTIRELY FROM THE LIGHT FALLING SNOW, AS THE WARM TEMPERATURES
TODAY & RAIN TOMORROW WILL EFFECTIVELY MITIGATE ANY POTENTIAL
FOR THE ANTECEDENT SNOWPACK TO BLOW AROUND. STILL, LOW
VISIBILITY & NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AT LEAST 40-50 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE. ROADS COULD
ALSO ICE OVER QUICKLY WITH THE FALLING SNOW & MELTING SNOW FROM
THE ANTECEDENT SNOWPACK QUICKLY FREEZING UP ON ROADS & SURFACES
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
& EVENTUALLY BELOW ZERO BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE FRIGID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ONTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, AND WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS -30 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WE'LL LIKELY STAY ON THE COOLER END
OF NORMAL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG ZONAL FLOW SITS OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT ANY MAJOR WINTER SYSTEMS OVER THE REGION FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. HOWEVER, ANY SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE JET
COULD CREATE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP, SO WE MAY SEE MULTIPLE
NUISANCE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND & INTO NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY REASONABLE GIVE THE
ZONAL FLOW, BUT WE WILL LIKELY STAY OF TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL WARM AIRMASSES GIVEN THE JET OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
MAINLY VFR TO START THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR IN
CENTRAL MN AS THE BROAD SWATH OF LOWER STRATUS OVER NORTHERN MN
TRIES TO DIP SOUTH. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD PROGRESS IS
EXPECTED, THUS SITES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN AS VFR
WITH SOME VARIANCE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. BREEZY
NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN/WI THIS EVENING, AND THIS WILL ALSO END ANY
REMAINING STRONG WINDS OFF THE DECK (I.E. LLWS CONDITIONS). A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALLOWING WINDS TO
GO LIGHT/VARIABLE FOR A SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD. WINDS WILL THEN
QUICKLY PICK UP FROM THE S MID-TO-LATE DAY TOMORROW, INCLUDING
SPEEDS NEARING 15-20G25-30KTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SIMILARLY, LLWS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME BUT FROM THE
SW TOMORROW WITH SPEEDS AT 2KFT NEAR 50KTS. CHANCES FOR RAIN
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THIS TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE
06Z TAF SET WILL ADVERTISE RAIN MOVING INTO ALL SITES WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
KMSP...NO APPRECIABLE ISSUES UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP, STRONG LLWS CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR
CEILINGS LATER THIS EVENING, BUT WILL NEED TO SEE HOW CLOUDS TO
THE NORTH EVOLVE ON ITS SOUTHERN FRINGE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR WITH -SN LIKELY. ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1". WIND NW
15-20G30KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. WIND NW 5-10KTS
BECOMING SE 10-15G25KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...JPC
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