217
FXUS63 KMPX 080857
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
257 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND FREEZING FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL-EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI THIS MORNING.
- MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
OVER SOUTHERN-EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY LOOKS TO BRING MINOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR MAINLY WESTERN WI.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WITH A 998MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA PROVINCE WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SOUTHWARD-SAGGING COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS ALONG WITH A STRONGER DEVELOPING 997MB LOW OVER EASTERN
CO AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLE AREA. WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS
SITUATED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN SE WINDS UNDER 5MPH WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES BUT MODEST WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS
COMBINATION IS PRODUCING EXPANDING FOG AND FREEZING FOG ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL-EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI, SOME OF WHICH HAS
VISIBILITIES UNDER 1/2SM. THUS, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN PLACE
THRU 9AM THIS MORNING. THE COMPLICATION IS THAT THE FOG WILL BE
SLOW TO LIFT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ATOP A CONTINUED, ALBEIT
DIMINISHING, SNOWPACK WILL NOT ALLOW THE FOG TO DISSIPATE
RAPIDLY AND THUS THE FOG COULD PERSIST INTO LATER THIS MORNING.
AS TO THE MORE BROAD SYNOPTIC PICTURE ALOFT, THE CANADIAN LOW IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT BUT THE
DEVELOPING LOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A MORE POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TODAY, THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT FEATURE, ABSORBING NOT ONLY THE WEAK CANADIAN TROUGH
BUT ALSO NUDGING THE CO/PANHANDLE LOW NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGIONS THROUGH TODAY
THEN PUSHING IT INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE DRAGGED NORTHEAST WITH THIS SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE REALIZED STARTING THIS AFTERNOON IN
SOUTHERN MN, THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
DEEPENING MOISTURE COLUMNS LOOKS TO ELIMINATE ANY THREAT FOR
FZDZ/FZRA AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, THUS THE ONLY PRECIP
TYPES EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RAIN, THEN A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE, THEN ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. QPF LOOKS
TO RANGE FROM 0.1-0.2" LIQUID FROM AROUND MKT UP THROUGH MSP,
WITH CLOSER TO 0.3" LIQUID FROM AROUND ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE.
MOST OF THIS WILL ENTIRELY BE REALIZED AS RAIN DUE TO
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 36-39 DEGREE RANGE AT PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER, AS TEMPERATURES DROP CLOSER TO THE 33-35 DEGREE RANGE
GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS, PRECIP WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW, WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN MN THROUGH WESTERN WI. SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE
LIGHT, RANGING FROM A TRACE TO A HALF INCH FOR AREAS RECEIVING
SNOW.
THE COLD FRONT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
COME DAYBREAK FRIDAY, BRINGING IN COLDER AIR THAT WILL RESIDE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S, WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ALONG WITH SAID COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE A
CLIPPER-TYPE LOW AND A SHARP LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL BREEZE
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEEP UPPER
LOW LOOKS TO FORM OUT OF THE TROUGH RIGHT ATOP THE WFO MPX
COVERAGE AREA SATURDAY, WHICH WILL HELP PROMOTE SNOWFALL
PRODUCTION FOR MAINLY WESTERN WI AND POINTS EAST. THUS, EVEN
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 15-25 DEGREES RANGE ACROSS THE
COVERAGE AREA ON SATURDAY, THE ONLY AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
MINOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE AREAS EAST OF I-35, AND
IN THE RANGE OF 1-2" AT BEST.
DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT (AND POTENTIALLY LONGER) AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN
THE WESTERN CONUS AND SLOWLY SPREADS EASTWARD DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THUS, THIS MEANS THE WEEKEND COLD SPELL WILL
END COME MONDAY AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 35-45 DEGREE RANGE. MINOR
SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY ONWARD, FEATURING A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE, BUT NOTHING STRONG IS EVIDENT IN ANY GIVEN MODEL
SOLUTION. THUS, THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE
MILD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH LOW AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION, IF
ANYTHING IS ACTUALLY REALIZED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
MIXED BAG OF VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AS FOG/FZ FOG HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN SITES WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTH. FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL SITES EXCEPT
FOR MKT AND RWF AND THEN CLEARING AFTER ~12-14Z. CLOUD COVER
WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES AS OUR NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AXN, STC, AND RWF ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY FOR THIS EVENT. ALL REMAINING SITES CAN
EXPECT A PERIOD OF -RASN THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL -SN. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA OCCURS AT MKT HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURE PROFILES DURING THE TIME
OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO START AND THEN
SHIFT NORTHERLY BY DAY BREAK WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 15-20KTS
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
KMSP...CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR FOG DEVELOPING
EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 10Z WITH SCT CIGS JUST UNDER 1KFT. ANY
EXISTING FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER 14Z. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AFTER DAYBREAK. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING A RAIN/SNOW MIX
FOR A FEW HOURS MAINLY AFTER 01Z. MENTIONED -RASN FOR NOW BUT WILL
ADJUST -RA AND -SN TRANSITION AS TIMING AND CONFIDENCE INCREASE
BASED OFF OF FORECAST TRENDS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR. CHC IFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS BCMG SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS BCMG W 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ANOKA-
BENTON-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-
ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LE SUEUR-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE
LACS-MORRISON-POPE-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-
STEARNS-TODD-WASHINGTON-WRIGHT.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...DUNLEAVY
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