321
FXUS63 KMPX 191128
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
528 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING.
- A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, & SLEET IS LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
- MILD TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 30S & LOWS
IN THE 20S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THE AFTERMATH OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE & IT'S RELATED ARCTIC AIRMASS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES BELOW
ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS HAS LED TO WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS WESTERN & CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT AND WIND
CHILL TEMPS -10 TO -20 DEGREES WILL ARRIVE FOR WESTERN WISCONSIN BY
DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES & WIND CHILLS WILL QUICKLY RECOVER AFTER
SUNRISE WITH TEMPERATURES MAKING IT INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
LATER TODAY. OUR ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO PERIOD BEGINNING TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A NARROW BAND OF SNOW IS LOOKING TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NOSE OF A THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST
WI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE PREDOMINATE P-TYPE AS SNOW, BUT
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS PRECIP BAND WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
WARM NOSE TO BRING A WINTRY MIX AS WELL. QPF AMOUNTS IN THE BAND
COULD END UP AROUND A TENTH (0.10") OF AN INCH, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
TO ROUGHLY AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THE SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL FALL AS THE WARM NOSE PUSHES IN LATER TODAY. SLR VALUES
END NEAR UP CLIMATOLOGY VALUES. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE THE BAND
SETS UP BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT WINTRY MIX OR SNOW
FALL IN THE TWIN CITIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AM. TEMPERATURES PEAK
NEAR FREEZING EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE & MUCH
COLDER AIR BUILDS BACK SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE
BACK TO NEAR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO. COLD AIR STRUGGLES TO STAY AS
SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR-NORMAL. BROAD WAA WILL RAMP
UP SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (LIFT) THAT COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. MODELS AREN'T AS EXCITED ABOUT THIS ROUND OF PRECIP
YET THE NBM HAS A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER E MN & W WI.
FAIR ENOUGH.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MILD,
PACIFIC ORIGIN AIRMASS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN JUST WEST OF THE
WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROMPT AN IMPRESSIVE RESPONSE
AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A NEAR
CONSTANT SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE WEST COAST WILL NOT MAKE IT EAST
OF THE ROCKIES... IN THE CONUS. THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK IS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA - OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WILL LEAD TO A MUCH DRIER
STRETCH ALONG WITH THE WARMTH. THIS RIDGE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER THAW
THAT'LL LEAD TO THINNING SNOWPACK. THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN JUST
AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT A RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF WARMTH THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THURSDAY'S SYSTEM WAS THE THEME
OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. AS THURSDAY'S SYSTEM GETS FARTHER AWAY
THIS MORNING, WINDS HAVE STARTED TO CALM DOWN TO AROUND 10
KNOTS. AS WE GET DEEPER INTO THE DAY WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH SOME
FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AT THE START. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. MVFR MOST LIKELY, BUT SOME IFR
PERIODS COULD OCCUR AS WELL. AS THE SNOW COMES TO AN END A
RETURN TO LOW VFR, MAYBE HIGH MVFR.
KMSP...STILL LOOKING LIKE THE GREATEST IMPACT TODAY WILL BE THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. SNOW LOOKS MOST LIKELY, BUT
STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN. THIS
FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN THE FIRST HALF HOUR TO
HOUR AS THE PRECIPITION STARTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT PM...VFR. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SE 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHANCE MVFR/SN. WIND SSE 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...NDC
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