941
FXUS63 KMPX 191956
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
156 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING.
- A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, & SLEET IS LIKELY
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
- MILD TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 30S & LOWS
IN THE 20S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THE AFTERMATH OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE & IT'S RELATED ARCTIC AIRMASS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES
BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS HAS LED TO WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS
WESTERN & CENTRAL MINNESOTA. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH EAST
OVERNIGHT AND WIND CHILL TEMPS -10 TO -20 DEGREES WILL ARRIVE
FOR WESTERN WISCONSIN BY DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES & WIND CHILLS
WILL QUICKLY RECOVER AFTER SUNRISE WITH TEMPERATURES MAKING IT
INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S LATER TODAY. OUR ATTENTION QUICKLY
TURNS TO PERIOD BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
NARROW BAND OF SNOW IS LOOKING TO MOVE ACROSS THE NOSE OF A
THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST WI. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE PREDOMINATE P-TYPE AS SNOW, BUT THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS PRECIP BAND WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
WARM NOSE TO BRING A WINTRY MIX AS WELL. QPF AMOUNTS IN THE BAND
COULD END UP AROUND A TENTH (0.10") OF AN INCH, WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE TO ROUGHLY AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS CENTRAL MN. THE
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL FALL AS THE WARM NOSE PUSHES IN LATER
TODAY. SLR VALUES END NEAR UP CLIMATOLOGY VALUES. SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE THE BAND SETS UP BUT THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SOME LIGHT WINTRY MIX OR SNOW FALL IN THE TWIN CITIES
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AM. TEMPERATURES PEAK NEAR FREEZING EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE & MUCH COLDER AIR BUILDS
BACK SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE BACK TO NEAR
ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO. COLD AIR STRUGGLES TO STAY AS SUNDAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR-NORMAL. BROAD WAA WILL RAMP UP
SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO ENOUGH
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE (LIFT) THAT COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS AREN'T AS EXCITED ABOUT THIS ROUND
OF PRECIP YET THE NBM HAS A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER E MN & W WI. FAIR ENOUGH.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY MILD,
PACIFIC ORIGIN AIRMASS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG IN JUST WEST OF
THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROMPT AN IMPRESSIVE
RESPONSE AS A BROAD RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS. A NEAR CONSTANT SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE WEST COAST
WILL NOT MAKE IT EAST OF THE ROCKIES... IN THE CONUS. THE
PRIMARY STORM TRACK IS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA - OFF TO OUR NORTH
AND WILL LEAD TO A MUCH DRIER STRETCH ALONG WITH THE WARMTH.
THIS RIDGE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER THAW THAT'LL LEAD TO THINNING
SNOWPACK. THIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN JUST AFTER THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BUT A RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
STRETCH OF WARMTH THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
BENIGN VFR CONDITIONS AT THE OUTSET FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH HIGH
CLOUDS. KMPX RADAR SHOWS RETURNS AT HIGH LEVELS ENTERING
WESTERN-CENTRAL MN BUT THESE ARE NOT REACHING THE GROUND, SO
THERE'S NO ISSUES AT THIS TIME AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS, ONE OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA AND ANOTHER OVER THE SD, WILL EAST PROGRESS
EAST IN TANDEM TONIGHT BEFORE MERGING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TOMORROW. HOWEVER, INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IN
ADVANCE OF THESE LOWS WILL SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN THE COLUMN TO
PRODUCE WEAK WINTRY WEATHER DURING THE LATE EVENING THROUGH
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO COME AS
-FZDZ UNTIL A CHANGEOVER TO -SN OCCURS AFTER ABOUT AN HOUR OR
TWO OF THE -FZDZ. A GLAZING OF ICE AT BEST IS POSSIBLE. THEN THE
-SHSN WILL LAST UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE, PRODUCING
POTENTIALLY A DUSTING TO A TENTH OR TWO OF NEW SNOWFALL.
VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO AROUND 3SM AT WORST, SINCE THE INTENSITY
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND WIND WILL BE UNDER 10KTS, WHILE CEILINGS
DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE. MVFR CEILINGS WILL THEN PERSIST FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY BEFORE CLEARING AND A WIND SHIFT TO
W-NW WITH HIGHER SPEEDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MODEST LLWS CONDITIONS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE EVENING PUSH. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
LATE THIS EVENING AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO COMMENCE AROUND 05Z, POTENTIALLY AS EARLY
AS 04Z, STARTING OUT AS -FZDZ FOR AN HOUR OR TWO, GRADUALLY
MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO -SN DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, THEN CONTINUING AS -SN UNTIL A SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE.
ANY ICING WOULD BE A GLAZING AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
A TRACE TO A TENTH OR TWO. VISIBILITY AT WORST LOOKS TO BE 3SM,
DUE TO LOW INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL AND WINDS REMAINING UNDER 10KTS
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY TO AROUND 15G25KTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SW BECOMING SE 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHANCE MVFR/SN EARLY. WIND SSE 10-15 KTS.
TUE...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JPC
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