603
FXUS63 KMPX 202134
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
334 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MINOR ICE OR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAK DISTURBANCES WITH LOW
PREDICTABILITY ARE IN STORE AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THIS MORNING AND RESULTED IN A
PERIOD OF STRONG WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
SEVERAL STATIONS IN THE METRO GUSTED TO AROUND 52 MPH, WITH
MANY OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 45-50 MPH RANGE.
WINDS HAVE SINCE SUBSIDED SOME SINCE, BUT WILL WILL REMAIN
GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING WINDS TO
DECOUPLE AND TEMPERATURES TO DROP WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW BRINGING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD AGAIN. IN FACT, HIGHS MAY
APPROACH 40 IN SOUTHWESTERN MN WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A DWINDLING SNOWPACK. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE REACHES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ON THE 300K SURFACE, WHICH IS AROUND 600 MB AND THE LOWER END OF
THE EXPECTED DGZ LAYER, INCREASES SUNDAY EVENING. THE TRANSIENT
NATURE OF THE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A SINGLE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION TRACKING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE
GFS IS PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH ITS ISENTROPIC LIFT, HENCE ITS
HIGHER QPF. THE OTHER MODELS, INCLUDING AI MODELS, ARE LIGHTER
WHICH IS THE PREFERRED ROUTE. SOME QUESTIONS OF BOUNDARY LAYER
SATURATION AND THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN. THE 18Z RRFS
ILLUSTRATES WELL HOW P-TYPE WILL CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM WEST
TO EAST. SURFACE TEMPS COULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
SOUTHWESTERN MN, LEADING TO PRIMARILY RAIN, WITH SOME RISK OF
FREEZING RAIN WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND WETBULB TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. AS THE BAND SHIFTS EAST INTO COLDER
AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN, TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE
QUITE CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HERE, FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WOULD BE AN ISSUE. BY THE TIME THE BAND REACHES WESTERN
WI, THE ENTIRE COLUMN SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND RESULT IN
ALL SNOW. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MN, WHEREAS IT COULD REACH 0.1-0.15 INCHES IN WI. IT
SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT, BUT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FALLING IN ADVANCE OF A MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE CAN
BE PROBLEMATIC.
A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL LEAD TO MILD AND EVEN WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. DESPITE 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES OF
AROUND +20C ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON CHRISTMAS DAY, LINGERING
SNOW PACK WILL MODERATE HOW MUCH WE CAN WARM. IF WE CAN CHIP
AWAY AT IT EARLIER IN THE WEEK, HIGHS MAY TREND UP OVER TIME.
IN SOUTHWESTERN MN WHERE THE SNOWPACK IS ALREADY MEAGER, HIGHS
AT LEAST IN THE LOW 50S APPEAR PROBABLE. IF YOU'RE HEADING TO
MISSOURI OR SOUTH, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S. DOZENS OF RECORD
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE BROKEN SOUTH OF HERE.
GENERALLY, THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LOT OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS STEMMING FROM THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
ON THE WEST COAST. THESE HAVE LITTLE PREDICTABILITY IN THE
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGES, SO WHILE THE FORECAST MAY BE DRY NOW,
CHANCES COULD CROP UP ONCE THESE BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND OUR EARLY MORNING FRONTAL PASSAGE
HAS PRODUCED SOME IMPRESSIVE GUSTS OF 30-40KTS. THIS HAS LED TO
SOME BLSN AND MINOR VIS REDUCTIONS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
TREND DOWN THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST BEFORE
ULTIMATELY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH BY MID
MORNING.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/CHC IFR SN/ZR EARLY. WIND S 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DYE
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