204
FXUS63 KMPX 090712
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
112 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX ENDS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN & FAR-
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT & AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.
- COOLER THIS WEEKEND, BUT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
DEW POINTS & TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED 2-3 DEGREES TOO WARM
FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, SO WE'VE SEEN MAINLY WET WEATHER
WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE OVER FAR-SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA & WESTERN WISCONSIN.
STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN AT TIMES EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM BACK UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS.
MOST HIGH-RESILUTION MODELS DEPICT A NARROW BAND OF SNOW
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW NIGHT, BUT THE
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY ACCUMULATION OF AROUND HALF AN INCH WILL
BE ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA 7 WESTERN WISCONSIN. MORE SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING AS THE WRAP-
AROUND REGION FT THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA, BUT AGAIN,
ANY ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR
LESS. TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEHIND THIS
FRONT, BUT STILL END UP AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S.
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, & GENERALLY STICK AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEK OUTSIDE OF AN EXPECTED SHORTWAVE & COOL-DOWN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE WE'LL HAVE STRONG FORCING ALOFT, THERE JUST
ISN'T MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS A MOISTURE-BLOCKING REGION
OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. MIXED-
PRECIPITATION COULD AGAIN BE AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF
DAY THE PRECIP FALLS, BUT ANY WIN TRY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
PRECIPITATION HAS PUSHED EAST MORE QUICKLY THAN ANTICIPATED SUCH
THAT ONLY EAU WILL SEE -RASN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. DID ADD A
TEMPO AT EAU UNTIL 08Z FOR PERIODIC MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
HEAVIER PRECIP. BUT ONCE PRECIP CLEARS EAST, EXPECT A QUICK
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LIKE THE REST OF THE AREA TERMINALS HAVE
EXPERIENCED WITH HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY DURING FRIDAY MORNING. VFR
IS EXPECTED AREA WIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BUT
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST STARTING EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE
SLOWING DOWN TO 5-10 KNOTS AND TURNING NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS
SLOW TO NEAR OR UNDER 5 KNOTS AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
KMSP...VFR EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
PREVAILING BY 12Z FRIDAY. BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE LATER
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS TONIGHT BUT SLOW
AND TURN NORTHWESTERLY BY SUNRISE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5
KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR. CHC IFR/-SN. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS BCMG SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-10 KTS BCMG W 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...CTG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page