872
FXUS63 KMPX 082114
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
314 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S BECOME
COLDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER
SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI. BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM ON SATURDAY LOOKS TO BRING MINOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR THOSE EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE AS OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A CORE OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN IA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MAKING ITS
WAY TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT. THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO
WESTERN WI. THE PRIMARY PRECIP SHIELD IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL IOWA AND WILL CONTINUE MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES STILL RANGING IN THE
MID-30S IN THESE REGIONS, RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT P-TYPE FOR
STARTERS. BUT AS WE CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, RAIN
SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A WET SNOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS
IN COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTH. FORECASTING SNOW
TOTALS FOR THIS EVENT HAS BEEN TRICKY. WITH TEMPERATURES HUGGING
THE FREEZING MARK, THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE IMPACT OF
RAINFALL RATES AND ITS ABILITY TO DYNAMICALLY COOL THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. AS OF NOW, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS
LOOKS TO BE ACROSS WESTERN WI INTO NORTHERN IA. THUS, THE RATE
OF COOLING SHOULD OCCUR FASTER AND ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI. FARTHER
NORTH CLOSER TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO, SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS OF
A HALF INCH OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED. KEEPING IN MIND THAT THE
GRADIENT FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS QUITE TIGHT. SO ANY
DEVIATIONS THE LOW'S TRACK COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON OBSERVED SNOW
TOTALS COME FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS GUSTS WILL ALSO INCREASE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH. NBM STRONGLY
UNDERCUT THESE WINDS, SO DID HAVE TO RELY HEAVILY ON UPPER
DISTRIBUTION OF THE NBM BLENDED WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE.
THIS SYSTEM EXITS WESTERN WISCONSIN BY SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING. FOR AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW, A FEW SLIPPERY STRETCHES
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE HOWEVER SHOULD IMPROVE
AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO MID-30S EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE WILL ALSO MAKE A SHORT CAMEO BEFORE OUR NEXT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES FOR THIS PRECIP EPISODE SHOULD SUPPORT ALL
SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT ONCE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS AREAS
NEAR ALEXANDRIA SEEING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS BEFORE
SUNRISE SATURDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST DURING
THE DAY AND WILL THEN IMPACT AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR UP TO AN INCH OR LESS FOR THOSE AREAS. AREAS CLOSER TO
EAU CLAIRE, WI COULD SEE CLOSER TO AN INCH.
FOR THIS WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS
QUIET FOR A FEW DAYS. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS WARM UP IS EXPECTED
TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS H850 TEMP ANOMALIES HINT THAT COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE OF THIS MONTH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MN THIS AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PRECIP IS EXPECTED
ALONG AND EAST OF A MKT-MSP LINE. RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH
AND/OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW PRIOR TO ENDING. IF/WHEN THIS
TRANSITION HAPPENS WILL DEPEND ON PRECIPITATION RATES. IF THEY
BECOME STRONG ENOUGH, SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO COOL THE VERTICAL
PROFILE, ALLOWING MORE TO FALL AS SNOW. LOWER VISIBILITIES ALSO
DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THE RAIN FULLY TRANSITIONS TO SNOW.
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. CEILINGS WILL DROP TO
MVFR WITH THE PRECIP AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THEN RETURN TO VFR BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS TO BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY.
KMSP...VFR TO START THE PERIOD, WITH A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS AOB
010 POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SEEING THESE
LED TO OMISSION FROM THE TAF. MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON THEN STEADILY LOWER, DEGRADING AROUND THE TIME THAT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE TWIN CITIES METRO BY 5PM. PRECIP
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN, STAYING THAT WAY THROUGH THE EVENING PUSH. A
MIX WITH, AND POTENTIALLY FULL CHANGEOVER TO, WET SNOW THIS
EVENING IS LIKELY BEFORE ENDING. VISIBILITY IS MOST LIKELY TO
DROP DURING ANY POTENTIAL SNOW PERIOD. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED. LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THEREAFTER.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR. CHC IFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS BCMG SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS BCMG W 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUNLEAVY
AVIATION...PV
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