358
FXUS63 KMPX 200453
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1053 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, & SLEET WILL MOVE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE.
- LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
- WARMER NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LOWS IN THE 20S. MAINLY DRY FOR THOSE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL
PLANS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 807 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
BIGGEST TREND WE'RE SEEING WITH MODELS THIS EVENING IS SHOWING
THE DRY AIR EATING UP OUR PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT. WE'LL
BE STARTING TO CUT BACK ON POPS HERE SHORTLY OUTSIDE OF THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI.
OUTSIDE OF OUR FAR NORTHERN CWA, IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORCING WILL
NOT BE AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH SATURATION OF THE LOW
LEVELS TO OCCUR TO ALLOW HYDROMETEORS TO REACH THE GROUND.
ANOTHER CHANGE WE'LL BE MAKING IS TO CUT BACK ON THE FREEZING
PRECIP MENTION FURTHER. ALTHOUGH THE WARM NOSE STILL EXISTS WITH
A MAX TEMPERATURE ABOVE FREEZING, THE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES IN
THIS WARM NOSE ARE BELOW FREEZING. SO AS PRECIP BEGINS TO FALL
INTO THE WARM NOSE AND EVAPORATE, IT WILL COOL THE WARM NOSE
DOWN BELOW FREEZING, SO ANY PRECIP THAT CAN SURVIVE THE DRY AIR
TO REACH THE GROUND WILL GET THERE AS SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
THE POWERHOUSE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN
CONUS YESTERDAY HAS QUICKLY TRANSLATED EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES.
A SHORT-LIVED BLAST OF SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM, THOUGH TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED ABOVE ZERO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS SHIFTS TO A VORT MAX RACING ACROSS
THE WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. A MATURE
MID-LEVEL CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE AND WILL SEND A
~980S MB SURFACE LOW FROM SASKATCHEWAN THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO ONTARIO OVER THE NEXT 24-HOURS. OUR PORTION OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL BE POSITIONED IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE LOW. AS SUCH, A NOTABLE MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WILL
ADVECT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
AND WILL PLAY A ROLE IN OUR P-TYPE FORECAST TONIGHT. WE CAN
ALREADY SEE THIS PLAYING OUT, AS SURFACE WINDS ARE INCREASING
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN MN. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD AND SHOULD YIELD NON-DIURNAL HIGHS BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S SOUTH OF I-94 AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE
NORTH OF I-94.
REGIONAL RADAR CAPTURES THE INITIAL BATCH OF WARM ADVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION MOVING EAST INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN. KMPX
RADAR IMAGERY DISPLAYS RADAR ECHOES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA,
THOUGH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THAT NO PRECIPITATION IS
REACHING THE SURFACE OWING TO A LARGE DRY WEDGE SAMPLED ON THE
12Z MPX RAOB. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY SEE SOME VERY LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
NORTH OF A LINE FROM STC TO GDB. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM'S TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A SATURATED
PROFILE ABOVE 7-8K FEET AND A WARM NOSE (ABOVE FREEZING) AROUND
5K FEET, ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT OMEGA FORCING THROUGH THE COLUMN.
AS A RESULT, WE ARE LOOKING AT A SCENARIO WHERE MANY LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY OBSERVE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN PRIOR
TO A TRANSITION TO SLEET/SNOW AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE MINOR, SAY A HALF
INCH TO AN INCH NORTH OF I-94, HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SNOW
AND MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY CREATE SLICK TRAVEL AREAWIDE
OVERNIGHT. THE NARROW BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
EXIT THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. COLD AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SATURDAY AND WILL SEND MORNING LOWS BACK BELOW ZERO ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND WESTERN WI BY SUNDAY MORNING.
QUIET AND COLD TO OPEN SUNDAY, THOUGH CHANGES WILL BE UNDERWAY
ALOFT. A LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS, WITH MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING IN RESPONSE. THE
NEXT PERIOD TO WATCH FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY MONDAY, AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION.
AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED, THERE IS SOME VARIANCE IN THE GUIDANCE WITH
HOW WIDESPREAD THE PRECIPITATION FOOTPRINT WILL BE, THOUGH WOULD
TEND TO FAVOR WETTER SOLUTIONS THAT MATCH THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR AN
UPGLIDE DRIVEN BAND OF PRECIPITATION. ONCE AGAIN, THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE A MUST WATCH AND IT'S LIKELY THERE WOULD BE SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION ON THE TABLE. NEW NBM POPS ARE BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT
AND WOULD LOOK AT THIS AS A POSSIBLE TARGET FOR INCREASING POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARMER AIR FOLLOWS TO OPEN THE WORK WEEK, WITH
THE LATEST NBM ADVERTISING HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A STEP
BACK ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD FRONT. THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING CHRISTMAS DAY, CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY MILD
AS ENSEMBLES ADVERTISE A +15C TO +20C 850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALY
BUILDING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. OUR
AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE DISPLAYS THURSDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY) AS THE
WARMEST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO AROUND 40 IN
THE TWIN CITIES METRO AND ACROSS CENTRAL MN. TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN. THE STATE OF THE REMNANT
SNOWPACK (AND HOW IT MAY MODIFY THE ANOMALOUS AIR MASS) WILL BE THE
KEY IN DIAGNOSING JUST HOW WARM IT GETS NEXT WEEK. NONETHELESS, IT
WILL BE MILD AND MOSTLY DRY, WITH ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
THE DRYING TREND FOR PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT NOTED WITH THE 00Z
TAFS CONTINUES WITH THE 06Z TAFS AND HAVE NOW REMOVED ANY SNOW
MENTION FROM MSP AND EAU AS WELL. IF ANY PRECIP DOES MAKE IT TO
THE GROUND, IT WILL BE SNOW. FRONTAL TIMING HAS NOT CHANGED AT
ALL, WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES. ONE CONCERN TO CONTINUE TO WATCH IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN MVFR STRATOCU FIELD. FOR NOW, KEPT IT AS FEW OR
SCT, BUT YOU CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN MVFR CIG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT STC/MSP/RNH/EAU.
KMSP...SNOW CHANCES ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING, BUT CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AT 10 OR 11Z
WITH THE FROPA.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SW BECOMING SE 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHANCE MVFR/SN EARLY. WIND SE 10-15 KTS.
TUE...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
UPDATE...MPG
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...MPG
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