350
FXUS63 KMPX 171144
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
544 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN, WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW & FREEZING DRIZZLE,
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
- LIGHT SNOW, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, & PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.
- MOSTLY DRY AND NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER A COLD
FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN THIS MORNING AFTER GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH
LATE LAST NIGHT. SLIGHT RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
WARM ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN. WE DON'T LOOK TO GET AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY, THOUGH WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON, INCREASING BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S.
PART OF THIS WARM UP IS INFLUENCED BY THE PACIFIC MARITIME
AIRMASS ADVECTED EAST AHEAD OF THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW NEAR THE
CANADIAN/US BORDER. THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE PROJECTS HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR A SUB-990 MB LOW AS IT MOVES EAST NEAR THE
CANADA/MINNESOTA BORDER, OWING TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS ALONG
THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTS NEAR
25-30 MPH BY THIS EVENING.
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF ASPECTS TO THIS SYSTEM THAT MAKE IT AN
INTERESTING ONE TO MESSAGE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WHILE
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT (AROUND 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES
OF QPF), THERE COULD STILL BE A NUMBER OF IMPACTS. LET'S BREAK
IT DOWN.
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE: THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION HAS
TRENDED LATER, STARTING CLOSER TO 6-7PM RATHER THAN MID
AFTERNOON. THIS LEANS IN THE FAVOR OF TEMPERATURES BEING WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOST FOLKS TO SEE ALL RAIN THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
STILL BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES DO NOT WARM AS QUICKLY. RAIN WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AS A BROAD DRY SLOT COVERS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
RELATIVELY DEEP (~5-8K FT) DGZ AS THE FRONT INITIALLY MOVES
THROUGH, SUGGESTING SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES ARE
POSSIBLE. OVERALL THOUGH, AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
(AROUND AN INCH OR LESS) DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO END ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
FALLING TEMPERATURES: THE HIGH ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY COME
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE ENTIRETY
OF THE DAY, DROPPING NEARLY 40 DEGREES BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH ANY FALLING SNOW OR
MELTING SNOWPACK QUICKLY ICING ON ROADWAYS. ONE ASPECT THAT
MIGHT MITIGATE FLASH FREEZE CONCERNS ARE THE BREEZY WINDS --
GUSTS AS STRONG 40 TO 50 MPH WOULD HELP DRY THE MELTED SNOW
BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO ICE BACK UP.
BREEZY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW: WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREAD EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, THOUGH REMAIN STRONGEST ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA (ROUGHLY
EXTENDING FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY DOWN THROUGH MARTIN COUNTY).
BECAUSE OF HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SETUP, A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH THE
EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAC QUI PARLE AND YELLOW MEDICINE
COUNTIES MAY SEE GUSTS APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA. THESE
BREEZY WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH ANY FALLING SNOW COULD LEAD TO
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FREEZE AS WELL.
FRIDAY MORNING WILL FEEL QUITE COLD, WITH AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO AND WIND CHILL VALUES ON THE ORDER OF -10 TO -20
DEGREES BELOW ZERO. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED,
THOUGH WE LIKELY WE'LL COME JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA. PLUS, WE
WILL REBOUND PRETTY QUICKLY AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH
AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP THE
EXTENDED FORECAST MOSTLY DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE DECEMBER STANDARDS. WINDS ALSO SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHTER SO LONG AS NO MAJOR WINTER SYSTEMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
LIGHT WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY BE
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND NOON. WINDS WILL PICK
UP EVEN MORE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO WESTERLY.
LLWS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING AT ALL
SITES. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE TODAY, SURPASSING
FREEZING BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE.
THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION, BUT EXPECTING MOST TO BE RAIN. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION HERE LOOKS TO BE EAU, WHERE THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE
STUCK THE LONGEST. AS A RESULT, THERE MAY BE A MIXTURE OF FZDZ
AND SN FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY EVENING AT EAU BEFORE
SUFFICIENT WARMING ALLOWS THE P-TYPE TO FALL AS RAIN.
KMSP...STRONG LLWS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING, WITH RAIN TO FOLLOW
A FEW HOURS AFTER THAT. THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE THAT FZDZ
MAY PRECEDE THE RAINFALL, BUT ANY ICING POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT- LIVED. RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM AROUND 02Z ONWARD AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING, LIMITING ANY FZDZ
IMPACTS TO ELEVATED SURFACES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR WITH -SN LIKELY. ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1". WIND NW
15-20G30KTS.
FRI...MAINLY VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. WIND NW 5-10KTS
BECOMING SE 10-15G25KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR BROWN-
CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MARTIN-POPE-
REDWOOD-RENVILLE-STEVENS-SWIFT-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...PV
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