789
FXUS63 KMPX 062046
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
246 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF MINNESOTA AND WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW WITH LOW 40S
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
- SNOWFALL CHANCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THOUGH,
ADDITIONAL WOBBLES IN THE TRACK ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
CURRENT RADAR DOES SHOW ONE AREA OF RETURNS OVER BARRON, DUNN, AND
CHIPPEWA COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST STATIONS IN THIS AREA
ARE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. BUT, RCX IS REPORTING "UNKNOWN PRECIP" WITH IT'S
TEMPERATURE AT 32. A SMALL AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL ICE IS POSSIBLE FOR
OUR NORTHERN WI COUNTIES INTO THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HERE UNTIL 3 PM. A MAJORITY OF
THE PRECIP HAS MOVED TO THE EAST, THOUGH, AND OBSERVED LIQUID
AMOUNTS SINCE LAST NIGHT ARE IMPRESSIVE FOR EARLY JANUARY. MUCH OF
THE TWIN CITIES INTO WESTERN WI HAS RECEIVED 0.3-0.7" OF LIQUID,
WHICH IS ALREADY A GOOD PORTION OF OUR NORMAL PRECIP FOR THE MONTH
OF JANUARY. NOW JUST IMAGINE IF IT WERE ALL SNOW...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SN/FZDZ TO WEST-CENTRAL MN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND VISIBILITY. THE WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE, HELPING MELT WHATEVER SNOW COVER IS LEFT AND FAVOR CLOUDIER
SKIES. THE INCREASED MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO
HAVE GONE HEAVIER WITH CLOUD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHERE
IT REMAINS CLOUDY, HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED THE MID 30S. BUT
AREAS THAT DO SEE SUN (PARTICULARLY SOUTHWESTERN MN) COULD SEE HIGHS
JUMP WELL INTO THE 40S WEDNESDAY. AS FOR VISIBILITY, AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF MN AND WI THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND DENSE AS WE GO THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT MAY BE NECESSARY IN FUTURE UPDATES.
AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 20S TONIGHT, FOG WILL LIKELY TURN INTO
FREEZING FOG AND COULD MAKE FOR SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
MILD TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S) WILL PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE THE FIRST OF TWO WINTRY STORM SYSTEMS IMPACTS THE
MIDWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS
CURRENTLY FAVOR THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM EAX TO MKE, WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO PASS QPF FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL
LIKELY START AS RAIN THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE COLDER AIR IS ADVECTED
FROM THE NORTH CHANGING PRECIP OVER TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN
EVENTUALLY SNOW DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH, QUITE A BIT LOW TO
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BEEN NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS MN.
NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM
BUT PERHAPS AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON FRIDAY (UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S) BEFORE MORE COLD AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL ADVECT COLDER
AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE SECOND STORM
SYSTEM'S TRACK LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE FIRST'S, LIKELY EVEN A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES. BUT, THIS
SECOND SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE A BIT STRONGER SUCH THAT FORECAST MODELS
DEVELOP A MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. CURRENTLY HAVE 30% TO
UPWARDS OF 50% POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH ENSEMBLES FAVORING AT LEAST AN INCH ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MN AND INTO WEST-CENTRAL WI. BUT, PROBABILITIES OF AT
LEAST 3" DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN NEARLY ALL OF THE ENSEMBLES
AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS REMOVED WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY POTENTIAL CHANGES BUT IT DOESN'T SEEM
LIKE WE'RE GOING TO GET A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM ANYTIME SOON. A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY BEFORE DRY, MILD WEATHER
COMMENCES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS DONE, THOUGH THE BACK EDGE OF
OUR RAIN SHIELD OVERNIGHT WILL BE CLEARING EAU OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE'S ALSO A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WILL MAKE IT INTO WESTERN
MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIR BETWEEN THE PRECIP
GENERATING CLOUDS AND STRATUS THAT MAY LIMIT ANY OF THIS TO
REACHING THE GROUND, BUT DID ADD BRIEF TEMPO PRECIP GROUPS TO
AXN/RWF TO HANDLE THAT THREAT. AS FOR CLOUDS/STRATUS, NORTHWEST
WINDS WE HAVE NOW WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL LIMIT HOW
FAR EAST THE CLEARING MAKES IT IN MN. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THE CLEARING WILL MAKE IT THROUGH RWF AND AXN, BUT NOT ANY OF
OUR OTHER AIRPORTS. FOR EASTERN MN AND WI, WHERE WE NOW HAVE A
WATER LOGGED SNOWPACK, THIS STRATUS WILL BECOME A DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT, THOUGH IT MAY NOT BE QUITE AS DOOM AND GLOOM AS WHAT
THE HRRR HAS. LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP
TO FINALLY CLEAR THIS STRATUS OUT, WITH THIS PERIOD ENDING WITH
JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER FLOATING AROUND.
KMSP...WITH THE WATER LOGGED SNOWPACK AND SEEING WHAT WE'RE
SEEING FROM RAP SOUNDINGS, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING OUTSIDE THE URBAN CORE TONIGHT. WHERE IT'S UNCERTAIN
IS JUST HOW LOW WILL THE VIS GET WITHIN THE HEAT ISLAND AT MSP.
AT THE VERY LEAST, CIGS WILL BE UNDER 500 FEET TO START THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN UNTIL
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. CHC -SN OVERNIGHT. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC IFR/-SN LATE NIGHT. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MVFR. CHC IFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...MPG
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