915
FXUS63 KMPX 072021
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
221 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG EXPECTED OVER MAINLY CENTRAL MN
INTO WESTERN WI TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- CHANCES FOR MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MN INTO WESTERN WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT CONTINUE TO
INCREASE.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THE ABUNDANCE OF SUN TODAY HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO ALREADY
OVERACHIEVE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE TWIN CITIES IS NEARING 40
WHILE AREAS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WESTERN MN ARE IN THE MID 40S
AND COULD MAKE A RUN AT 50. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AT LEAST A
FEW MORE DEGREES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CONTINUED SUN.
OVERALL, A VERY NICE, WARM DAY FOR...*CHECKS NOTES*...EARLY JANUARY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WHILE ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG/FREEZING FOG DEVELOPS AND LASTS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. REDUCED
VISIBILITY CURRENTLY LOOKS MOST LIKELY FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN
WI, SO BE PREPARED TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION. ALSO, SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THURSDAY'S HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM OUR NEXT APPROACHING
WINTRY SYSTEM. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MN BY MID
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELS NORTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL IA. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN MN AND INTO WI DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING. AS SAID EARLIER, RAIN WILL PREVAIL
AT FIRST. BUT, AS COLDER AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, WE SHOULD SEE 1-2 HOUR CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN EVENTUALLY SNOW. NEAR AND ALONG I-90 IN
SOUTHERN MN LOOKS TO BE THE AREA WHERE FREEZING RAIN IS MOST LIKELY.
THIS EVENT SETUP DOESN'T HAVE THE MAKINGS OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT
FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS, BUT A LIGHT GLAZE ON SURFACES COULD
DEFINITELY CAUSE TROUBLE FOR THOSE DRIVING THURSDAY EVENING. ONCE
SNOW TAKES OVER, SOUTHERN MN TO WESTERN WI COULD ONLY SEE UPWARDS OF
AN INCH BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM EXITS. DID BOOST SNOW RATIOS A BIT TO
TRY TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY MORE SNOWFALL THAN WHAT NBM WAS GIVING.
STILL, NOT EXPECTING WINTER HEADLINES FOR THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THE WEATHER WILL BE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IF YOU HAVE EVENING
PLANS.
FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CURRENTLY ONLY
HAVE POPS AROUND 20% FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MN. MEANWHILE, A CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD EXTEND WELL
INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THIS SYSTEM, CLIPPING OUR SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN COUNTIES. FORTUNATELY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH
THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WE'LL SEE IS SNOW. BUT, UNFORTUNATELY,
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DON'T LOOK TOO HEAVY WITH 1-2" POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CURRENTLY
LOOK TO BE WELL REMOVED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH ONLY EAU CLAIRE COUNTY
SEEMING TO HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING 3" FROM THIS SYSTEM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM BUT IT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE ANY
WIDESPREAD WINTER HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE AT THE MOMENT.
CAA WILL BRIEFLY FOLLOW THE CYCLONE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND,
FAVORING SUNDAY'S HIGHS BEING IN THE 20S. BUT, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE RETURN OF MILDER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN MONDAY-TUESDAY
AS VAST UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
RIDGING SHOULD EVENTUALLY SET UP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST BUT, LIKELY NOT UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THUS, WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT FOR ANY PROLONGED PERIODS OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE CHANCES OF SNOW FROM CLIPPERS UNTIL AFTER
THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THE WANING IMPACTS FROM MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE
BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT, RESULTING IN NEARLY WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. ANOTHER
ROUND OF BR/FZFG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
HAVE INTRODUCED A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH AXN AND STC
DURING THE EARLY MORNING. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER INTO MID MORNING, DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING. WINDS ARE
OUT OF THE S/SE TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE NNE TOMORROW.
KMSP...A PERIOD OF BR STILL LOOKS LIKELY TONIGHT, PEAKING RIGHT
AROUND SUNRISE. IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE DENSEST FOG
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER NEAR THE
END OF THE PERIOD, WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASING
AFTER 00Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. CHC IFR/-SN LATE NIGHT. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
SAT...MVFR. CHC IFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS BCMG SW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...BED
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