184
FXUS63 KMPX 210501
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1101 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MINOR ICE OR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND WEAK DISTURBANCES WITH LOW
PREDICTABILITY ARE IN STORE AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THIS MORNING AND RESULTED IN A
PERIOD OF STRONG WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL MN.
SEVERAL STATIONS IN THE METRO GUSTED TO AROUND 52 MPH, WITH MANY
OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 45-50 MPH RANGE. WINDS
HAVE SINCE SUBSIDED SOME SINCE, BUT WILL WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO
THE EARLY EVENING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE AND
TEMPERATURES TO DROP WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF ZERO FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW BRINGING WARMER AIR NORTHWARD AGAIN. IN FACT, HIGHS MAY
APPROACH 40 IN SOUTHWESTERN MN WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A DWINDLING SNOWPACK. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE REACHES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
ON THE 300K SURFACE, WHICH IS AROUND 600 MB AND THE LOWER END
OF THE EXPECTED DGZ LAYER, INCREASES SUNDAY EVENING. THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A SINGLE
BAND OF PRECIPITATION TRACKING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THE GFS IS PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH ITS ISENTROPIC LIFT,
HENCE ITS HIGHER QPF. THE OTHER MODELS, INCLUDING AI MODELS,
ARE LIGHTER WHICH IS THE PREFERRED ROUTE. SOME QUESTIONS OF
BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION AND THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN. THE 18Z
RRFS ILLUSTRATES WELL HOW P-TYPE WILL CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. SURFACE TEMPS COULD BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING IN
SOUTHWESTERN MN, LEADING TO PRIMARILY RAIN, WITH SOME RISK OF
FREEZING RAIN WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND WETBULB TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. AS THE BAND SHIFTS EAST INTO COLDER
AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MN, TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE
QUITE CLOSE TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. HERE, FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET WOULD BE AN ISSUE. BY THE TIME THE BAND REACHES WESTERN
WI, THE ENTIRE COLUMN SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AND RESULT IN
ALL SNOW. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MN, WHEREAS IT COULD REACH 0.1-0.15 INCHES IN WI. IT
SHOULD NOT BE A PARTICULARLY HIGH IMPACT EVENT, BUT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FALLING IN ADVANCE OF A MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE CAN
BE PROBLEMATIC.
A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL LEAD TO MILD AND EVEN WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. DESPITE 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES OF
AROUND +20C ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON CHRISTMAS DAY, LINGERING
SNOW PACK WILL MODERATE HOW MUCH WE CAN WARM. IF WE CAN CHIP
AWAY AT IT EARLIER IN THE WEEK, HIGHS MAY TREND UP OVER TIME. IN
SOUTHWESTERN MN WHERE THE SNOWPACK IS ALREADY MEAGER, HIGHS AT
LEAST IN THE LOW 50S APPEAR PROBABLE. IF YOU'RE HEADING TO
MISSOURI OR SOUTH, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S. DOZENS OF RECORD
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE BROKEN SOUTH OF HERE.
GENERALLY, THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LOT OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS STEMMING FROM THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
ON THE WEST COAST. THESE HAVE LITTLE PREDICTABILITY IN THE
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGES, SO WHILE THE FORECAST MAY BE DRY NOW,
CHANCES COULD CROP UP ONCE THESE BECOME BETTER RESOLVED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A WEAK WAVE OVER THE
DAKOTAS DRIFTING ACROSS MN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THROUGH LATE
MORNING, BRINGING A SWATH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
ONCE PAST THAT, HIGH CIRRUS WILL STEADILY FILTER IN FROM THE
WEST BUT BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING, WITH SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FREEZING RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI
LATE SUNDAY EVENING. HAVE STARTED TO ADVERTISE THIS POTENTIAL
VIA PROB30S AT THE TAIL END OF THE TAFS, BUT THE 12Z TAF SET
SHOULD HAVE THIS BETTER DEFINED SINCE THE PRECIP TIMING EXTENDS
BEYOND 06Z. QUICKLY-DIMINISHING NW WINDS AT INITIALIZATION WILL
GO LIGHT/VARIABLE FOR A SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OVERNIGHT. WINDS
THEN PICK UP FROM THE S LATE SUNDAY MORNING, HITTING NEAR 10KTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN CHANCES NUDGE UP JUST ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION
OF THE POSSIBILITY OF -FZRASN DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING HOURS. A DUSTING OF SNOW AND/OR 0.01" OF ICING
IS POSSIBLE FROM THESE PASSING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS. PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THE START OF THE MONDAY
MORNING PUSH.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/CHC IFR SN/ZR EARLY. WIND S 5-10KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC
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