594
FXUS63 KMPX 070457
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1057 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF MINNESOTA AND WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING TOMORROW WITH LOW 40S
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
- SNOWFALL CHANCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THOUGH,
ADDITIONAL WOBBLES IN THE TRACK ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
CURRENT RADAR DOES SHOW ONE AREA OF RETURNS OVER BARRON, DUNN, AND
CHIPPEWA COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST STATIONS IN THIS AREA
ARE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. BUT, RCX IS REPORTING "UNKNOWN PRECIP" WITH IT'S
TEMPERATURE AT 32. A SMALL AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL ICE IS POSSIBLE FOR
OUR NORTHERN WI COUNTIES INTO THIS AFTERNOON SO HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HERE UNTIL 3 PM. A MAJORITY OF
THE PRECIP HAS MOVED TO THE EAST, THOUGH, AND OBSERVED LIQUID
AMOUNTS SINCE LAST NIGHT ARE IMPRESSIVE FOR EARLY JANUARY. MUCH OF
THE TWIN CITIES INTO WESTERN WI HAS RECEIVED 0.3-0.7" OF LIQUID,
WHICH IS ALREADY A GOOD PORTION OF OUR NORMAL PRECIP FOR THE MONTH
OF JANUARY. NOW JUST IMAGINE IF IT WERE ALL SNOW...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SN/FZDZ TO WEST-CENTRAL MN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND VISIBILITY. THE WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE, HELPING MELT WHATEVER SNOW COVER IS LEFT AND FAVOR CLOUDIER
SKIES. THE INCREASED MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO
HAVE GONE HEAVIER WITH CLOUD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHERE
IT REMAINS CLOUDY, HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED THE MID 30S. BUT
AREAS THAT DO SEE SUN (PARTICULARLY SOUTHWESTERN MN) COULD SEE HIGHS
JUMP WELL INTO THE 40S WEDNESDAY. AS FOR VISIBILITY, AREAS OF PATCHY
FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF MN AND WI THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND DENSE AS WE GO THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT MAY BE NECESSARY IN FUTURE UPDATES.
AS LOWS DROP INTO THE 20S TONIGHT, FOG WILL LIKELY TURN INTO
FREEZING FOG AND COULD MAKE FOR SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
MILD TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S) WILL PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE THE FIRST OF TWO WINTRY STORM SYSTEMS IMPACTS THE
MIDWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS
CURRENTLY FAVOR THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM EAX TO MKE, WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER,
MODELS DO PASS QPF FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. IF PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT WILL
LIKELY START AS RAIN THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE COLDER AIR IS ADVECTED
FROM THE NORTH CHANGING PRECIP OVER TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN
EVENTUALLY SNOW DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. THOUGH, QUITE A BIT LOW TO
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BEEN NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS MN.
NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM
BUT PERHAPS AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COUNTIES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON FRIDAY (UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S) BEFORE MORE COLD AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT. DEVELOPING NORTHERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL ADVECT COLDER
AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM CENTRAL CANADA. THE SECOND STORM
SYSTEM'S TRACK LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE FIRST'S, LIKELY EVEN A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES. BUT, THIS
SECOND SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE A BIT STRONGER SUCH THAT FORECAST MODELS
DEVELOP A MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. CURRENTLY HAVE 30% TO
UPWARDS OF 50% POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH ENSEMBLES FAVORING AT LEAST AN INCH ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MN AND INTO WEST-CENTRAL WI. BUT, PROBABILITIES OF AT
LEAST 3" DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN NEARLY ALL OF THE ENSEMBLES
AS THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS REMOVED WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY POTENTIAL CHANGES BUT IT DOESN'T SEEM
LIKE WE'RE GOING TO GET A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM ANYTIME SOON. A
SLIGHT COOLDOWN IS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY BEFORE DRY, MILD WEATHER
COMMENCES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
IFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST, THOUGH FAR
EASTERN MN AND ALL OF WESTERN WI REMAIN UNDER THE CLOUD BLANKET.
THE MAIN AVIATION TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IS FOR ISOLATED
DENSE FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE STRATUS, AS
OBSERVED AT AXN AND STC. CONFIDENCE IN THE FOG FORECAST IS
CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN EARLIER TODAY, HOWEVER GUIDANCE WOULD
STILL SUGGEST THAT MOST SITES ALONG I-94 IN MN/WI SEE SOME SORT
OF NOTED VISIBILITY REDUCTION FROM DENSE FOG THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR TIME PERIODS WHERE THE WORST
VISIBILITY IS MOST LIKELY PER THE LATEST RAP/HRRR FORECAST
GUIDANCE. IT'S ONE OF THE NIGHTS WHERE WE'LL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS AND AMD AS NECESSARY BASED ON OBSERVATIONS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK TO AROUND 5-10KTS AND
WILL SUPPORT IMPROVEMENTS. SUSPECT ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR AT
OR AROUND 15Z.
KMSP...HAVE BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING THE EASTWARD ADVANCE OF IFR
STRATUS THAT HAS CLEARED SW PORTIONS OF THE TC METRO. WENT WITH
A MORE OPTIMISTIC TAF FOR THE 03Z AMD, BUT HAVE YET TO OBSERVE
THE CIGS SCATTERING OUT AT MSP. THINK THAT SHOULD OCCUR EARLY ON
IN THE 6Z TAF PERIOD, BUT WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK. INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR 1SM
VISIBILITY FROM 9-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY 14/15Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. CHC -SN OVERNIGHT. WIND N 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. CHC IFR/-SN LATE NIGHT. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MVFR. CHC IFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...STRUS
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