913
FXUS63 KMPX 182337
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
537 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BLOWING SNOW & ICY FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING.
- PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLED DIGITS & BELOW
ZERO THIS EVENING. WIND CHILLS BELOW -20 DEGREES ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT.
- A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, & SLEET IS LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
VERY ACTIVE CONDITIONS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AS A VERY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE FOR DECEMBER CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARDS
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE DRY SLOT
FROM THIS OCCLUDED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARDS INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO BENIGN
CONDITIONS - FOR NOW. MEANWHILE, A POTENT ARCTIC FRONT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS FROM A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS, LOW VISIBILITY
FROM BLOWING SNOW, & PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN FLASH
FREEZE CONDITIONS.
FIRST OFF: THE WIND. SO FAR PRIOR WIND FORECASTS REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45-50 MPH ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. A FEW SITES HAVE SEEN PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH,
BUT WE'LL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO TOP OUT
AROUND 50 MPH AS THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARDS
ACROSS MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES
SLACKEN FARTHER EAST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN ALONG WITH THE
ROUGHER TERRAIN, SO EXPECT THE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH TO EXTEND INTO
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON,
WHILE SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS OF 35-45 MPH ARE MOST LIKELY INTO
WISCONSIN. THE GUSTS WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST, BUT WINDS WILL STILL GUST TO AROUND
30 MPH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS, WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES
TO SPREAD EASTWARDS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE MAIN HAZARDS
FROM THIS SNOW IS THE LOW VISIBILITY AS THE STRONG GUSTS CREATE
ALMOST AN "ICY FOG" OF THE SHREDDED SNOWFLAKES/ICE CRYSTALS.
VISIBILITIES ARE VERY LOW ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA, BELOW 1 MILE
AT TIMES, & WE EXPECT THESE LOW VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EASTWARDS INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR & WESTERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE NOT AS BAD ACROSS
EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER & THERE IS MORE TERRAIN, BUT WILL STILL LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE. AGAIN,
THE IMPACTS FROM THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL NOT BE FROM THE AMOUNTS
AS WE'RE EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH,
RATHER FROM THE LOW VISIBILITY FROM THE FALLING SNOW.
DESPITE THE RATHER LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH, THE CONCERN LATER THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS DUSTING OF SNOW TO QUICKLY COMPACT & FREEZE
ON ROADS & SURFACES AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE IN SOME AREAS THAT THE SNOW IS SO LIGHT
THAT IT JUST BLOWS ENTIRELY OFF OF THE ROADS & IS UNABLE TO
FREEZE UP INTO THE ICE, BUT WE REALLY ARE STRESSING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SLOW & ICY COMMUTE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN
THE TWIN CITIES METRO & MAJOR TRAVEL CORRIDORS. THESE FLASH
FREEZE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END.
SO TO SUMMARIZE, WE ARE EXPECTING A SLOW & ICY COMMUTE THIS
AFTERNOON & EVENING FROM THE COMBINATION OF BLOWING SNOW & FLASH
FREEZE CONDITIONS. PLEASE PLAN ON TAKING EXTRA TIME, SLOW DOWN,
KEEP EXTRA SPACE BETWEEN VEHICLES, & ENSURE THAT HEADLIGHTS ARE
ON.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
WHILE THE STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE AT ALL SITES, SNOW HAS ENDED
IN FAR WESTERN MN AND THE BACK EDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING. THAT SAID, THE SITES STILL DEALING WITH THE
BANDS OF SNOW WILL HAVE VISIBILITIES DOWN AS LOW AS 1SM, NOT OF
LONG DURATION AND NOT DUE TO SNOW RATES BUT DUE TO THE STRONG
WINDS BLOWING THE SNOW AND REDUCING VISIBILITY. AS THE SNOW
ENDS, MVFR CEILINGS WILL STILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A MIXTURE OF SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUD COVERAGE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. NW WINDS WILL STEADILY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, EVEN GOING LIGHT/VARIABLE FOR A PERIOD FROM
AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE
SSE AT NEAR 10KTS.
KMSP...ONE OR TWO HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WILL STILL PUSH ACROSS
MSP EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO NEAR 1SM,
OTHERWISE MVFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATER
THIS EVENING BEFORE IMPROVEMENT TAKES SHAPE. CEILINGS WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE MVFR RANGE THIS EVENING, NOT REACHING
VFR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG NW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, NOT DROPPING OFF UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE, WITH
WINDS DROPPING OFF TO LIGHT/VARIABLE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14Z-17Z
THEN PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND W 5-10KTS BECOMING S.
MON...VFR. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. WIND SSE 10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-YELLOW
MEDICINE.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-
CARVER-CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-
HENNEPIN-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-
MEEKER-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-
STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ANOKA-
BENTON-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-RAMSEY-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-
WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLUE EARTH-
BROWN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-NICOLLET-RICE-
SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...ETA/PV
AVIATION...JPC
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