896
FXUS63 KMPX 212050
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
250 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF WINTRY MIX LATE THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MINOR ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
- MILD TEMPERATURES AND WEAK DISTURBANCES WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY
ARE IN STORE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
ASIDE FROM SOME CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON, IT'S
BEEN A PLEASANT DAY WITH DECENT WARMING - ESPECIALLY IN NEARLY
SNOW-FREE AREAS. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S IN
WISCONSIN TO LOWER 40S ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF WARMING TO GO. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
INCREASING THIS EVENING AND A BAND OF ISENTROPICALLY-FORCED
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN BREAKING OUT ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA
AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN TRACK EAST OVERNIGHT TO WISCONSIN EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE
DRY INITIALLY AND WARM. AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AND THE
BAND BECOMES HEALTHIER, PRECIPITATION WILL COOL THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE AND SHOULD REACH THE GROUND AT LEAST BRIEFLY BEFORE
ENDING. MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MINNESOTA
(EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE SURFACE TEMPS MAY REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING). HOWEVER, WETBULB TEMPERATURES ALOFT PER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO HINT AT SLEET. THEREFORE, CONTINUING
WITH CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. UNLESS THE BAND
BECOMES QUITE HEALTHY, WHICH IS A LOW END PROBABILITY, THEN SOME
SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN WISCONSIN, THERMAL PROFILES ARE A BIT
COOLER SO SNOW CHANCES ARE HIGHER. SOME SLEET MAY ALSO
MIX IN IF WETBULB TEMPS HOVER NEAR FREEZING, WHICH HAS BEEN THE
TREND TODAY. A FEW MODELS ASIDE, QPF LOOKS REALLY LIGHT. PERHAPS
AROUND A TENTH IN WISCONSIN AS SNOW, BUT LESS THAN 0.05" IN
MINNESOTA AS SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. SUCH LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE NOT
LIKELY TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS, AND IF THE BAND REMAINS
WEAK, IT MAY BE HARD TO GET MUCH PRECIPITATION DOWN TO THE
SURFACE LEVEL AT ALL. ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. DIDN'T FEEL THIS
EVENT RISES TO THE LEVEL OF AN ADVISORY YET WITH CONFIDENCE OF
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS BEING LOW. THAT MAY CHANGE THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT THOUGH WITH EVOLVING TRENDS.
A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WILL LEAD TO MILD AND EVEN WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK. DESPITE 850 MB TEMP
ANOMALIES OF AROUND +20C ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON CHRISTMAS
DAY, LINGERING SNOW PACK WILL MODERATE HOW MUCH WE CAN WARM.
FURTHER, THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT RESULTS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS FOG WHICH WOULD FURTHER
REDUCE THE CHANCE TO WARM SUBSTANTIALLY. THAT MAY BE A
DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN WHERE A LACK OF SNOW
COMBINED WITH DEEPER MIXING AND SUNSHINE MAY BRING LOW 50S FOR
HIGHS.
GENERALLY, THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A LOT OF WEAK DISTURBANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS STEMMING FROM THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
ON THE WEST COAST. THESE HAVE LITTLE PREDICTABILITY IN THE
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGES. HOWEVER, A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE COULD
EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES CHRISTMAS DAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
DEGREE OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY MEAN LOW SNOW CHANCES AND
EITHER RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AS THE PREFERRED P-TYPE DEPENDING
ON SURFACE TEMP. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES, COOLER AIR WILL SPILL IN
BEHIND IT ALONG WITH A THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR AND QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
SUSTAINING BETWEEN 5-10KTS. TONIGHT, VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND
SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITHIN A WING OF MID-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION. IT'S THIS REGIME THAT WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW BAND OF MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE 18Z TAFS HAVE BEEN
"UPGRADED" FROM PROB30S TO TEMPOS/PREVAILING GROUPS WHERE
CONFIDENCE LEVEL WAS THE HIGHEST IN IMPACTS FROM THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION, HAVE TRIED TO BETTER DEFINE P-TYPE
IN WHAT IS A RATHER TRICKY THERMAL FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWEST IN HOW FAR WEST PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP, SO OPTED TO
KEEP THE MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AS A PROB30 AT AXN/RWF, THOUGH
IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT HI-RES GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE
BULLISH AND IT LOOKS LIKE AN UPGRADE TO AT LEAST A TEMPO IS
LIKELY IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. TEMPO'S FOR FREEZING RAIN &
SLEET AT STC/MKT/MSP, WHERE THE THERMAL PROFILE IS LIKELY GOING
TO BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. FINALLY, HAVE PREVAILED FREEZING RAIN &
SNOW (RNH) AND ALL SNOW (EAU) AS BOTH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION AND COLDEST MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES RESIDE OVER
WESTERN WI. THE BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT NORTH OF
ALL TERMINALS BY ~12/13Z. A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE
AND UP TO A HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE (ICE
FAVORING THE MN TERMINALS/SNOW FAVORING THE WI TERMINALS).
FINALLY, IT LOOKS LIKE A MARGINAL LLWS SCENARIO WILL SETUP AS
MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT. LLWS WAS
INCLUDED AT RWF & MKT.
KMSP...QUIET IN THE NEAR TERM, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND VFR
CONDITIONS. VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF A ROUND OF
MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION. BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS
TO ADJUST THE P-TYPE FROM FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TO FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET. SIMPLY PUT, IT LOOKS TO BE TOO WARM IN THE
LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A COMPLETE
TRANSITION TO SNOW AT MSP. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST A SLIGHT DELAY
IN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, SO HAVE THIS REFLECTED WITH A
TEMPO FROM 8-11Z. A THIN GLAZE OF ICE AND MINOR SLUSHY SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ENDING NEAR THE START OF THE
MORNING PUSH. THE REST OF TOMORROW WILL BE QUIET WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...STRUS
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