379
FXUS63 KMPX 180845
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
245 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40-50 MPH, & PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT EXPECTED THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
- WINTER TRAVEL IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM A COMBINATION OF THE GUSTY
WINDS CAUSING LOW VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW, & POTENTIAL
FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS CAUSING ICY ROADS & SURFACES.
- MOSTLY DRY AND NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER
A COLD FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
VERY INTENSE MID-LATITUDE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES HAS LED TO A WIDESPREAD, AND RATHER INTENSE LOW-LEVEL
RESPONSE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. LATEST WPC SURFACE ANALYSIS
PLACES A 984MB LOW NEAR THE NODAK/NORTHERN MN BORDER WITH A
FRONT EXTENDING STRAIGHT SOUTH. LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ALONG THIS
FRONT WITH NO MAJOR THREAT FOR FREEZING PRECIP GIVEN
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR.
A WELL-DEFINED DRY SLOT IS WRAPPED INTO THE OCCLUDED LOW, GIVING
AREAS A FEW HOURS OF DRY WEATHER AHEAD OF THE SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIP WHICH SHOULD ALL FALL AS SNOW. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE TIED TO A SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE,
SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS WHEN THINGS REALLY
RAMP UP...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A COMBINATION OF
SEVERAL FACTORS: FALLING SNOW, VERY GUSTY WINDS LEADING TO
BLOWING SNOW AND DROPPING VISIBILITIES, AND PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES. ANY OF THESE CONDITIONS BY THEMSELVES LIKELY
WOULD NOT WARRANT AN ADVISORY, IT REALLY IS THE COMBINED THREAT
OF THEM ALL IN THE SAME TIMEFRAME THAT ESCALATES THE IMPACTS.
SNOWFALL WILL BE OVERALL LIGHT (GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS),
THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW ENVIRONMENT COULD
SUPPORT BRIEF, STRONGER BURSTS OF SNOW. IF YOU OVERLAP HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35+ MPH GUSTS, LOCALIZED
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE ONSET OF SNOW WILL
OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH AREAS OF WESTERN MN SEEING IMPACTS
AS EARLY AS THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE AREA OF SNOW WILL REACH
EASTERN MN AROUND NOON, AND WESTERN WI BY MID AFTERNOON. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO END BY THE EVENING COMMUTE FOR WESTERN MN. ON THE
FLIP SIDE, THIS MAY BE THE MOST CHALLENGING PERIOD FOR EASTERN
MN AND THE TWIN CITIES METRO AS SNOW WILL HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR
A FEW HOURS AND COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PEAK TRAVEL TIME. IF
SNOWFALL RATES ARE NOT AS BAD AND SNOWFALL ENDS SOONER, THE MAIN
HEADACHES WILL BE DEALING WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND ANY ICING
THAT OCCURS ON ROADWAYS. THE QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS WHERE ANY SNOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE
QUICKLY FREEZES ONTO UNTREATED ROADS AND SURFACES. ONE THING
THAT MAY MITIGATE FLASH FREEZE CONCERNS WILL BE HOW MUCH THE
GUSTY WINDS CAN DRY ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE BEFORE IT HAS TIME TO
FREEZE. SNOW WILL WANE OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW EXITS
THE REGION TONIGHT.
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A COLD ONE ON THE BACK END OF THE
DEPARTING LOW. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO, AS COLD AS 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO IN WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ADDING IN WIND, APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, AND AS COLD AS 25 TO 30
BELOW IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DESPITE THIS, TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND NICELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST,
WITH WESTERN WISCONSIN POTENTIALLY BEING THE OUTLIER AND NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE TEENS. FRIDAY ALSO BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR A
SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH AND BRING LIGHT PRECIP TO THE REGION.
GIVEN RECENT GUIDANCE, ANY PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AS SNOW, BUT
P-TYPES WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL.
SEASONABLE ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF BOUT OF CAA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOOKING TO MONDAY ONWARD, A LARGE RIDGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE COUNTRY HEADING INTO THE WEEK OF
CHRISTMAS. CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS ARE AROUND 13 FOR LOWS AND 27
FOR HIGHS THIS WEEK AND BY CHRISTMAS EVE, THOSE NORMAL HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE OUR LOWS. GIVEN ZONAL FLOW ON THE NORTHERN EDGE
OF THE RIDGE, NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS LOOK LIKELY IN THE NEAR
FUTURE, AIDING IN ANY HOLIDAY TRAVEL CONCERNS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS, WE'VE SEEN THE DRY AIR BEING
OVERCOME WITH RAIN MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE. GOING TAFS HAD A
PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS RAIN, WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING TO
HOLD IT ON A BIT LONGER IN WESTERN WI IN THE MORNING. CIGS WILL
BE VFR IN WESTERN MN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS RAIN, BUT CIGS
WILL BE LOWERING AS IT MOVES EAST, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS AT STC/MKT/MSP EXPECTED, THEY WILL BE IFR BY THE TIME IT
GETS TO WESTERN WI. CIGS WILL IMPROVE FOR THE MORNING AS THE DRY
SLOT MOVES THROUGH, BUT MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON
AS THE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE MOVES IN. WITH THOSE CLOUDS WILL
ALSO COME THE RISK OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL
TERMINALS. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME TEMPORARY
STRONGER BURSTS OF SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WHICH EXPLAINS THE
TEMPO IFR GROUPS WE HAVE FOR -SN AT ALL TERMINALS.
KMSP...HOPEFULLY, WINDS HAVE ENOUGH OF WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
THEM BY THE TIME THE MORNING PUSH STARTS ON THURSDAY THAT MSP
WILL BE ABLE TO START OFF ON THE 30S, BUT IF THEY AREN'T ABLE TO
START THE DAY ON THE 30S, THEN A TRANSITION FROM THE 12S TO THE
30S WILL NEED TO HAPPEN BETWEEN 6AM AND 8AM.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. CHC MVFR/-SN OVERNIGHT. WIND SE 10-15G25KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 10-20G30KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND W 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING FOR DOUGLAS-POPE-STEARNS-STEVENS-TODD.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-KANDIYOHI-
LAC QUI PARLE-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WATONWAN-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST
THIS EVENING FOR ANOKA-BENTON-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-
HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-RAMSEY-SCOTT-
SHERBURNE-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
CARVER-DAKOTA-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-RICE-
SCOTT-STEELE-WASECA-WRIGHT.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PIERCE-POLK-
RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...BED/PV
AVIATION...MPG
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