737
FXUS63 KMPX 060816
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
216 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE ICING POTENTIAL TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES
FOR IMPACTFUL ICE ACCUMULATION NOW GENERALLY ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA & WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
- GENERALLY A GLAZE TO 0.1" OF ICE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO THE TWIN CITIES METRO. GREATER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.1-0.25" POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
- ICING CONDITIONS BEGIN AFTER 7-8 PM, WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS
CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE.
- DENSE FOG & FREEZING FOG DEVELOPS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, WITH SOME SLICK SPOTS POSSIBLE. DENSE FOG REDEVELOPS
TOMORROW NIGHT.
- LARGE WINTER STORM STILL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE GREATER
MIDWEST FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH TRENDS OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOW SOUTH EAST OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
COMPLICATED FORECAST UNFOLDING TONIGHT WITH DENSE FOG &
POTENTIAL ICING CONDITIONS AS A WARM FRONT & STRONG ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. DETERMINISTIC & AI
SOLUTIONS STILL REMAIN WIDELY SPREAD ON THE LOCATION & SEVERITY
OF THE ICING THIS EVENING & TONIGHT, BUT TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE GENERALLY REDUCED THE ICING POTENTIAL ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA & MOST OF WESTERN WISCONSIN, BUT INCREASED IT ALONG &
SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR IN WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THE MAIN REASON FOR THE DECREASED ICING POTENTIAL IS THAT
CURRENT TEMPERATURES & DEWPOINTS ARE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL & SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, WHERE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL TONIGHT. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS
ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE GENERAL SOUTHERN SHIFT IN THE PRECIPITATION
LOCATION OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
VIRGA ECHOES CURRENTLY ONLY EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH AS THE US 212
CORRIDOR & LATITUDE OF THE SOUTHERN TWIN CITIES METRO.
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES ARE DEW POINTS ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN (& CENTRAL MINNESOTA, BUT
PRECIPITATION IS LESS LIKELY THERE), MEANING PRECIPITATION COULD
STILL FALL AS FREEZING RAIN ONCE IT BEGINS TO REACH THE SURFACE
LATER THIS EVENING.
THE REASON WE'RE DEALING WITH POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN TO BEGIN
WITH IS DUE TO A STRONG & DEEP WARM LAYER CENTERED AROUND 850
MB, WITH STRONG DIFFERENTIAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WARMING
TEMPERATURES TO 6-7 C. MEANWHILE A WELL-DEFINED DEFORMATION BAND
OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS TONIGHT INTO HE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
RESULTING IN ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION GENERATED BY THAT BAND
MELTING BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE. SO THERE IS STILL HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL SEE RAIN GENERALLY ALONG & SOUTH OF US
212/I-94, WITH WHETHER SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 31-32, OR 33-34
DECIDING WHAT AMOUNT OF ICING IMPACTS WE SEE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. WE HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GENERAL SOUTHWARD
SHIFT OF THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, WHILE STILL HOLDING ON THE
THE ADVISORY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 & THE TWIN CITIES AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WHILE CENTRAL MINNESOTA
& NORTHWEST WISCONSIN PROBABLY WON'T SEE MUCH IN TERMS OF
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION, LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE & FREEZING
FOG OVERNIGHT COULD STILL LEAD TO SLICK UNTREATED ROADS &
SURFACES INTO TOMORROW MORNING. IN TERMS OF TIMING, THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TONIGHT BETWEEN 7-10 PM, BECOMING HEAVIEST
& MOST-WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA & WEST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT, & THEN TAPERING OFF ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW. IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THE
WORST ICING CONDITIONS (WHERE IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE) ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE TOMORROW, WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW AS THE SUN
RISES.
IN TERMS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FOG, THE WARM ADVECTION & ABOVE-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES & DEW POINTS ARE RESULTING IN MELTING OF
THE SNOWPACK AS THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. ALL OF THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, COUPLED WITH LIGHT
WINDS, CREATE PRIME FOG CONDITIONS ON TOP OF THE DEEP SNOWPACK -
WITH THESE CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
AS WELL. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS
WE SEE A DRIER WIND SHIFT & SOME SUN, BUT EXPECT TO HAVE VERY
LOW VISIBILITY FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, AS WELL AS
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS & SURFACES IN AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING.
LOOKING AHEAD, TEMEPRATURES CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND INTO
THURSDAY WITH THAWING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING
EXPECTED. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FRIDAY & INTO THE WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A LARGE SYSTEM FORECASTS TO DEVELOP & IMPACT PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. WE'RE STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT &
THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT TRENDS OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR
IMPACTFUL SNOW SOUTH & EAST OF OUR ARE INTO EASTERN IOWA &
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. STILL, ITS A SYSTEM TO KEEP OUR FOCUS ON
ONCE WE FINISH UP WITH OUR WINTRY WEATHER TONIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 136 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
TRICKY TAF FORECAST WITH EVOLVING SWATH OF MOSTLY FZDZ/FZRA WITH
EMBEDDED RA MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN-EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.
CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY DOWN INTO IFR RANGE THOUGH THERE ARE
POCKETS OF VFR WITH LOWER FEW/SCT COVERAGE. BY DAYBREAK, THE
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AND PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE THE PRECIP SWATH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE GOING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, WHILE WINDS SWING TO NW AND
INCREASE TO 5-10KTS DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING PRECIP,
WINDS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH LOOKS TO
RESULT IN VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO MVFR AT BEST, AND IFR-OR-
LOWER OTHERWISE. HAVE GONE THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE AND HALTED
CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE BUT LOWER VISIBILITIES FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
KMSP...A VARIETY OF P-TYPES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, MAINLY AS -RA BUT ALSO SOME MIXTURE OF
-FZDZ/-FZRA. THE POTENTIAL FOR -SN IS LOW BUT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT. SOME LIGHT ICING IS POSSIBLE FOR UNTREATED SURFACES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO CHANGE
OVER TO ALL -RA PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND CONTINUE INTO LATE
MORNING. AIR TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 32 DEGREES,
BUT GOING DOWN TO 31 BEFORE SUNRISE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES,
ESPECIALLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. ONLY PROBLEM GOING INTO
THIS EVENING IS A ROUND OF FOG WHICH COULD TURN INTO FREEZING
FOG WITH DEPOSITION ONTO SURFACES. LATER TAFS WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER HONE IN ON THAT POSSIBILITY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MVFR, SLIGHT CHC IFR/-SN. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MVFR, CHC IFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-CHISAGO-
DOUGLAS-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-
STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ANOKA-CARVER-
CHIPPEWA-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-KANDIYOHI-LE SUEUR-
MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-
SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-SWIFT-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CHISAGO.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
POLK-RUSK.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR DUNN-EAU
CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-ST. CROIX.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-POLK-RUSK.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...JPC
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