698
FXUS63 KMPX 180514
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1114 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40-50 MPH, & PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
- WINTER TRAVEL IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM A COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY
WINDS CAUSING LOW VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW, & FLASH FREEZE
CONDITIONS CAUSING ICY ROADS & SURFACES.
- PRECIPITATION BEGINS THIS EVENING AS LIGHT RAIN SPREADS
EASTWARDS ACROSS THE AREA, ENDING OVERNIGHT AS A DRY SLOT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 736 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
TO THIS POINT, NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST.
THE 00Z MPX SOUNDING DID SHOW ABOUT 13K FEET OF DRY AIR
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO BATTLE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND AND
FOR THAT REASON, WE DID DELAY THE EASTWARD PUSH OF RAIN CHANCES
THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE REASONING BEHIND THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF CRASHING TEMPERATURES
(WE SHOULD GO FROM ABOUT 38 TO 10 BETWEEN SUNRISE AND SUNSET IN
THE METRO) RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FREEZE
CONDITIONS, THE LIGHT SNOW (THAT WILL LIKELY COME IN A COUPLE OF
STRONGER BURSTS WITH THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW
ENVIRONMENT), AND THE WINDS TO BLOW THAT SNOW AROUND ALL ADDS UP
TO WHAT COULD BE A DICEY DRIVER HOME THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE HAVE NOT CHANGED HEADLINE CONFIGURATION, BUT
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH THE WRAP
AROUND PRECIP CAN MAKE IT ON THURSDAY, A SOUTHWARD EXPANSION IN
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FOR DECEMBER TRACKS ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER.
CURRENTLY, OUR SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA/SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, & NEAR ITS PEAK STRENGTH OF 980 MB. THE LOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY AS IT SKIRTS EASTWARDS ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH THE DAKOTAS & GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW, MAKING IT ONE OF THE STRONGER SYSTEMS WE HAVE
SEEN IN THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA FOR MID-DECEMBER. WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE CLD FRONT
HIS AFTERNOON, WITH ALL LOCATIONS ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING &
EXPECTED TO WARM EVEN MORE INTO THE UPPER 30S & LOW 40S BY THE
TIME PRECIPITATION ARRIVES THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD MAKE OUR
PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECASTER MUCH CLEANER THAN PRIOR FORECASTS,
AS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT
RAIN AS THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT.
LOCALIZED FREEZING PRECIPITATION CAN'T TOTALLY BE RULED OUT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING, WHERE
STUBBORN POCKETS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD STILL
EXIST, BUT WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL QUICKLY
MITIGATE ANY SMALL THREAT FOR ICE.
THE RAIN WE GET WILL BE LIGHT, ON THE ORDER OF 0.10-0.25", &
ENDS AFTER A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEP & OCCLUDED LOW
PULLS A WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS OF 30-40 MPH WITH THE RAIN THIS EVENING WILL SLACKEN
AS THIS DRY SLOT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, WITH THESE RELATIVELY
BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING,
BUT MOST LIKELY THE ENTIRE MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS DRASTICALLY CHANGE THROUGH THE MORNING HOWEVER, AS
THE ARCTIC FRONT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH MINNESOTA & WISCONSIN. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WITH THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY AS
WELL AS VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT IN THE WRAP- AROUND REGION OF THE LOW, WITH LOCALIZED
BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW LIKELY IN SPORADIC SNOW SQUALLS. WE ARE
ONLY EXPECTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR LESS
WITH THIS LIGHT SNOW, BUT THE GUSTY WINDS COUPLED WITH THE
FALLING SNOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY.
ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS & BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ICY FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS AS WHATEVER SNOW THAT FALLS IN
ADDITION TO ANY ANTECEDENT MOISTURE QUICKLY ICES UP ON ROADS &
OTHER SURFACES. WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA, THE TWIN CITIES METRO, &
WESTERN WISCONSIN, FOR THE AGGREGATE OF THESE TRAVEL HAZARDS,
AS THE COMBINATION OF LOWER VISIBILITY & FLASH FREEZE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.
THE LIGHT SNOW WILL WRAP UP THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG WITH THE
WINDS WEAKENING, BUT CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS AROUND
-10 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH LOWS NEAR ZERO
ELSEWHERE, WHILE WIND CHILLS VALUES WILL APPROACH -25 ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WE'RE STILL NOT QUITE OUT OF THE WOODS WITH
WINTRY PRECIP FRIDAY, AS A SHORTWAVE ON THE HEELS;LS OF OUR
DEPARTING SYSTEM COULD GENERATE A LIGHT SWATH OF A WINTRY MIX
OF SNOW & FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA & WESTERN
WISCONSIN. STRONG ZONAL FLOW THEN SITS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY MAJOR
WINTER SYSTEMS OVER THE REGION FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
HOWEVER, ANY SUBTLE WAVES WITHIN THE JET COULD CREATE CHANCES
FOR LIGHT PRECIP, SO WE MAY SEE MULTIPLE NUISANCE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND & INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN FAIRLY REASONABLE GIVE THE ZONAL FLOW, BUT WE WILL
LIKELY STAY OF TO THE NORTH OF ANY POTENTIAL WARM AIRMASSES
GIVEN THE JET OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS, WE'VE SEEN THE DRY AIR BEING
OVERCOME WITH RAIN MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE. GOING TAFS HAD A
PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS RAIN, WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING TO
HOLD IT ON A BIT LONGER IN WESTERN WI IN THE MORNING. CIGS WILL
BE VFR IN WESTERN MN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS RAIN, BUT CIGS
WILL BE LOWERING AS IT MOVES EAST, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AT STC/MKT/MSP EXPECTED, THEY WILL BE IFR BY THE TIME IT
GETS TO WESTERN WI. CIGS WILL IMPROVE FOR THE MORNING AS THE DRY
SLOT MOVES THROUGH, BUT MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON
AS THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN. WITH THOSE CLOUDS WILL
ALSO COME THE RISK OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME TEMPORARY
STRONGER BURSTS OF SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WHICH EXPLAINS THE
TEMPO IFR GROUPS WE HAVE FOR -SN AT ALL TERMINALS.
KMSP...HOPEFULLY, WINDS HAVE ENOUGH OF WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
THEM BY THE TIME THE MORNING PUSH STARTS ON THURSDAY THAT MSP
WILL BE ABLE TO START OFF ON THE 30S, BUT IF THEY AREN'T ABLE TO
START THE DAY ON THE 30S, THEN A TRANSITION FROM THE 12S TO THE
30S WILL NEED TO HAPPEN BETWEEN 6AM AND 8AM.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. CHC MVFR/-SN OVERNIGHT. WIND SE 10-15G25KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 10-20G30KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND W 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
DOUGLAS-POPE-STEARNS-STEVENS-TODD.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR BLUE EARTH-
BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-
MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-
SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WATONWAN-YELLOW
MEDICINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM CST THURSDAY FOR
ANOKA-BENTON-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-RAMSEY-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-
WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR CARVER-DAKOTA-
FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-RICE-SCOTT-STEELE-
WASECA-WRIGHT.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PIERCE-
POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
UPDATE...MPG
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...MPG
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