111
FXUS63 KMPX 181832
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1232 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BLOWING SNOW & ICY FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING.
- PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLED DIGITS & BELOW
ZERO THIS EVENING. WIND CHILLS BELOW -20 DEGREES ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT.
- A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, & SLEET IS LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
VERY ACTIVE CONDITIONS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AS A VERY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE FOR DECEMBER CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARDS
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE DRY SLOT
FROM THIS OCCLUDED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARDS INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO BENIGN
CONDITIONS - FOR NOW. MEANWHILE, A POTENT ARCTIC FRONT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS FROM A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS, LOW VISIBILITY
FROM BLOWING SNOW, & PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN FLASH
FREEZE CONDITIONS.
FIRST OFF: THE WIND. SO FAR PRIOR WIND FORECASTS REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45-50 MPH ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. A FEW SITES HAVE SEEN PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH,
BUT WE'LL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO TOP OUT
AROUND 50 MPH AS THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARDS
ACROSS MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOES SLACKEN FARTHER EAST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN ALONG WITH THE
ROUGHER TERRAIN, SO EXPECT THE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH TO EXTEND
INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON, WHILE SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS OF 35-45 MPH ARE MOST
LIKELY INTO WISCONSIN. THE GUSTS WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING BY THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST, BUT WINDS WILL STILL GUST
TO AROUND 30 MPH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS, WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES
TO SPREAD EASTWARDS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE MAIN HAZARDS
FROM THIS SNOW IS THE LOW VISIBILITY AS THE STRONG GUSTS CREATE
ALMOST AN "ICY FOG" OF THE SHREDDED SNOWFLAKES/ICE CRYSTALS.
VISIBILITIES ARE VERY LOW ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA, BELOW 1
MILE AT TIMES, & WE EXPECT THESE LOW VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE
TO SPREAD EASTWARDS INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR & WESTERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE NOT AS BAD ACROSS
EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER & THERE IS MORE TERRAIN, BUT WILL STILL LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE.
AGAIN, THE IMPACTS FROM THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL NOT BE FROM THE
AMOUNTS AS WE'RE EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO BE LESS THAN AN
INCH, RATHER FROM THE LOW VISIBILITY FROM THE FALLING SNOW.
DESPITE THE RATHER LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH, THE CONCERN LATER THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS DUSTING OF SNOW TO QUICKLY COMPACT & FREEZE
ON ROADS & SURFACES AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE IN SOME AREAS THAT THE SNOW IS SO
LIGHT THAT IT JUST BLOWS ENTIRELY OFF OF THE ROADS & IS UNABLE
TO FREEZE UP INTO THE ICE, BUT WE REALLY ARE STRESSING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SLOW & ICY COMMUTE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN
THE TWIN CITIES METRO & MAJOR TRAVEL CORRIDORS. THESE FLASH
FREEZE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END.
SO TO SUMMARIZE, WE ARE EXPECTING A SLOW & ICY COMMUTE THIS
AFTERNOON & EVENING FROM THE COMBINATION OF BLOWING SNOW & FLASH
FREEZE CONDITIONS. PLEASE PLAN ON TAKING EXTRA TIME, SLOW DOWN,
KEEP EXTRA SPACE BETWEEN VEHICLES, & ENSURE THAT HEADLIGHTS ARE
ON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN
WI, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO W AND NW AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN SPEEDS. WINDS IN WESTERN MN ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED
AROUND 30G40KTS, WITH THOSE SPEEDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD
THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN MN INTO EASTERN MN, DROPPING
VISIBILITY TO 1-2SM IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG INCREASE IN
WINDS. CEILINGS ARE ALREADY IN MVFR RANGE, AND MAY DROP TO IFR
WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW REACHES ANY TERMINAL (MAINLY AS A VV
RATHER THAN AN ACTUAL CEILING, BUT THE IMPACTS ARE THE SAME).
CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING TO VFR WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING THEREAFTER OF HIGH CIRRUS, BUT THE STRONG WINDS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE GOING LIGHT/VARIABLE WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS
BUT THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY.
KMSP...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE LOOKING TO MOVE ACROSS MSP NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER INITIALIZATION, BUT THE MORE STEADIER/HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON, IN THE 22Z-02Z
TIMEFRAME. POTENTIALLY, IF ANYTHING, AN HOUR EARLIER GIVEN SOME
RADAR TRENDS. BUT THESE HEAVIER BANDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
STRONG WINDS WILL DROP VISIBILITY TO 1-2SM. THE STRONG WINDS IN
COMBO WITH RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING
MAY STILL LEAD TO THE FLASH FREEZE IMPACT WITH ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE ON THE GROUND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND W 5-10KTS BECOMING S.
MON...VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. WIND SSE 10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLUE
EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI
PARLE-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-
SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WATONWAN-YELLOW
MEDICINE.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-
CARVER-CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-
HENNEPIN-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-
MEEKER-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-
STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ANOKA-
BENTON-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-
ISANTI-KANABEC-LE SUEUR-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-RAMSEY-RICE-
SCOTT-SHERBURNE-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...ETA/PV
AVIATION...JPC
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