918
FXUS63 KMPX 171800
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1200 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN, WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW & FREEZING DRIZZLE,
SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
- LIGHT SNOW, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, & PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING.
- MOSTLY DRY AND NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER A COLD
FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN THIS MORNING AFTER GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH
LATE LAST NIGHT. SLIGHT RIDGING SLIDES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
WARM ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN. WE DON'T LOOK TO GET AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY, THOUGH WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON, INCREASING BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE 30S.
PART OF THIS WARM UP IS INFLUENCED BY THE PACIFIC MARITIME
AIRMASS ADVECTED EAST AHEAD OF THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW NEAR THE
CANADIAN/US BORDER. THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE PROJECTS HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR A SUB-990 MB LOW AS IT MOVES EAST NEAR THE
CANADA/MINNESOTA BORDER, OWING TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS ALONG
THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD GUSTS NEAR
25-30 MPH BY THIS EVENING.
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF ASPECTS TO THIS SYSTEM THAT MAKE IT AN
INTERESTING ONE TO MESSAGE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WHILE
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT (AROUND 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES
OF QPF), THERE COULD STILL BE A NUMBER OF IMPACTS. LET'S BREAK
IT DOWN.
TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE: THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION HAS
TRENDED LATER, STARTING CLOSER TO 6-7PM RATHER THAN MID
AFTERNOON. THIS LEANS IN THE FAVOR OF TEMPERATURES BEING WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOST FOLKS TO SEE ALL RAIN THIS EVENING. THERE WILL
STILL BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN WHERE TEMPERATURES DO NOT WARM AS QUICKLY. RAIN WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER
AS A BROAD DRY SLOT COVERS THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
RELATIVELY DEEP (~5-8K FT) DGZ AS THE FRONT INITIALLY MOVES
THROUGH, SUGGESTING SOME PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES ARE
POSSIBLE. OVERALL THOUGH, AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
(AROUND AN INCH OR LESS) DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO END ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
FALLING TEMPERATURES: THE HIGH ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY COME
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE ENTIRETY
OF THE DAY, DROPPING NEARLY 40 DEGREES BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THIS
COULD LEAD TO SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH ANY FALLING SNOW OR
MELTING SNOWPACK QUICKLY ICING ON ROADWAYS. ONE ASPECT THAT
MIGHT MITIGATE FLASH FREEZE CONCERNS ARE THE BREEZY WINDS --
GUSTS AS STRONG 40 TO 50 MPH WOULD HELP DRY THE MELTED SNOW
BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO ICE BACK UP.
BREEZY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW: WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
WESTERN MINNESOTA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE ARCTIC FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS SPREAD EAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, THOUGH REMAIN STRONGEST ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA (ROUGHLY
EXTENDING FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY DOWN THROUGH MARTIN COUNTY).
BECAUSE OF HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SETUP, A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH THE
EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAC QUI PARLE AND YELLOW MEDICINE
COUNTIES MAY SEE GUSTS APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA. THESE
BREEZY WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH ANY FALLING SNOW COULD LEAD TO
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FREEZE AS WELL.
FRIDAY MORNING WILL FEEL QUITE COLD, WITH AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO AND WIND CHILL VALUES ON THE ORDER OF -10 TO -20
DEGREES BELOW ZERO. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED,
THOUGH WE LIKELY WE'LL COME JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA. PLUS, WE
WILL REBOUND PRETTY QUICKLY AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH
AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP THE
EXTENDED FORECAST MOSTLY DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE DECEMBER STANDARDS. WINDS ALSO SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
LIGHTER SO LONG AS NO MAJOR WINTER SYSTEMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INCREASING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. A POTENT SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST OUT
OF THE DAKOTAS AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THROUGH
NORTHERN MN TONIGHT. A RATHER PRONOUNCED WIND SHEAR SCENARIO IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS EVOLUTION. HAVE INCLUDED
SEVERAL HOURS OF LLWS AT EACH TERMINAL IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
TIMING OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS MOVING OVER THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS (FORECAST TO GUST
UPWARDS OF 35+ KTS). A BAND OF RAIN WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MVFR
VISIBILITY FOR A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD AT EACH TERMINAL. THE 18Z
TAFS CAPTURE THE ARRIVAL TIME OF RAIN AT THE WESTERN MN
TERMINALS STARTING AT ROUGHLY 2-3Z, THE EASTERN MN TERMINALS
AROUND 4-5Z, AND INTO WESTERN WI BY 6-7Z. A WEDGE OF DRY AIR IN
THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF THE
MOST PERSISTENT RAIN/LOWEST VISIBILITY. THIS ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL RAIN FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
TERMINALS, HOWEVER STRONG COLD ADVECTION MAY ALLOW FOR A MIX OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE WI TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST IN THIS AT EAU, WHERE AT TEMPO FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS INCLUDED.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AND CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND CONCLUSION
OF RAIN/MIXED PRECIPITATION. THIS IS DUE TO THE SYSTEM'S DRY
SLOT MOVING OVER THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. THE
SECOND CHAPTER OF THE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL BRING WRAP AROUND SNOW
AND STRONG WNW WINDS (GUSTS 35-40+ KTS) TO THE REGION LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY SHOULD
REMAIN AT AN INCH OR LESS, BUT THE CONVECTIVE "BURST" NATURE TO
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF UP AND DOWN VISIBILITY
AND THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS, PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES,
AND FALLING SNOW MAY LEAD TO THE QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF ICY
CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
KMSP...MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TAF WILL BE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG LLWS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. RAIN ARRIVES AROUND ~5Z WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR
VISIBILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN THROUGH ROUGHLY ~9/10Z.
SHOULD HAVE A QUIET PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY THE
RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES (THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF SNOW)
WHICH MAY ACCUMULATE UP TO 1" TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED
A PROB30 TO CAPTURE THE TIMING OF SNOW IMPACTS. THIS LOOKS TO BE
ONE OF THOSE WINTER SCENARIOS WHERE MSP WILL BE IN AND OUT OF
THE LOWER VISIBILITY AS HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH. STRONG WNW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST UPWARDS OF
35-40KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND SE 10-15G25KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND W 5-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR BROWN-
CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MARTIN-POPE-
REDWOOD-RENVILLE-STEVENS-SWIFT-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...STRUS
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