196
FXUS63 KMPX 080535
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1135 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG EXPECTED OVER MAINLY CENTRAL MN
INTO WESTERN WI TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- CHANCES FOR MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MN INTO WESTERN WI THURSDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT CONTINUE TO
INCREASE.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR
EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THE ABUNDANCE OF SUN TODAY HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO ALREADY
OVERACHIEVE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE TWIN CITIES IS NEARING 40
WHILE AREAS ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WESTERN MN ARE IN THE MID 40S
AND COULD MAKE A RUN AT 50. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE AT LEAST A
FEW MORE DEGREES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CONTINUED SUN.
OVERALL, A VERY NICE, WARM DAY FOR...*CHECKS NOTES*...EARLY JANUARY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S WHILE ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG/FREEZING FOG DEVELOPS AND LASTS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. REDUCED
VISIBILITY CURRENTLY LOOKS MOST LIKELY FROM CENTRAL MN INTO WESTERN
WI, SO BE PREPARED TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION. ALSO, SLICK ROAD
CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. THURSDAY'S HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 30S AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM OUR NEXT APPROACHING
WINTRY SYSTEM. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MN BY MID
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVELS NORTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL IA. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN MN AND INTO WI DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING. AS SAID EARLIER, RAIN WILL PREVAIL
AT FIRST. BUT, AS COLDER AIR IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, WE SHOULD SEE 1-2 HOUR CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN EVENTUALLY SNOW. NEAR AND ALONG I-90 IN
SOUTHERN MN LOOKS TO BE THE AREA WHERE FREEZING RAIN IS MOST LIKELY.
THIS EVENT SETUP DOESN'T HAVE THE MAKINGS OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT
FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS, BUT A LIGHT GLAZE ON SURFACES COULD
DEFINITELY CAUSE TROUBLE FOR THOSE DRIVING THURSDAY EVENING. ONCE
SNOW TAKES OVER, SOUTHERN MN TO WESTERN WI COULD ONLY SEE UPWARDS OF
AN INCH BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM EXITS. DID BOOST SNOW RATIOS A BIT TO
TRY TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY MORE SNOWFALL THAN WHAT NBM WAS GIVING.
STILL, NOT EXPECTING WINTER HEADLINES FOR THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THE WEATHER WILL BE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IF YOU HAVE EVENING
PLANS.
FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CURRENTLY ONLY
HAVE POPS AROUND 20% FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS MN. MEANWHILE, A CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD EXTEND WELL
INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THIS SYSTEM, CLIPPING OUR SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN COUNTIES. FORTUNATELY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH
THAT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION WE'LL SEE IS SNOW. BUT, UNFORTUNATELY,
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DON'T LOOK TOO HEAVY WITH 1-2" POSSIBLE FROM
SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CURRENTLY
LOOK TO BE WELL REMOVED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH ONLY EAU CLAIRE COUNTY
SEEMING TO HAVE A CHANCE AT SEEING 3" FROM THIS SYSTEM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM BUT IT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE ANY
WIDESPREAD WINTER HEADLINES ARE POSSIBLE AT THE MOMENT.
CAA WILL BRIEFLY FOLLOW THE CYCLONE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND,
FAVORING SUNDAY'S HIGHS BEING IN THE 20S. BUT, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE RETURN OF MILDER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN MONDAY-TUESDAY
AS VAST UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
RIDGING SHOULD EVENTUALLY SET UP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST, BUT LIKELY NOT UNTIL THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THUS, WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT FOR ANY PROLONGED PERIODS OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE CHANCES OF SNOW FROM CLIPPERS UNTIL AFTER
THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
MIXED BAG OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS FOG/FZ FOG HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTH. FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL SITES EXCEPT
FOR MKT AND RWF AND THEN CLEARING AFTER ~12-14Z. CLOUD COVER
WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES AS OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AXN, STC, AND RWF ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY FOR THIS EVENT. ALL REMAINING SITES CAN
EXPECT A PERIOD OF -RASN THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL -SN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA OCCURS AT MKT HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURE PROFILES DURING THE TIME
OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO START AND THEN
SHIFT NORTHERLY BY DAY BREAK WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 15-20KTS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
KMSP...CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 10Z WITH SCT CIGS JUST UNDER 1KFT. ANY
EXISTING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER 14Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AFTER DAYBREAK. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX
FOR A FEW HOURS MAINLY AFTER 01Z. MENTIONED -RASN FOR NOW BUT WILL
ADJUST -RA AND -SN TRANSITION AS TIMING AND CONFIDENCE INCREASE
BASED OFF OF FORECAST TRENDS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR. CHC IFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS BCMG SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS BCMG W 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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