079
FXUS63 KMPX 060959
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
359 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING,
BUT UNTREATED SURFACES WILL REMAIN SLICK INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW WITH LOW 40S
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
- SNOWFALL CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND HAVE DECREASED AS THE SYSTEM
HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST, THOUGH ADDITIONAL WOBBLES IN THE
TRACK ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
A COMPACT AREA OF MODERATE RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE A DEGREE OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING WITH
SURFACE OBS FLIPPING BETWEEN RAIN AND UNKNOWN PRECIP WITH THE
OCCASIONAL SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW REPORT. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS
JUST GETTING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY 26-32 DEGREES. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME LOCALES FORECAST TO
APPROACH 0.25". FURTHER WEST WHERE PRECIP HAS ENDED, FOG AND
FREEZING FOG CONTINUES. VISIBILITIES ARE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 MILES
WITH A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS FALLING BELOW A HALF MILE AT TIMES.
THERE IS DENSE FOG JUST TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA
TO MILLE LACS, WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE.
EVEN THOUGH FOG IS NOT REDUCING VISIBILITIES QUITE AS MUCH AS
FORECASTED, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE
IN COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP CLEAR OUT ANY
REMAINING FOG, BUT TODAY WILL STILL BE A DREARY DAY WITH
OVERCAST SKIES. TOMORROW WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE'VE HAD IN
NEARLY TWO WEEKS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S
WITH SUN FINALLY RETURNING. I EXPECT WE'LL LOSE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SNOWPACK BETWEEN TODAY'S RAIN AND TOMORROW'S WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH CAA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE
OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPER 500MB TROUGH THAT WILL GENERATE A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WITH THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR
AREA. A SECOND, STRONGER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO TAKE AIM AT THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TO START THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THE IMPACTS THAT MAY BE FELT ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS QPF THAN 24
HOURS AGO, AS THE GENERAL TRACK HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST. OUR
WISCONSIN COUNTIES MAY STILL SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW, BUT THE
THREAT FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM HAS DIMINISHED. OF COURSE,
ADDITIONAL WOBBLES IN THE TRACK ARE EXPECTED, BUT FOR NOW, IT'S
LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND. A RETURN TO NORMAL JANUARY
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL BE SHORT-LIVED SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT AT 30S AND 40S ARRIVES FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 136 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
TRICKY TAF FORECAST WITH EVOLVING SWATH OF MOSTLY FZDZ/FZRA WITH
EMBEDDED RA MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN-EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.
CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY DOWN INTO IFR RANGE THOUGH THERE ARE
POCKETS OF VFR WITH LOWER FEW/SCT COVERAGE. BY DAYBREAK, THE
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AND PERSIST INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE THE PRECIP SWATH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE GOING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, WHILE WINDS SWING TO NW AND
INCREASE TO 5-10KTS DURING THE DAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING PRECIP,
WINDS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH LOOKS TO
RESULT IN VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO MVFR AT BEST, AND IFR-OR-
LOWER OTHERWISE. HAVE GONE THE CONSERVATIVE ROUTE AND HALTED
CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE BUT LOWER VISIBILITIES FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
KMSP...A VARIETY OF P-TYPES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, MAINLY AS -RA BUT ALSO SOME MIXTURE OF
-FZDZ/-FZRA. THE POTENTIAL FOR -SN IS LOW BUT CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT. SOME LIGHT ICING IS POSSIBLE FOR UNTREATED SURFACES
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO CHANGE
OVER TO ALL -RA PRIOR TO SUNRISE AND CONTINUE INTO LATE
MORNING. AIR TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 32 DEGREES,
BUT GOING DOWN TO 31 BEFORE SUNRISE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES,
ESPECIALLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. ONLY PROBLEM GOING INTO
THIS EVENING IS A ROUND OF FOG WHICH COULD TURN INTO FREEZING
FOG WITH DEPOSITION ONTO SURFACES. LATER TAFS WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER HONE IN ON THAT POSSIBILITY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MVFR, SLIGHT CHC IFR/-SN. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MVFR, CHC IFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-CHISAGO-
DOUGLAS-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-
STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-POPE-RENVILLE-STEARNS-SWIFT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ANOKA-CARVER-
CHISAGO-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-MCLEOD-NICOLLET-
RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
POLK-RUSK.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...JPC
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