701
FXUS63 KMPX 190456
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1056 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BLOWING SNOW & ICY FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING.
- PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLED DIGITS & BELOW
ZERO THIS EVENING. WIND CHILLS BELOW -20 DEGREES ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT.
- A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, & SLEET IS LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
VERY ACTIVE CONDITIONS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AS A VERY
STRONG LOW PRESSURE FOR DECEMBER CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARDS
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE DRY SLOT
FROM THIS OCCLUDED SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARDS INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO BENIGN
CONDITIONS - FOR NOW. MEANWHILE, A POTENT ARCTIC FRONT ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS WINTER TRAVEL
CONDITIONS FROM A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS, LOW VISIBILITY
FROM BLOWING SNOW, & PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN FLASH
FREEZE CONDITIONS.
FIRST OFF: THE WIND. SO FAR PRIOR WIND FORECASTS REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 45-50 MPH ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. A FEW SITES HAVE SEEN PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH,
BUT WE'LL PROBABLY SEE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO TOP OUT
AROUND 50 MPH AS THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARDS
ACROSS MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES
SLACKEN FARTHER EAST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN ALONG WITH THE
ROUGHER TERRAIN, SO EXPECT THE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH TO EXTEND INTO
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON,
WHILE SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS OF 35-45 MPH ARE MOST LIKELY INTO
WISCONSIN. THE GUSTS WILL BEGIN DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW EXITS TO THE EAST, BUT WINDS WILL STILL GUST TO AROUND
30 MPH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS, WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES
TO SPREAD EASTWARDS BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE MAIN HAZARDS
FROM THIS SNOW IS THE LOW VISIBILITY AS THE STRONG GUSTS CREATE
ALMOST AN "ICY FOG" OF THE SHREDDED SNOWFLAKES/ICE CRYSTALS.
VISIBILITIES ARE VERY LOW ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA, BELOW 1 MILE
AT TIMES, & WE EXPECT THESE LOW VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EASTWARDS INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR & WESTERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE NOT AS BAD ACROSS
EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER & THERE IS MORE TERRAIN, BUT WILL STILL LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE. AGAIN,
THE IMPACTS FROM THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL NOT BE FROM THE AMOUNTS
AS WE'RE EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH,
RATHER FROM THE LOW VISIBILITY FROM THE FALLING SNOW.
DESPITE THE RATHER LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS OF HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH, THE CONCERN LATER THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THIS DUSTING OF SNOW TO QUICKLY COMPACT & FREEZE
ON ROADS & SURFACES AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BEHIND THE ARCTIC
FRONT. THERE IS A CHANCE IN SOME AREAS THAT THE SNOW IS SO LIGHT
THAT IT JUST BLOWS ENTIRELY OFF OF THE ROADS & IS UNABLE TO
FREEZE UP INTO THE ICE, BUT WE REALLY ARE STRESSING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SLOW & ICY COMMUTE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN
THE TWIN CITIES METRO & MAJOR TRAVEL CORRIDORS. THESE FLASH
FREEZE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END.
SO TO SUMMARIZE, WE ARE EXPECTING A SLOW & ICY COMMUTE THIS
AFTERNOON & EVENING FROM THE COMBINATION OF BLOWING SNOW & FLASH
FREEZE CONDITIONS. PLEASE PLAN ON TAKING EXTRA TIME, SLOW DOWN,
KEEP EXTRA SPACE BETWEEN VEHICLES, & ENSURE THAT HEADLIGHTS ARE
ON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
SNOW WILL BE DONE AT EAU BY 6Z, WITH VFR CIGS NOT TRAILING TOO
FAR BEHIND THE ENDING OF THE SNOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT, MAKING A SWITCH TO THE
SOUTHEAST FROM SUNRISE TO THE EARLY AFTERNOON GOING FROM WEST TO
EAST ON FRIDAY. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH
THOSE SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH THE ONLY WEATHER CONCERN THIS PERIOD
COMING AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD, WITH A NARROW BAND OF
SNOW LOOKING TO RIDE ACROSS THE NOSE OF A THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS
CENTRAL MN. THOUGH THE PREDOMINATE P-TYPE LOOKS TO BE SNOW, THE
SOUTH END OF THIS BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
WARM NOSE TO BRING A -FZRA THREAT AS WELL. MSP IS THE ONE
AIRPORT THAT LOOKS TO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT POTENTIAL
RIGHT NOW.
KMSP...THERE'S STILL SOME SPREAD ON WHAT 2 OR 3 HOUR WINDOW WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME LIGHT PRECIP, BUT A GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE HI-RES IS 8Z TO 11Z. AS SEEN WITH THE HRRR,
THERE WILL BE A LINGERING WARM NOSE THIS PRECIP WILL BE MOVING
INTO, SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME -FZRA, BUT RIGHT NOW, THAT
POTENTIAL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A FZRA CHANCE IN THE
TAF, BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND NW 15-25G35KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND S 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SSE 10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...MPG
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