368
FXUS63 KMPX 170944
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
344 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN, WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW & FREEZING DRIZZLE,
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
- LIGHT SNOW, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, & PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.
- MOSTLY DRY AND NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER A COLD
FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN THIS MORNING AFTER GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH
LATE LAST NIGHT. SLIGHT RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
WARM ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN. WE DON'T LOOK TO GET AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY, THOUGH WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON, INCREASING BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S.
PART OF THIS WARM UP IS INFLUENCED BY THE PACIFIC MARITIME
AIRMASS ADVECTED EAST AHEAD OF THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW NEAR THE
CANADIAN/US BORDER. THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE PROJECTS HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR A SUB-990 MB LOW AS IT MOVES EAST NEAR THE
CANADA/MINNESOTA BORDER, OWING TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS ALONG
THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTS NEAR
25-30 MPH BY THIS EVENING.
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF ASPECTS TO THIS SYSTEM THAT MAKE IT AN
INTERESTING ONE TO MESSAGE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WHILE
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT (AROUND 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES
OF QPF), THERE COULD STILL BE A NUMBER OF IMPACTS. LET'S BREAK
IT DOWN.
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE: THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION HAS
TRENDED LATER, STARTING CLOSER TO 6-7PM RATHER THAN MID
AFTERNOON. THIS LEANS IN THE FAVOR OF TEMPERATURES BEING WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOST FOLKS TO SEE ALL RAIN THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
STILL BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES DO NOT WARM AS QUICKLY. RAIN WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AS A BROAD DRY SLOT COVERS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
RELATIVELY DEEP (~5-8K FT) DGZ AS THE FRONT INITIALLY MOVES
THROUGH, SUGGESTING SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES ARE
POSSIBLE. OVERALL THOUGH, AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
(AROUND AN INCH OR LESS) DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO END ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
FALLING TEMPERATURES: THE HIGH ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY COME
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE ENTIRETY
OF THE DAY, DROPPING NEARLY 40 DEGREES BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH ANY FALLING SNOW OR
MELTING SNOWPACK QUICKLY ICING ON ROADWAYS. ONE ASPECT THAT
MIGHT MITIGATE FLASH FREEZE CONCERNS ARE THE BREEZY WINDS --
GUSTS AS STRONG 40 TO 50 MPH WOULD HELP DRY THE MELTED SNOW
BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO ICE BACK UP.
BREEZY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW: WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREAD EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, THOUGH REMAIN STRONGEST ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA (ROUGHLY
EXTENDING FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY DOWN THROUGH MARTIN COUNTY).
BECAUSE OF HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SETUP, A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH THE
EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAC QUI PARLE AND YELLOW MEDICINE
COUNTIES MAY SEE GUSTS APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA. THESE
BREEZY WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH ANY FALLING SNOW COULD LEAD TO
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FREEZE AS WELL.
FRIDAY MORNING WILL FEEL QUITE COLD, WITH AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO AND WIND CHILL VALUES ON THE ORDER OF -10 TO -20
DEGREES BELOW ZERO. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED,
THOUGH WE LIKELY WE'LL COME JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA. PLUS, WE
WILL REBOUND PRETTY QUICKLY AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH
AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP THE
EXTENDED FORECAST MOSTLY DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE DECEMBER STANDARDS. WINDS ALSO SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHTER SO LONG AS NO MAJOR WINTER SYSTEMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
SWATH OF MVFR STRATUS OVER CENTRAL MN HAS MADE GOOD PROGRESS
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE 16/06Z TAFS AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT RWF. AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS AWAY FROM THE AREA,
BREEZY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF CLOSE TO SUNRISE AS A
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, ALLOWING
WINDS TO GO LIGHT/VARIABLE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH STRONG WINDS OFF THE DECK, SUCH THAT
LLWS CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALSO COINCIDING WITH THIS STRONG INCREASE IN
WINDS WILL BE THE RAMPING UP OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE DURING THE
DAY AND EVENING TOMORROW, STARTING OUT BELOW FREEZING THEN
RISING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
REMAINING IN THE MID-UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THUS, WHILE THERE IS A SMALL NON-ZERO CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, THE VAST BULK WILL COME AS RAIN.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION HERE LOOKS TO BE EAU, WHERE THE COLDEST AIR
WILL BE STUCK THE LONGEST. THUS, AT EAU, THERE MAY BE A MIXTURE
OF FZDZ AND SN FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
SUFFICIENT WARMING ALLOWS THE P-TYPE TO FALL AS RAIN.
KMSP...NO APPRECIABLE ISSUES UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP, STRONG LLWS CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND RAIN
IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL NON-ZERO CHANCE THAT
FZDZ MAY PRECEDE THE RAINFALL, BUT ANY ICING IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED AS RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM AROUND 00Z ONWARD AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING, LIMITING ANY FZDZ
IMPACTS TO NON-GROUND SURFACES (I.E. AIRCRAFT, JET BRIDGES,
VEHICLES, CARTS, ETC).
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR WITH -SN LIKELY. ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1". WIND NW
15-20G30KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. WIND NW 5-10KTS
BECOMING SE 10-15G25KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR BROWN-
CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MARTIN-POPE-
REDWOOD-RENVILLE-STEVENS-SWIFT-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC
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