905
FXUS63 KMPX 200819
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
219 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN WITH UNDER HALF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- WARMER AND DRIER AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
WARM AIR ADVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WITH DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE MUCH OF THIS
PRECIPITATION IS NOT REACHING THE SURFACE. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT HAS BEEN REPORTED IS FARTHER NORTH AND
IN THE COLDER AIR THUS IT IS HAS BEEN MOSTLY SNOW. THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW ISOLATED REPORTS FOR SOME WINTRY MIX WITH UP METARS,
BUT SNOW REMAINS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS MORNING. AS
A LOW CONTINUES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL SHIFT EAST AS WELL. THIS WILL
MOVE THE SNOW CHANCES INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY MID MORNING
AND OUT ENTIRELY BY LATE MORNING. A RETURN TO COLD AIR ADVECTION
FOLLOWS THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW TO OUR NORTH. HOW MUCH DIURNAL
HEATING AND THE CAA CANCEL EACH OTHER OUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
CLOUD COVER EVOLVES TODAY. THE CLOUDIER WE ARE THE COLDER WE GET
DURING THE DAY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD, BUT LIGHT WINDS
SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
SUNDAY STARTS COLD, BUT WITH WINDS SHIFTING SOUTH AGAIN AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
20S (30S ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE) DURING THE DAY. A BUILDING
RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR THIS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS TO
CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AND
PROVIDE FOR OUR NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE. AS THIS DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE A STRONGLY FORCED SYSTEM QPF LOOKS TO REMAIN LIGHT.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS FAVOR WISCONSIN FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT FARTHER EAST OVER
MINNESOTA. SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THIS MORNING, WITH WAA
DRIVEN PRECIPITATION, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CONCERN. WARM
NOSES ARE PRESENT IN MANY FORECAST SOUNDINGS, ALTHOUGH SNOW
REMAINS FAVORED. IF THE WARM NOSE IS A LITTLE WARMER THAN
EXPECTED THOUGH FREEZING RAIN COULD BE A CONCERN.
THE STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK IS WARM AND DRY. BY CHRISTMAS
DAY 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 20 DEGREES C WILL HAVE US WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. HOW WARM WE GET WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS
LEFT TO MODIFY THE AIRMASS. CURRENT NBM FORECAST VALUES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S ARE MODELING THE SNOWPACK REMAINING, BUT IF
THE SNOWPACK DID MELT TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 50 WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
THE DRYING TREND FOR PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT NOTED WITH THE 00Z
TAFS CONTINUES WITH THE 06Z TAFS AND HAVE NOW REMOVED ANY SNOW
MENTION FROM MSP AND EAU AS WELL. IF ANY PRECIP DOES MAKE IT TO
THE GROUND, IT WILL BE SNOW. FRONTAL TIMING HAS NOT CHANGED AT
ALL, WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY, ALONG WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES. ONE CONCERN TO CONTINUE TO WATCH IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN MVFR STRATOCU FIELD. FOR NOW, KEPT IT AS FEW OR
SCT, BUT YOU CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN MVFR CIG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT STC/MSP/RNH/EAU.
KMSP...SNOW CHANCES ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING, BUT CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AT 10 OR 11Z
WITH THE FROPA.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SW BECOMING SE 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHANCE MVFR/SN EARLY. WIND SE 10-15 KTS.
TUE...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...MPG
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