341
FXUS63 KMPX 170504
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1104 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 40S,
& 50S ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA.
- A WINTRY MIX OF MOSTLY RAIN, BUT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW &
FREEZING DRIZZLE, SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR ICE ARE HIGHEST
ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- LIGHT SNOW, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 50 MPH, & PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING. LOW VISIBILITY FROM
BLOWING SNOW & FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS LEADING TO ICY ROADS &
SURFACES IS LIKELY, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
TEMPERATURES ARE OVERACHIEVING THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
ALREADY IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA & 40S ELSEWHERE.
WE'VE PROBABLY SEEN THE MOST OF OUR WARMING FOR THE AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE WANING SUN ANGLE, BUT HIGHS COULD STILL WARM BY
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH ARE
MAKING IT FEEL NOT AS PLEASANT AS POSSIBLE OUT THERE, BUT WE'LL
TAKE IT FOR OUR WARMEST AFTERNOON SINCE BEFORE THANKSGIVING.
WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT, BUT BECOME GUSTY AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW SKIRTING ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN INTO THE 980 MB RANGE BY THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH IS
ACTUALLY NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL EXTREMES FOR MID-DECEMBER, SO
IT'S NO SURPRISE THAT WE HAVE AN ACTIVE & DEFINITELY WINDY
STRETCH OF WEATHER BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD START AS EARLY AS MID-AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN & CENTRAL MINNESOTA, MAINLY DRIVEN BY
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITH THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR
THIS PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN AS RAIN GIVEN THE CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WESTERN
WISCONSIN WHERE TEMEPRATURES COULD STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
FREEZING WHEN THE PRECIP LIKELY BEGINS DURING THE EVENING.
WHEREVER WE MIGHT SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING DRIZZLE,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT, QUICKLY
CHANGING OVER ANY WINTRY MIX INTO RAIN. THE LIGHT RAIN WILL WRAP
UP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS THE LOW
REACHES IT'S MAX INTENSITY & A WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT MOVES OVER
THE REGION. WE'LL LIKELY BE DRY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT ROUND TWO OF THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES DURING THE MORNING & EARLY AFTERNOON AS AN ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
FRONT, BUT THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE MEANS
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE REAL ISSUES WITH THIS SNOW WILL BE THE VERY
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT, ALONG WITH FLASH FREEZE
CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT ANY BLOWING SNOW THURSDAY WILL HAVE TO COME
ENTIRELY FROM THE LIGHT FALLING SNOW, AS THE WARM TEMPERATURES
TODAY & RAIN TOMORROW WILL EFFECTIVELY MITIGATE ANY POTENTIAL
FOR THE ANTECEDENT SNOWPACK TO BLOW AROUND. STILL, LOW
VISIBILITY & NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AT LEAST 40-50 MPH
ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL LEAD TO DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE. ROADS COULD
ALSO ICE OVER QUICKLY WITH THE FALLING SNOW & MELTING SNOW FROM
THE ANTECEDENT SNOWPACK QUICKLY FREEZING UP ON ROADS & SURFACES
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
& EVENTUALLY BELOW ZERO BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE FRIGID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ONTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, AND WIND
CHILLS AS LOW AS -30 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WE'LL LIKELY STAY ON THE COOLER END
OF NORMAL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG ZONAL FLOW SITS OVER
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT ANY MAJOR WINTER SYSTEMS OVER THE REGION FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. HOWEVER, ANY SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE JET
COULD CREATE CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP, SO WE MAY SEE MULTIPLE
NUISANCE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND & INTO NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY REASONABLE GIVE THE
ZONAL FLOW, BUT WE WILL LIKELY STAY OF TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL WARM AIRMASSES GIVEN THE JET OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
SWATH OF MVFR STRATUS OVER CENTRAL MN HAS MADE GOOD PROGRESS
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE 16/06Z TAFS AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT RWF. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS AWAY FROM THE AREA,
BREEZY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF CLOSE TO SUNRISE AS A
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, ALLOWING
WINDS TO GO LIGHT/VARIABLE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH STRONG WINDS OFF THE DECK, SUCH THAT
LLWS CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALSO COINCIDING WITH THIS STRONG INCREASE IN
WINDS WILL BE THE RAMPING UP OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE DURING THE
DAY AND EVENING TOMORROW, STARTING OUT BELOW FREEZING THEN
RISING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
REMAINING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THUS, WHILE THERE IS A SMALL NON-ZERO CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, THE VAST BULK WILL COME AS RAIN.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION HERE LOOKS TO BE EAU, WHERE THE COLDEST AIR
WILL BE STUCK THE LONGEST. THUS, AT EAU, THERE MAY BE A MIXTURE
OF FZDZ AND SN FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
SUFFICIENT WARMING ALLOWS THE P-TYPE TO FALL AS RAIN.
KMSP...NO APPRECIABLE ISSUES UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP, STRONG LLWS CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL NON-ZERO CHANCE THAT
FZDZ MAY PRECEDE THE RAINFALL, BUT ANY ICING IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED AS RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM AROUND 00Z ONWARD AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING, LIMITING ANY FZDZ
IMPACTS TO NON-GROUND SURFACES (I.E. AIRCRAFT, JETBRIDGES,
VEHICLES, CARTS, ETC).
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR WITH -SN LIKELY. ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1". WIND NW
15-20G30KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. WIND NW 5-10KTS
BECOMING SE 10-15G25KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...JPC
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