960
FXUS63 KMPX 061243
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
643 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING,
BUT UNTREATED SURFACES WILL REMAIN SLICK INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW WITH LOW 40S
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
- SNOWFALL CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND HAVE DECREASED AS THE SYSTEM
HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST, THOUGH ADDITIONAL WOBBLES IN THE
TRACK ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
A COMPACT AREA OF MODERATE RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE A DEGREE OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING WITH
SURFACE OBS FLIPPING BETWEEN RAIN AND UNKNOWN PRECIP WITH THE
OCCASIONAL SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW REPORT. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS
JUST GETTING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY 26-32 DEGREES. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME LOCALES FORECAST TO
APPROACH 0.25". FURTHER WEST WHERE PRECIP HAS ENDED, FOG AND
FREEZING FOG CONTINUES. VISIBILITIES ARE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 MILES
WITH A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS FALLING BELOW A HALF MILE AT TIMES.
THERE IS DENSE FOG JUST TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA
TO MILLE LACS, WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE.
EVEN THOUGH FOG IS NOT REDUCING VISIBILITIES QUITE AS MUCH AS
FORECASTED, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE
IN COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP CLEAR OUT ANY
REMAINING FOG, BUT TODAY WILL STILL BE A DREARY DAY WITH
OVERCAST SKIES. TOMORROW WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE'VE HAD IN
NEARLY TWO WEEKS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S
WITH SUN FINALLY RETURNING. I EXPECT WE'LL LOSE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SNOWPACK BETWEEN TODAY'S RAIN AND TOMORROW'S WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH CAA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE
OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPER 500MB TROUGH THAT WILL GENERATE A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WITH THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR
AREA. A SECOND, STRONGER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO TAKE AIM AT THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TO START THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THE IMPACTS THAT MAY BE FELT ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS QPF THAN 24
HOURS AGO, AS THE GENERAL TRACK HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST. OUR
WISCONSIN COUNTIES MAY STILL SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW, BUT THE
THREAT FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM HAS DIMINISHED. OF COURSE,
ADDITIONAL WOBBLES IN THE TRACK ARE EXPECTED, BUT FOR NOW, IT'S
LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND. A RETURN TO NORMAL JANUARY
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL BE SHORT-LIVED SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT AT 30S AND 40S ARRIVES FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 607 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
PRECIP SWATH (MIXTURE OF RA/FZRA) HAS PUSHED INTO WESTERN WI,
THUS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RUN WITH DRY TAFS ON THE MN SIDE. THE
WINTRY PRECIP ON THE WI SIDE WILL LAST ANOTHER FEW HOURS BEFORE
ABATING. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN IFR RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A SLOW RISE INTO
MVFR THEN VFR RANGE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER,
WITH WINDS DROPPING TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING STEADY TO RISING TONIGHT, ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
KMSP...PRECIP HAS ALREADY ENDED AT MSP, WITH NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS DURATION. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN IN IFR LEVELS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON WITH
VISIBILITIES SLOWLY IMPROVING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON-EVENING PUSH
TODAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING IS THEN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
WINDS EARLY ON WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE AND
REMAIN AS SUCH THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN WINDS BACK TO
SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
APPROACHING SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT CHANCES ARE BETTER AT
THE SATELLITE MAC AIRPORTS THAN MSP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MVFR, SLIGHT CHC IFR/-SN. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MVFR, CHC IFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-CHISAGO-
DOUGLAS-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-POPE-
STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ANOKA-CARVER-
CHISAGO-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-MCLEOD-NICOLLET-
RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
POLK-RUSK.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...JPC
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