595
FXUS63 KMPX 061802
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1202 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING,
BUT UNTREATED SURFACES WILL REMAIN SLICK INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW WITH LOW 40S
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
- SNOWFALL CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND HAVE DECREASED AS THE SYSTEM
HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST, THOUGH ADDITIONAL WOBBLES IN THE
TRACK ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
A COMPACT AREA OF MODERATE RAIN IS MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE A DEGREE OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING WITH
SURFACE OBS FLIPPING BETWEEN RAIN AND UNKNOWN PRECIP WITH THE
OCCASIONAL SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW REPORT. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS
JUST GETTING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY 26-32 DEGREES. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME LOCALES FORECAST TO
APPROACH 0.25". FURTHER WEST WHERE PRECIP HAS ENDED, FOG AND
FREEZING FOG CONTINUES. VISIBILITIES ARE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 MILES
WITH A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS FALLING BELOW A HALF MILE AT TIMES.
THERE IS DENSE FOG JUST TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM ALEXANDRIA
TO MILLE LACS, WHERE VISIBILITIES ARE DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE.
EVEN THOUGH FOG IS NOT REDUCING VISIBILITIES QUITE AS MUCH AS
FORECASTED, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN PLACE
IN COORDINATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP CLEAR OUT ANY
REMAINING FOG, BUT TODAY WILL STILL BE A DREARY DAY WITH
OVERCAST SKIES. TOMORROW WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WE'VE HAD IN
NEARLY TWO WEEKS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S
WITH SUN FINALLY RETURNING. I EXPECT WE'LL LOSE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SNOWPACK BETWEEN TODAY'S RAIN AND TOMORROW'S WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH CAA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE
OUT AHEAD OF A DEEPER 500MB TROUGH THAT WILL GENERATE A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WITH THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR
AREA. A SECOND, STRONGER SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO TAKE AIM AT THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TO START THE WEEKEND, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON THE IMPACTS THAT MAY BE FELT ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS QPF THAN 24
HOURS AGO, AS THE GENERAL TRACK HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST. OUR
WISCONSIN COUNTIES MAY STILL SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW, BUT THE
THREAT FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM HAS DIMINISHED. OF COURSE,
ADDITIONAL WOBBLES IN THE TRACK ARE EXPECTED, BUT FOR NOW, IT'S
LOOKING LIKE A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WEEKEND. A RETURN TO NORMAL JANUARY
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S WILL BE SHORT-LIVED SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT AT 30S AND 40S ARRIVES FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS DONE, THOUGH THE BACK EDGE OF
OUR RAIN SHIELD OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLEARING EAU OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE'S ALSO A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WILL MAKE IT INTO WESTERN
MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR BETWEEN THE PRECIP
GENERATING CLOUDS AND STRATUS THAT MAY LIMIT ANY OF THIS TO
REACHING THE GROUND, BUT DID ADD BRIEF TEMPO PRECIP GROUPS TO
AXN/RWF TO HANDLE THAT THREAT. AS FOR CLOUDS/STRATUS, NORTHWEST
WINDS WE HAVE NOW WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL LIMIT HOW
FAR EAST THE CLEARING MAKES IT IN MN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THE CLEARING WILL MAKE IT THROUGH RWF AND AXN, BUT NOT ANY OF
OUR OTHER AIRPORTS. FOR EASTERN MN AND WI, WHERE WE NOW HAVE A
WATER LOGGED SNOWPACK, THIS STRATUS WILL BECOME A DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE QUITE AS DOOM AND GLOOM AS WHAT
THE HRRR HAS. LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP
TO FINALLY CLEAR THIS STRATUS OUT, WITH THIS PERIOD ENDING WITH
JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER FLOATING AROUND.
KMSP...WITH THE WATER LOGGED SNOWPACK AND SEEING WHAT WE'RE
SEEING FROM RAP SOUNDINGS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING OUTSIDE THE URBAN CORE TONIGHT. WHERE IT'S UNCERTAIN
IS JUST HOW LOW WILL THE VIS GET WITHIN THE HEAT ISLAND AT MSP.
AT THE VERY LEAST, CIGS WILL BE UNDER 500 FEET TO START THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN UNTIL
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. CHC -SN OVERNIGHT. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC IFR/-SN LATE NIGHT. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MVFR. CHC IFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DOUGLAS.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FREEBORN-
GOODHUE-RICE-STEELE-WASECA.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-
POLK-RUSK.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
BARRON-POLK-RUSK.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...MPG
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